Written by Shahan Ahmed


The Premier League elite currently reside in Manchester. Both Manchester City and Manchester United have separated themselves from the pack when it comes to talent and expectations. Chelsea are hovering close behind the two Manchester clubs. A step below United, City, and Chelsea is the battle for 4th place. Arsenal, Liverpool, and Tottenham fit into this category, but most expect either Arsenal or Liverpool to fill the final Champions League position by season’s end; although, Emmanuel Adebayor’s addition to Spurs may change some opinions.

Yes, only one round of the Premier League has been played, and we are discussing who will finish 4th. Preposterous as it may seem, this second round match will have massive implication on the final Champions League position. The importance of this match to both these clubs cannot be overstated; although, I’ll admit, I am probably overstating it a bit. Saturday is the first round of a heavy weight title fight, and a great deal can happen in the first round of a fight.

Arsenal v Liverpool: Let’s get it on…

Although both Arsenal and Liverpool have the same goals for the season (qualify for next season’s Champions League and win a trophy this season), these two teams are about as different as coffee and milk at the moment. Liverpool seem to have too many options on the bench, and the Reds have spent bag loads to build a big squad for the boss, Kenny Dalglish. Damien Comolli and Kenny Dalglish brought in several talented players with Premier League experience including Charlie Adam (Blackpool), Jordan Henderson (Sunderland), Stewart Downing (Aston Villa), and Jose Enrique (Newcastle). Combined with the return of Alberto Aquilani from a loan spell at Juventus and a nearly fully-fit squad (Steven Gerrard and Glen Johnson are the only injury doubts at the moment), King Kenny has some tough decisions to make every weekend. Further, the Reds are not playing in Europe this season, meaning Liverpool have less opportunities for every player to get into the squad than Spurs, Arsenal, Chelsea, United, City, Fulham, and even Stoke.



Andy Carroll and Luis Suarez expect to be with Liverpool for a long time

In sharp contrast to the Liverpool selection dilemma, Arsenal barely have enough fit bodies to fill the midfield. Arsenal’s end of season collapse led to a mass exodus out of North London over the summer. Gael Clichy left for Manchester City in search of trophies and riches. The Gunners chose not to sign a replacement for Clichy, strengthen the defense, or attract a proven shot stopper. To make matters worse, the Gunners’ strength last season was midfield play, and Arsenal lost their two best midfielders in the last two weeks. Captain Cesc Fabregas finally forced a move to his boyhood club of Barcelona, and Samir Nasri is expected to be announced as a Man City Blue any moment now (However, as of Saturday morning, Samir Nasri is an Arsenal player and so, he is in the squad).

If Fabregas and Nasri were the only departures, the Gunners may still be in confident standing for Saturday’s match at the Emirates. However, the Gunners also lost Denilson (Sao Paulo) and Emmanuel Eboue (Galatasaray), further weakening the midfield and defense. Wait, it gets worse. In contrast to Liverpool’s nearly fully fit squad of players, Arsenal have a lengthy list of banned and injured regulars.



Nasri and Fabregas struck a major blow at Arsenal's chances at ending the trophy drought

Kieran Gibbs took over at left back for Gael Clichy to start the season, but the 21 year-old suffered a hamstring problem against Udinese in Arsenal’s Champions League playoff. Yes, Arsenal played an extra match during midweek and will have to do so again next week, and yes, it is an important tie worth absurd amounts of money to the club. In that same match, Gibbs replacement at left back was Johan Djourou. Johan Djourou lasted only 8 minutes before suffering his own hamstring issue, and Arsene Wenger had to believe he was cursed at that point…well, at the very least, I imagine he was cursing (I hear that’s what he was actually texting down to the Arsenal bench).

With Jack Wilshire and Abou Diaby suffering from serious ankle knocks, Arsenal have to turn to youth players with little or no experience. Arsenal’s sure-fire starters for Saturday include Carl Jenkinson at 18 years, Emmanuel Frimpong at 19 years, Aaron Ramsey at 20 years, Wojciech Szczesny at 21 years, and Theo Walcott at 22 years. With Alex Song and new-signing Gervinho suspended for 3 weeks due to run-ins with Joey Barton last week, 18 year-old Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain may even get a Premier League debut.

With Arsenal playing an important 2nd leg of the Champions League playoff in Italy midweek and away to Manchester United a week from Sunday, the Gunners absolutely need to collect 3 points this Saturday. Despite having all the excuses he needs, if the Gunners go down to Liverpool, United, and miss out on Champions League in an 8 day span, Arsene Wenger’s may face too much pressure to stay on as manager.

