By Shahan Ahmed
@perfectpass on Twitter
Last weekend, I made 2 massive longs-shot picks, and both won. 100 units placed on each pick returned a profit of 516 units. That’s profit, I just said. All told, I’m now +3,222 units and 644% Profit on the season. My soccer picks record is now 49-27, and I don’t pick matches that don’t offer even money or close to it. Still not sure that I know what I’m doing? Your loss.
This week, I’ve made 2 more picks. One pick is for the Bundesliga encounter involving Stuttgart and Mainz, and the 2nd is for a Premiership match involving Fulham and Bolton Wanderers.
I watch football for a living, and my work asks me to make picks. I take pride in my ability to pick winners and make massive profits for AccuScore members, but I don’t always agree with the computer. However, sometimes the computer gets it right, and I get it wrong. In the case of this week’s picks, the computer and I are in complete agreement. And yes, these are both value plays again. Anyone can put down 100 units to make 20 on Barcelona at the Camp Nou. I look to double my risked amount every week…last week, we nearly quadrupled it! Even if I only get 1 of the two picks correct this week, we all still make a profit. So here we go…
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Top 2 European Football Picks - Weekend of 7 April, 2012
1. Fulham v Bolton Wanderers: Fulham to win at 2.840
Fulham are 48% to win according to the AccuScore computer compared to the bookies, who currently have Fulham at 34.7%. In fact, the bookies give Bolton 36.6% to win, while AccuScore only give the home side 27.0% to win. Bolton are without Ricardo Gardner among others, while the emotion of the Fabrice Muamba incident is beginning to level out.
Yes, Fulham are a horrifically poor side away from Craven Cottage, but they are in a recent spell of good form. They looked like a good side at Old Trafford 2 weeks ago and returned home to claim 3 points. There’s value here, and that’s all we care about.
2. Mainz v Stuttgart: Stuttgart to win at 2.040
Stuttgart put together one of the best performances of the season in a 4-4 draw away to Dortmund last weekend. With the confidence of holding the Bundesliga champions and current league leaders in their Dortmund fortress, Stuttgart return home. This season, Stuttgart have won 7 in 14 at home, while Mainz have only won 2 in 14 away from home.
AccuScore’s simulations currently give Stuttgart a 66% chance of winning, which is significantly higher than the bookmakers, who have VfB Stuttgart at only 47%. There’s value here, and Mainz are not a poor side, but taking into account that there’s even money on offer for a strong home side against a poor away side, pick Stuttgart to win.
Other Key Matches on the Schedule
Tottenham v Sunderland – After Newcastle United won on Friday, the pressure on a top 4 spot is really on. Currently, Spurs and Arsenal are holding on, but a slip up at the Stadium of Light could prove detrimental. Sunderland are a team in form at the moment, and Spurs are beginning to find their form too. This should be a smashing contest.
Lazio v Napoli – Only 3 points separate these sides in the table, and Napoli can level Lazio with a win for a highly coveted 3rd place spot by the end of the weekend. This year, Italy will only send 3 teams to the Champions League, so this is kind of a big deal.
Wolfsburg v Dortmund – All of a sudden, Dortmund are only 3 points up on a steaming Bayern Munich. A trip to the VW is never an easy ask, and Dortmund will need to collect all 3 points.
Arsenal v Manchester City – Nothing really needs to be said. Just tune in and hope for some magic.
Real Madrid v Valencia – Madrid is top, Valencia is third. Madrid should roll through Valencia, but that doesn’t matter. This is the highlighted matchup of the round in La Liga…as an honorable mention, Sevilla v Athletic Bilbao should be a cracker.
