By Tomi Rantanen
Can it get better?
Shocking, surprising, unbelievable and historical title won by Leicester last season raises the bar to a whole new level – surely this season can’t match the drama of the last one. But what do you know, they are doing their best with the likes of Jose Mourinho, Pep Guardiola and Antonio Conte taking the reins of the biggest of clubs and bringing in names like Zlatan, Paul Pogba, Leroy Sane and Granit Xhaka. Especially for the humbled Manchester United fans it must be like waking up from a nightmare.
If Leicester’s title last season was beyond all expectations, although Accuscore did place them as high as 9th in pre-season preview, this season any kind of surprise run by an outsider seems absolutely impossible. With all of the top teams growing stronger, the fight for the title will likely be as fierce as ever with the traditional big four (ManU, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool) making a statement, while newer giants Manchester City and Tottenham have proven worthy candidates to lift the trophy at the end of the season.
Accuscore season simulation will see through all the smokescreen, mind-games and pundit banter by providing the most likely outcome of what might be the most interesting Premier League season so far.
Here is how it all adds up after 38 gruesome games for each team:
|
1
|
Manchester United
|
90
|
|
2
|
Manchester City
|
82
|
|
3
|
Tottenham Hotspur
|
77
|
|
4
|
Chelsea
|
75
|
|
5
|
Arsenal
|
66
|
|
6
|
Leicester City
|
63
|
|
7
|
Liverpool
|
62
|
|
8
|
Southampton
|
53
|
|
9
|
West Ham United
|
51
|
|
10
|
Sunderland
|
48
|
|
11
|
Everton
|
46
|
|
12
|
Crystal Palace
|
42
|
|
13
|
Swansea City
|
41
|
|
14
|
Watford
|
40
|
|
15
|
West Bromwich Albion
|
39
|
|
16
|
Burnley
|
35
|
|
17
|
Middlesbrough
|
35
|
|
18
|
Stoke City
|
33
|
|
19
|
AFC Bournemouth
|
30
|
|
20
|
Hull City
|
28
|
Money well spent
Well, it was all worth it in the end. Bring in a manager who has won it all, with a player who has won it all and splash some £160M around to create a championship winning team. According to simulations, Manchester United will take the throne by force after three years hiatus with a comfortable margin to their local rivals Manchester City. It sure looks like Jose Mourinho has all the pieces of the puzzle at hand. City puts in a great effort in Pep Guardiola’s debut season, but have to recognize the superiority of their neighbors, at least for now.
Big is big
Another breakthrough last season, third placed Tottenham Hotspur look to rise for the challenge to keep up with the “bigger” competitors and manage well, repeating the third spot before Chelsea and Arsenal. The young Spurs squad is another year more experienced and likely to have more consistency, which will be needed in order to stay ahead of their rivals. Chelsea, who collapsed to 10th last season are unlikely to repeat the embarrassment with tactical genius Antonio Conte at helm and will make a strong case for Champions League, while Arsenal and Arsene Wenger keep on doing the same they’ve done for years – good, but not good enough.
Not quite there
Gunners do keep Leicester and Liverpool behind, which is not an easy task by any means. Klopp’s promising project continues in Liverpool with a couple of improvements, such as Sadio Mane and Georginio Wijnaldum, and Claudio Ranieri’s Leicester made their case already last season. Amazingly the champions only lost N’Golo Kanté during the summer (so far) and were able to bolster their squad with speedy striker Ahmed Musa, while bringing in Nampalys Mendy from Nice to replace Kante as holding midfielder.
Unsurprising mid-table mediocrity
Mid-table remains as expected, with Southampton and West Ham making the strongest case but not quite pushing through, followed by Sunderland where David Moyes breathes some life into the free-falling team in brink of relegation last year. Everton suffered heavily in John Stones – Ashley Williams tradeoff and have not exactly managed to get any stronger, so the new manager Ronald Koeman is in a tough spot. Crystal Palace, Swansea, Watford and WBA are in a lower half limbo, not quite good enough to make it into top-10 but good enough to stay out of relegation struggles.
Falling from grace
According to the Accuscore simulations, there’s one team underachieving remarkably and that’s last season’s 9th Stoke City. Mark Hughes’ men looked out of place at times last season and are suffering from injuries to start the new one. Addition of Joe Allen might not be enough to keep Stoke up and relegation battle is looming.
It is no surprise to see recently promoted Hull City as the biggest candidate to return to the Championship – the team is probably weaker than the last time they were relegated. Bournemouth’s honeymoon in the big league seems to be over as well, as they no longer have the element of surprise on their side. Losing key players like team captain Tommy Elphick and prolific winger Matt Ritchie to relegated Aston Villa and Newcastle is not a promising sign. Newly promoted Middlesbrough and Burnley manage to stay up, if only by the skin of their teeth. Boro has made the necessary improvements to their squad coming up, while Burnley has grown remarkably better all-around since their last visit.
It will be a fierce battle at the both ends of the table.
