By Shahan Ahmed
During the week, I made a pick for the 1st leg of the Champions League, and I’m happy to say, that I’ve made 2 picks since AccuScore’s knockout-round coverage started, and I’m 2-0. Both times, I picked against Marseille, and both times, Marseille have lost. With that last pick, my overall record is 47-27 with an overall profit of 2,706 units. With only 500 units required in week one, we are now up to 541% Return on Investment. Not bad, if I say so myself.
This week, I have 2 new picks. 1 is a Serie A special and 1 is a Premier League punt. As always, I focus on value, so even if I only get 1of these two picks correct, I’ll have a profitable weekend. Correction: We will have a profitable weekend. Both matches are far from “sure bets” but I see value in both, and I think both results are not only possible but probable.
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Top 2 European Football Picks - Weekend of 31 March, 2012
1. Palermo vs Bologna: Palermo to win at 4.000
Okay, so Palermo haven’t won a single match away from home all season. This means, they are due. Currently, odds makers are offering a Palermo win at a ridiculous 4.000. Okay, so they haven’t won an away match all season, but Bologna are without some key players. Diego Perez, Gaby Mudingayi, and Andrea Raggi are all suspended for Bologna, while Garics and Casarini are both out injured. With Fabricio Miccoli healthy and expected to start. Miccoli has appeared in 23 matches this season, and he has 12 goals and 12 assists in those appearances. This is a great chance for Palermo to break their duck away from home, and if they do, the money is right.
2. Liverpool vs Newcastle United: Newcastle United to win at 3.160
Liverpool have not been a good league side this season. They have focused on cups, and it has shown. The Reds will end the month of March with 1 league win and 4 league losses. Their lone win came at Anfield against a weakened Everton side. Newcastle United’s March results were a more than adequate 3 wins and 1 loss (the loss was away to Arsenal).
Newcastle are 8 points ahead of Liverpool in the table, have been playing with better form, and they are the hosts on Sunday. With all this taken into account, there’s real value in picking Newcastle United to win at 3.160. Put frankly, Newcastle United are better than Liverpool Football Club. However, there is a key defensive injury, as Fabricio Coloccini is not expected to be fit. Cheik Tiote and Papiss Demba Cisse are questionable, but both are expected to play. Both players will be instrumental if Newcastle hope to collect 3 points.
The AccuScore computer seems to agree with my assessment on this match. Currently, odds makers are only giving Newcastle a 31% chance of winning. AccuScore has Newcastle at over 46% to win on Sunday, and I tend to agree with the computer.
Other Key Matches on the Schedule
Manchester City v Sunderland – City need a win and Sunderland are a good team. City should win this encounter, but only 3 points will do for Manchester City. Lucky for City, they’re playing at the Etihad Stadium.
Tottenham Hotspur v Swansea City – Swansea have claimed several major scalps this season. Spurs managed a massive draw against Chelsea last weekend, but the heat could be back on as Chelsea are playing an Aston Villa side that is depleted. If Spurs don’t collect 3 points against a formidable Swansea team, the battle for 4th place could heat up in a hurry.
Osasuna v Real Madrid – Real Madrid have allowed the gap between Barcelona and themselves slip to only 6 points over the past 3 weeks. This weekend, Madrid travel to Osasuna, the site where last year’s team lost 1-0 in a shock result. If that happens again, La Liga will certainly be up for grabs again.
Juventus v Napoli – These two sides will face off in the Coppa Italia final next month, but before that happens, two of the most exciting sides in Italy meet this weekend. If Juve drop points and Milan collect full points this weekend, the gap is Serie A may be too great to overcome. Napoli are certainly capable, so this should be quite a contest. This is the match of the weekend, on paper.