To be clear, though, Wenger has done some good business this summer, as usual. Getting a reported £40 million for Cesc Fabregas, who wanted away for years, and another £25 million for Samir Nasri, who was in the final year of his contract and refused to sign an extension, is great business. Gervinho appears to be a good signing, and both Aaron Ramsay and Jack Wilshire seem to possess enough quality to take over the Arsenal midfield. Wenger has sold brilliantly, but he has not signed any proven Premier League talent (as opposed to what Liverpool did, ahem).



Jack Wilshire and Aaron Ramsey are already regulars at the international level

…Back to ‘Pool

Last week, Dalglish’s selection issues were hard to ignore. Dalglish made a surprise start with Suarez, after the Uruguayan was expected to be rested due to a busy summer which included winning the Copa America with Uruguay. Suarez earned a penalty, missed a penalty, and eventually scored the first goal of the season at Anfield to make amends. Sebastian Larsson however, ruined the Reds party with the best goal of the season to this point (DEFINITELY worth watching!).

Dalglish started Charlie Adam and Jordan Henderson in the midfield, and Adam’s service from a set piece delivered Liverpool’s first goal of the season. However, while Kenny was playing with his new toys, he left Raul Meireles and Dirk Kuyt, two of Liverpool’s best performers last season, out of the starting XI. With a trip to the Emirates in his sights, Dalglish will likely revert to Meireles and Kuyt as starters this time around (Suarez, Kuyt, Miereles, and Carroll all started together last season at the Emirates). Adam should hold onto his place, but Henderson and Downing will likely take a seat to make way for the proven Reds.

Projected Starters:

Arsenal
Szezesny-Sagna-Vermaelen-Koscielny-Jenkinson-Frimpong-Ramsey-Nasri-Arshavin-Walcott-Van Persie
Nasri has not completed the move to Manchester, and Arsene Wenger hinted that he would play the Frenchman if he was still a Gunner at kickoff. With the lack of depth, Chamakh may start in place of Arshavin, in which case Van Persie would then drop a bit deeper to collect the ball.

Liverpool
Reina-Agger-Carragher-Enrique-Flanagan-Lucas-Adam-Meireles-Kuyt-Carroll-Suarez
If Carroll or Suarez become tired, expect Kuyt to shift out of the midfield into the attack and allow Downing or Henderson to enter. Downing may start in place of Miereles and Kelly in place of Flanagan, but King Kenny chose Flanagan, Miereles, Kuyt, Carroll, and Suarez to all start last season at the Emirates.

Last Meeting
The last time these teams met, Wenger and Dalglish ended the match by yelling at each other and not shaking hands. It was an eventful injury time that included a penalty for each side and 12 total minutes of stoppage time. Arsenal’s collapse was in full swing when Eboue gave up a penalty & Dirk Kuyt converted in the 102nd minute from the spot.

Notes:
Liverpool have not finished in the top four for a couple of years while Arsenal have not failed to finish top 4 in over a decade.
Last week, both teams dominated possession by controlling the ball for over 60% against their respective opponents. Arsenal’s feat was more impressive as they were the away side at St. James’ Park and still managed 63% possession.
Arsenal’s defense has not given up a goal in 2 matches this season.

AccuScore Computer Predictions
At this point in the season, the computer is mainly using last season's statistics, so predictions are hard to quantify. However, after performing 10,000 simulations using the lineups described above (including Nasri), Arsenal won 45.7% of simulations, Liverpool won 28.1% of simulations, and the teams drew 26.1% of the time. The computer predicted a high scoring affair with Robin Van Persie calculated to score with 48% probability. Samir Nasri was the 2nd most likely scorer with a 29% chance of doing a celebratory jig in what is likely his final match with Arsenal. Andrew Carroll and Luis Suarez were the next most likely scorers with 27% and 25% probabilities of scoring, respectively. Theo Walcott and Dirk Kuyt were the next most likely scorers, and both scored in over 23% of simulations.

With oddsmakers currently offering:
Arsenal: 2.600; Liverpool 3.040; Draw 3.270
AccuScore calculated that oddsmakers currently have Arsenal winning 38%, Liverpool winning 32%, and the teams drawing 30%. As such, the AccuScore Super computer calculated Arsenal to win to have value against the odds, but the draw and a Liverpool win does not. Keep in mind, the vast majority of AccuScore's statistics for this simulation are based on prior year statistics.