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The New England Revolution -- needing a win to stay in the playoff hunt -- host Orlando City SC this Saturday at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. 

Let's take a closer look at where the value's at in this match. 

 

Vegas Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)

  • New England Revolution: 1.49
  • Draw: 4.81
  • Orlando City SC: 5.87

Spread  

  • New England Revolution -1: 1.73
  • Orlando City SC +1: 2.23

Total 

  • Over 3: 1.71
  • Under 3: 2.23

 

What to Watch For 


Betting on the Draw:  Odds -- at 4.81 -- indicate there's under a 20.7 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There's a draw in close to 23 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added value on the draw.


The average score after 10,000 simulations is 2.39 - 1.54, in favor of New England.


Must-Win Situation: New England is coming off a 2-1 loss to Atlanta that put them just a loss away from playoff elimination. These two sides met earlier in the season in Orlando finishing in a 3-3 draw. New England got goals from Juan Agudelo and Cristian Penilla in the first 18 minutes. 


Struggles on Offense: Orlando haven't scored a single goal in the last four games, most recently losing 2-0 to FC Dallas last weekend. 


Head-to-Head: Overall in the all-time series, both sides have two wins, four draws and 18 goals apiece in six games. These two sides last met in New England on Sep. 2, 2017 when the Revolution won, 4-0. 


 

Projected Leaders

Dom Dwyer leads the way for Orlando in AccuScore sims with close to a 44 percent chance to net the ball. He averages over 3.5 shots overall per sim, 1.49 shots on goal per and 0.58 goals per sim. 


Cristian Penilla has the best probability to score for New England at a 48+ percent chance to score. He averages 3,78 shots overall per sim, 1.56 shots on goal per and 0.67 goals per sim. 

 

Analyst's Pick


Orlando +1


Odds -- at 2.23 -- indicates Orlando has a 45 percent chance to keep this game within one goal. Compared to the offshore odds, AccuScore sim data has some added side value on both the visiting team and the draw. 


Orlando either wins the match or earns a draw in over 45 percent of simulations, with the average margin of victory for New England being 0.85 goals.

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