By Tomi Rantanen
Life after Zlatan
PSG is looking for their fifth consecutive championship, but this time they have to do it without Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Last season the Parisians won the league by a margin of 31 points – more than the margin between the runner up Lyon and relegated GFC Ajaccio. Spaniard Unai Emery took the charge after Laurent Blanc failed to deliver the Chapions League title, but not much else has changed in PSG locker room. There’s your one and only favorite to win the French Ligue 1 once again.
PSG’s domination aside, French Ligue 1 is highly unpredictable and always full of surprises. Running a tight budget, most teams have to rely on homegrown talent with occasional “buy low – sell high” transfer. Montpellier was the last team to reach the top as complete outsiders in 2011/2012 season, but it’s unlikely to happen anytime soon again with PSG running the show. But without further ado, let’s take a look how AccuScore’s season simulations see the French Ligue 1 season 2016/17.
Here are the final standings according to AccuScore season simulation:
|
1
|
PSG
|
86
|
|
2
|
Lille
|
75
|
|
3
|
Olympique Lyonnais
|
67
|
|
4
|
Toulouse
|
66
|
|
5
|
Caen
|
62
|
|
6
|
Lorient
|
61
|
|
7
|
Nice
|
57
|
|
8
|
Saint-Etienne
|
53
|
|
9
|
Nantes
|
51
|
|
10
|
Montpellier
|
50
|
|
11
|
Monaco
|
47
|
|
12
|
Angers
|
45
|
|
13
|
Rennes
|
42
|
|
14
|
Bordeaux
|
42
|
|
15
|
Olympique Marseille
|
41
|
|
16
|
Guingamp
|
40
|
|
17
|
Dijon
|
37
|
|
18
|
Bastia
|
36
|
|
19
|
Metz
|
35
|
|
20
|
Nancy
|
29
|
Without Zlatan PSG seems to be a bit less monstrous, albeit taking the league by storm once again. Toulouse and Lorient make a jump to the top third after two seasons of misery, while Monaco is headed for a massive disappointment according to the simulations. Leonardo Jardim’s team got stronger in defense since last year, but there seems to be immense issue with scoring – even with the return of loanee Valerie Germain, who banged 14 goals last season for Monaco’s French Riviera rivals Nice.
The rapid regression of Marseille seems to continue as well, with last season’s 13th spot dipping to 15th. Losing the whole attacking front and key elements from the midfield in two seasons would be disastrous to any team and Marseille suffered just that, although this season sees the return of promising Florian Thauvin from Newcastle.
Newcomers Nancy, Dijon and Metz are likely to end up in the relegation battle, as their teams have not grown any stronger since the promotion. Free transfers and mere backup players from other Ligue 1 teams will not carry far, as was proven by last season’s promoted Troyes and GFC Ajaccio, now returned to Ligue 2. Bastia’s situation is interesting with star player Floyd Ayite gone, but they’ve pulled a rabbit out of the hat by overachieving before.
