Written by AccuScore Staff
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Euro 2016 Pick: Germany Over England
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The 2016 UEFA European Championships in France kicks off on the 10th of June, and Accuscore is again putting its sports prediction simulation models to play out the tournament. England, Spain, Germany and France are the four teams that fight through and emerge from the rubble, as the computer projects the four footballing superpowers to advance to the semifinals.
Coincidentally, these four semifinalists match the oddsmakers’ four shortest odds. Per Sky Bet, France offers 3/1 odds, followed by Germany at 7/2, Spain at 11/2 and England at 9/1. In the model, Germany beats out France, while England surprisingly edges out Spain.
Germany and England, therefore, offer the best value to win the 2016 European Championships. In the simulated final, Germany prevails and builds upon its 2014 World Cup to claim dominance as the greatest team of an era. As the outright winner, Accuscore is projecting Germany to confirm its 2014 World Cup with a 2016 European Championship.
Euro 2016, which involves 24 of Europe’s top national sides, begins on the 10th of June at the Stade de France in Saint-Denis, which is a suburb of Paris, and ends in the same stadium on the 10th of July. With the squads announced, Accuscore simulated each match of the tournament 10,000 times from the opening whistle of the first match to the final whistle of the final.
Accuscore simulations predict few surprises, with all the top teams progressing through to the knockout rounds. Iceland’s rise to 2nd place may surprise casual fans, but 37-year-old Eidur Gudjohnsen captained Iceland to victories over Netherlands, Czech Republic and Turkey in qualification, including a home and away sweep of the Netherlands. As such, Iceland should not be taken lightly.
Europe’s top team according to FIFA rankings, Belgium, on the other hand was not as impressive in the group stages. Missing the defensive backbone of Vincent Kompany is a blow, with Eden Hazard’s nightmare of a season having an impact, as well. Belgium advances, but finishing second puts the Belgians in a tough spot.
The knockout stage is set in a way that group winners face other group runner-ups. Still, there are already a couple of intriguing matchups developing. This is how Accuscore’s simulation engine predicts the first knockout stage (the winner is in green and the numbers are win percentage):
The first knockout phase sees Belgium ousted by prolific Portugal, while Italy ends Croatia’s tournament and Iceland, yet again, surprises Russia. A couple of the games projected to be incredibly tight affairs, and it’s likely we’ll see extra time and possibly even a penalty shootout or two.
While the first knockout stage included a couple of quite uneven matchups, the round of 8 there’s no clear underdogs. Except for one.
The top quality European sides seem to clear the 2nd round as well, albeit it is closer than the previous round. The host France finally puts an end to Iceland’s marvelous run, while England finally makes it to last four. Germany and Italy are likely to take the long route through extra time, as are Spain and Poland, who could complete the upset if Robert Lewandowski gets into one of his scoring grooves.
The semifinals are decided by the smallest of margins as England stuns Spain and Germany’s well-oiled machine steamrolls bleu-blanc-rouge. According to simulations, the final many have been waiting for decades will happen as eternal foes England and Germany square off in a repeat of the 1966 World Cup final.
According to Accuscore simulations, the final will follow the more recent trend and end as yet another nightmare for the English. Germany stands too strong yet again and takes the trophy home following a fierce final battle.
Once again, Gary Lineker’s immortal words live strong:
“Football is a simple game. Twenty-two men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win.”
