Written by Shahan Ahmed

After the first go around of group play, it’s time to discuss some opening game observations and make some picks…

4 Things We Learnt from the first 4 days of Euro 2012

First, Andriy Schevchenko is a great host. At 35, the oldest striker in the tournament started in front of his home fans in his home city and brought Ukraine back from 1-0 down to win 2-1. Both Shevchenko’s goals were headed efforts, but his will to get to those balls and his ability to guide the perfect headers had nothing to do with age. It was all experience and class. Sheva’s performance was the shining moment of the first 4 days of group play. It was poetry to start the tournament with co-hosts Poland knocking one in via Robert Lewandowski and finishing the 1st round of matches with co-hosts Ukraine scoring twice via Shevchenko.

Second, five teams failed to collect any points. Two of those teams are seemingly out of the tournament after only 1 match: Ireland and Czech Republic. Ireland lost to Croatia in spectacular fashion. Considering the Irish have matches against Italy and Spain remaining, the Irish players should probably leave their bags packed because it will be a short stay. The Czech Republic was embarrassed by Russia in a 4-1 loss. The Russians looked strong on the break, but the Czech defense was nonexistent. Russia could have scored twice as many goals but for some incredible missed chances. The other three teams that failed to get anything in their opening fixutes—Sweden, Portugal, and Netherlands—played well enough to collect a point or even three but simply failed to do so. This is football, after all. All three of these teams are still alive, but none have an easy route to the quarter-finals.

Third, it has become clear that many of these teams do not understand how to properly employ their strikers. Spain opted to start absolutely no strikers in their opening fixture against Italy. Before Cesc Fabregas finally scored, he missed boatloads of chances a natural striker like Llorente or Negredo would bury—not Fernando Torres, though.
Italy opted to start Mario Balotelli and Antonio Cassano. Although Cassano played well, it took Antonio Di Natale, who has led Italy in scoring goals two of the past three seasons, coming on to finally put one away. It was actually Di Natale’s first touch that resulted in Italy’s only goal, and Di Natale doesn’t belong on the bench of any club or international team.
Netherlands didn’t start Klaas-Jan Huntelaar despite him being the leading goal scorer in qualifying (more on that coming tomorrow). And thus, the Netherlands were unable to break through and score even once despite putting up nearly 30 shots on the day.
Even Russia stumbled in their decision to start Kerzhakov. Kerzhakov missed several golden opportunities and couldn’t even get one of his 7 shots on goal. Roman Pavlyuchenko came on at the 73 minute mark, assisted on a goal, and put 2 shots on target, including one of the best goals of the tournament to this point. Should Pavlyuchenko start? Yes.


Di Natale has been the best Italian striker for the past few years

Fourth, only five teams collected 3 points with a win, and the teams sitting in pole position a third of the way into the group stage are not necessarily the ones most expected: Russia, Germany, Denmark, Croatia, and Ukraine. Apart from Russia and Germany, the other three were not top choices to advance out of group play by most experts, pundits, or book makers. Due to an especially attractive opening fixture list, heavyweights Spain played Italy and England faced France; both matches ended 1-1.

Now, it’s time to look ahead and make some picks.

A look ahead to the next 4 days

Tuesday: Russia vs Poland

Russia is not only the strongest side in Group A, but Andriy Arshavin’s men put together the best overall performance of any team in the tournament to this point. Russia can defend, break with pace, and score in the blink of an eye. Facing a host nation is a tough proposition, so this match should be a true test of Russia’s intentions and ambitions for Euro 2012.


Alan Dzagoev scored twice & is known as the Russian Messi

Wednesday: Germany vs Netherlands

Germany is still a tournament favorite, but the Germans started slow. Jerome Boateng did a good job of muzzling Cristiano Ronaldo, but Portugal was able to get into dangerous positions far too frequently. Also, Germany scored late to steal three points when one point would probably have been the fair result. Netherlands, however, was not as lucky as Germany. Despite bossing the majority of the match and Wesley Sneijder providing ‘world class’ attackers with the perfect passes, the Dutch attack failed to find a breakthrough against Denmark. Robin Van Persie was the worst in the bunch. With Huntelaar on the bench, Bert Van Marwijk has options, and he should explore them (ahem).


Bert Van Marwijk will take a long look at starting Huntelaar

Thursday: Spain vs Croatia

Italy attacked and challenged Spain throughout the 90 minutes of its opening match. After proving that the World champions were not invincible, Italy now takes on the group leaders, Croatia. Croatia showed that they have the ability to score, possess the ball, and dominate a match. Breaking down Ireland, however, is completely different than breaking down Italy.

Friday: England vs Sweden

England play ugly. However, that style should not be confused with incompetence. Zlatan Ibrahimovic, for all his magnificence, has the reputation of occasionally being isolated and losing interest in matches. In England’s match against France, Karim Benzema found himself surrounded by four or five defenders at a time, leaving the Real Madrid striker frustrated. He started taking shots from distance, as he was a completely isolated figure in the box. England will look to do the same to Ibrahimovic, and Sweden is desperate for some points. Sweden’s run in the championships depends on this match.

Expert’s Pick

Last week, I picked Germany to win at 2.160. Germany won, so I'm 1-0 for Euro 2012. This week, I’m making another new pick, so if you’re a member, sign in NOW and you’ll see a pick below. If you’re not a member, well, you should know that my picks have provided significant profit over the past two seasons. I pick winners, so join AccuScore for a year using the coupon code “euro2012” to get 30% off membership…or just try AccuScore Free for 7 days. See if you like it:

Russia to win at 2.440
I think Russia is for real, and Poland didn’t show me much after the 1st half to make me think Poland can beat a team that is in the form Russia currently has. Even with the home crowd advantage, Russia should be able to put a few past Poland’s third choice keeper.