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Euro 2016 Update: Germany Still Tipped to Win

The European Championships in France have reached the knockout round, which means the tournament format is set for the remainder of Euro 2016. So, AccuScore played out each match 10,000 times to make predictions and formulate probabilities for each team to advance. As was predicted before the tournament started, Germany is still the computer’s pick to win the competition, but ending up on the side of the draw with Italy, Spain and England complicates the road to victory. Still, the Germans expect to come out ahead.

Here’s how the computer projects Euro 2016 to go:



Of course the biggest match of the Round of 16 is Spain against Italy. However, the computer doesn’t think the Italians will be able to outmaneuver the Spanish skill. Spain won 64 percent of simulations, though this is still the closest margin of victory on that side of the draw. A 1-0 victory for Spain is the most likely outcome. On the opposite side, Croatia and Portugal actually provide the narrowest margin, with Croatia knocking out Cristiano Ronaldo and company with a 58.1 percent probability.

In the quarterfinals, Germany expects to overpower Spain, while France expects to put down England to set up a monster semifinal between the World Cup holders and the hosts of Euro 2016. On the opposite side, Belgium’s depth expects to overcome Gareth Bale and Wales, while Croatia should be too much for Robert Lewandowski and Poland.

The computer projects Croatia versus Belgium to be the closest match of the knockout rounds, with the Belgians only edging Croatia by a 50.9 percent to 49.1 percent difference over 10,000 simulations. Germany topping France is hardly a guarantee, but 60.6 percent of simulations saw Germany advancing to its second straight major Final.

In the Euro 2016 Final, Germany’s manager simply outclasses Belgium’s manager, as the experience of winning shines through. Germany averaged 1.4 goals over 10,000 simulations compared to 0.99 goals for Belgium. This is not a one-sided final, but Germany is clearly the better side, according to the computer.

AccuScore has expert picks for every match of the 2016 European Championships Click Here for all Euro 2016 Picks

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