By Pete Kaenmaki

Genoa will have to cope without their usual goalkeeper Mattia Perin due to suspension on Sunday, when they are visiting Torino FC. Instead, Eugenio Lamanna will be between the pipes. It was only in the beginning of December, when we saw Lamanna in a competitive match last time. It was a Coppa Italia away match against lower mid-table side Empoli. Genoa lost that encounter 0-2. It is safe to say that Perin should be the more potential goalkeeper out of these two, but let’s see what influence this change will have on Genoa’s chances.

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Genoa – with Lamanna

After 10,000 simulations our computer tells that Genoa will have a 27.6 percent probability to win Torino on Sunday, which makes them small underdogs. With Lamanna on the pitch visitors will allow 1.07 goals in this fairly underish match.

Genoa – with Perin

Now what would be the case, if Perin wouldn’t be suspended? Would it make any significant difference? Well, after our computer has done its work we can tell that the probability for Genoa against Torino with Perin in goal would actually be 21.5 percent, but the probability of a tie gets bigger (from 32.7 to 34.7 percent) as the match goes even more to the underish direction. Genoa would allow 1.01 goals with Perin between the pipes.

In conclusion, it seems like Genoa shouldn’t worry at all on Sunday. With Perin in goal their chances would actually be clearly slimmer, the difference is 6.1 percent to be exact, so should the head coach Gian Piero Gasaprini also do the math and keep Perin on the bench from now on and let Lamanna show what he’s made of…?