Written by Shahan Ahmed
Wesley Sneijder in happier times
Arjen Robben, Robin Van Persie, Ibrahim Afellay, and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar all owe Wesley Sneijder a massive apology for ruining his birthday. Sneijder started as the primary playmaker in the Netherlands attack against Denmark on the day he turned 28. He made plays. He set up every available attacking player with perfect passes that could have been turned into masterful goals against Denmark. Instead, his teammates let him down. On Wesley Sneijder’s birthday, the Inter Milan midfielder was the only Dutch player who came to play.
Apart from Wesley Sneijder, none of the Dutch players deserved to sleep well on Saturday night. Sneijder must have had nightmare flashbacks of Arjen Robben missing a World Cup winning chance in 2010. Sneijder delivered the perfect ball, on the biggest stage, putting in one of the top scorers in Europe, one on one with the keeper, and Sneijder wakes up in a sweat.
Click on Image above to see Robben’s World Cup losing miss (backwards)
Along with being haunted by that miss , Arjen Robben has plenty of even fresher nightmares. In his last competitive match prior to the last week’s loss against Denmark, he lost in the Champions League final. Robben missed an extra time penalty against Chelsea in the first overtime of the Champions League final. The match went to penalties. So shattered was his psyche that he did not even take part in the penalty shootout at the end of the match. Bayern Munich lost in that shootout. Robben lost some more hair.
Fast forward to Wesley Sneijder’s birthday, and the Dutch must have been shocked at what happened. Netherlands scored more goals than any other side in Euro 2012 qualifying, 36 goals in ten matches. Klaas-Jan Huntelaar was the top scorer in qualifying for the Netherlands, scoring 12 times in 8 matches. The Hunter was actually the top scorer in all of qualifying for the European Championships. Against Denmark, the best scorer on the Netherlands was sitting on the bench for 71 of the 90 minutes.
Robin Van Persie, Huntelaar’s replacement at the main point of attack had a terrible performance against Denmark. When he seemed destined to score, he slipped. When he took a touch, it was too hard. When he took a shot, it went wide. Van Persie led the English Premier League in scoring with 30 goals in 38 matches. Yes, RVP played every Premiership match for Arsenal this season. This was his first fully healthy season with the Gunners, ever.
After Saturday’s performance, manager Bert Van Marwijk must be wishing Van Persie was hurt. Sitting on the Dutch bench is a man that scored 29 goals in 32 German Bundesliga appearances. Yes, the same man that led the unstoppable Holland attack in qualifying. Perhaps most importantly, Huntelaar plays his club football in Germany (Reminder: the Netherlands are playing against Germany on Tuesday evening in Kharkiv, Ukraine).
Netherlands Team Selection Dilemma:
Would you say ‘no’ to this face? The Hunter
After 70 scoreless minutes versus Denmark, manager Bert Van Marwijk got desperate. Van Marwijk used all three of his substitutions to put in attacking players. Two of his substitutions removed defensive minded players (De Jong and Van Der Wiel), so the Oranje finished with two strikers, two wingers, two attacking midfielders, one defensive midfielder, and only three natural defenders in their Euro 2012 opener. Still, Holland could not score.
The problem for the Netherlands involves team selection. If Bert Van Marwijk wants to keep his job and stay alive in the championships, he must make changes. On his bench, Huntelaar won the German Bundesliga scoring title, scoring three more goals than Germany’s Mario Gomez. The Netherlands can beat Germany, but Klaas Jan Huntelaar must start.
The Netherlands team is built around Wesley Sneijder, so this means that Robin Van Persie should sit to make way for Huntelaar. Robben and Afellay represent good options on the wings, but Rafael Van der Vaart in place of Afellay would also make sense. Afellay coming on as a substitute would likely have more impact late in matches, as the pace he possesses can carve apart tired defenders and midfielders. Afellay did not play poorly enough to warrant replacement, but Robin Van Persie did. The Hunter needs to start.
If the Netherlands had won the opening match against Denmark, the Dutch would likely have walked into the Germany fixture with Huntelaar sitting on the bench. After the loss to Denmark, the choice is obvious. An in-form striker needs to lead the Dutch attack in a game the Netherlands need to win.
Robin Van Persie's future with Arsenal is uncertain but his haircut is not
In his final three Bundesliga matches of the season, Huntelaar scored 5 goals. Although Van Persie scored three times in the final three matches of the Premier League, he had only two goals over his previous 8 matches. Neither striker ended the season out of form, but Huntelaar was hotter and had a better overall scoring rate for club and country.
Upon reaching the Dutch camp this summer, Huntelaar started in a friendly side that featured Van Persie, Sneijder, and Van der Vaart against Bulgaria. That side lost 2-1 and Huntelaar was relegated to the bench because RVP’s 30 Premier League goals and 6 goals in qualifying trumped the Hunter’s 29 Bundesliga goals and 12 goals in Euro qualifying.
Back in late February, the Netherlands visited Wembley on England’s first match in the post-Capello era. There, too, the Oranje started with Robin Van Persie playing ahead of Sneijder and Robben. Dirk Kuyt was the man in place of Afellay, and Kuyt played in an attacking role on the right wing. At half time, that match was 0-0. At that point, Van Marwijk put in the Hunter and took Van Persie off.
By the hour mark, the Netherlands had scored twice with Robben and Huntelaar each collecting a goal. Before the final whistle, Robben scored another, and England scored twice in the final 10 minutes. Van Marwijk should have learned two lessons on that day: the Netherlands defense is far from solid and the Dutch attack scores more often with Huntelaar on the pitch than without him.
Huntelaar says “pick me coach, pick me” to Van Marwijk
AccuScore Computer Analysis: Who Should Start?
Purpose:
To determine which striker, Robin Van Persie or Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, gives the Netherlands the best chance against Germany on Wednesday night
Procedure:
The AccuScore simulation engine played out the Germany v Netherlands match one pass at a time, ten thousand times, based purely on individual player and team statistics. The computer weighted UEFA Champions League and UEFA qualifying performances heavier than domestic performances for the players. For the teams, the computer focused on team results in European Championship qualifying. First, the computer performed 10,000 simulations with Robin Van Persie starting. Then, holding all lineups constant, the computer re-simulated the match 10,000 times with Klaas-Jan Huntelaar starting.
Observations:
Results:
Regardless of who starts, the Netherlands have about a one in 4 chance of winning against Germany. Both Huntelaar and Robin Van Persie are Netherlands’ most likely scorers if they lead the line, but the computer calculates Huntelaar to be slightly more efficient. With the Hunter, the Netherlands have a slightly better average team score, higher winning percentage, and higher likelihood of a draw. With Huntelaar starting, there is over a 50% chance of Netherlands winning or drawing. With Van Persie, the Dutch have a 47.6% chance of winning or tying the Germans. The margin is slim, but the computer thinks the best striker for the Netherlands is Klaas-Jan Huntelaar. Now, let’s see what Bert Van Marwijk thinks…
