Written by Shahan Ahmed
Analyst PICKS
Since the first Manchester derby of the season where I picked City to win, I have made picks nearly every week this season (I missed 1 week due to personal reasons). The first week required 500 units of investment, and currently, my picks have a record of 45-26 with a profit of 2,492 units (nearly 500% Return on investment). If you’re a member, sign in to see this week’s picks. If you’re not a member, try AccuScore Free for 7 days and get access to Expert Picks, analysis and forecasts for every Premier League, Serie A, Bundesliga, La Liga, and Champions League match this season.
3 Picks this week starting with Chelsea v Spurs: LOG IN NOW!
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur:
Pick: Chelsea to win at 1.901
The computer doesn’t agree with me, but I think Chelsea will win. Simple and plain. Chelsea are playing better football, and despite some unrest in the camp, this is about as good as things have been at Stamford Bridge in quite some time. Speaking of Stamford Bridge, that’s where this match is taking place, so expect the Blues to use that to their advantage. Perhaps, they will over heat the visitor’s locker room again. Heck, even Torres is playing well, but I expect Drogba to start this one.
Sunderland vs Queens Park Rangers:
Pick: Sunderland to win at 2.11
AccuScore believes these odds are just about where they should be, so this isn’t a value play in the traditional sense, but considering you’re getting better than even odds for Sunderland at home with Steven Sessegnon back in the lineup, there’s value for me here. Also, Sunderland got an extra day of rest than QPR for this fixture, so I think there is value in that fact alone.
Espanyol v Malaga:
Pick: Malaga to win at 3.03
Malaga have a better team than Espanyol. Both teams are tired because both played on Thursday with Malaga coming from behind to win 3-1, while Espnayol gave up a lead and drew 1-1 with Real Betis. Yes, Malaga have a terrible away record with only 3 wins in 14 away matches, and Espanyol have only lost 4 of 16 in Barcelona. However, this is the 3rd match in 7 days for both sides, and frankly, Malaga have more to play for: the Champions League. Also, Malaga’s last away match was a 1-1 draw against Real Madrid, so this team is capable of winning away from home. At these odds, the computer disagrees with the oddsmakers pretty dramatically. Oddsmakers currenty give Malaga a 32.3% chance of winning while AccuScore gives Malaga a 45.8% chance of winning. Yup, there’s value here.
Back to Spurs v Chelsea...
Tottenham Hotspur have not been “hot” for quite some time. In fact, Spurs have only won one Premier League match since February started, nearly 2 full months ago. In the FA Cup, Spurs were not able to put away Stevenage in the 5th round of the FA Cup and had to conquer the 3rd division club on the replay at White Hart Lane. Including that FA Cup Replay, Harry Redknapp’s side have only managed 2 wins in their last 8 matches.
How bad have Spurs been? Well, they haven’t claimed 3 points in an away Premier League fixture since the 27th of December, 2011. The only away fixture Tottenham have won since the New Year was an 1-0 victory over Championship side Watford. To put Spurs away form in perspective, Watford are currently 15th in the Championship and have a less than exemplary home record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses in the CHAMPIONSHIP! Tottenham struggled to a 1-0 win.
Somehow, though, Tottenham are still in fourth place and in line for a Champions League berth. Arsenal, Spurs’ North London rivals, have now surpassed Spurs in play and in points. Meanwhile, Chelsea are a mere 5 points back with 9 matches remaining in the campaign. This weekend, Tottenham Hotspur travel to Stamford Bridge to face a revitalized Chelsea side and a win for either side is vital for a Top 4 finish.
Since the departure of AVB, Chelsea are playing like a top side worthy of a top 4 finish and with a real chance of advancing to the final four in Europe. Fernando Torres is no longer looking like he’s walking in the park unsure of how a ball rolls, and John Terry is back in the side rather than on an operation table. David Luiz is playing like he did at Benfica, who incidentally are Chelsea’s next opponents in the Champions League. Frank Lampard is happy, Michael Essien is healthy, and Juan Mata is, well, still good. Chelsea are a respectable product once again.
Chelsea have their swagger back, and it all starts in the back. Since AVB was sacked, the Blues have won four of five matches. Their only loss came away at the Etihad Stadium, where Manchester City have won 15 from 15 in the Premier League. Chelsea took a first half lead against City, but Samir Nasri’s outstanding performance and the return of Carlos Tevez were a bit too much for the London club to overcome.
Still, Chelsea played well and showed good energy. Tottenham have some doubts entering the match in terms of who is available, as has often been the case over the past few months. After all the praise heaped onto ‘Arry for the England job, Redknapp has been inconsistent if not downright incompetent in his team selections during Spurs’ recent woes. During the midweek, he got his team selection right, in my opinion, but Tottenham lacked the creative energy that had them playing the best football in the Premier League, arguably, for much of the season.
