Written by Shahan Ahmed

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This is a detailed breakdown of probable formations, tactics, predictions, and lineups for Saturday's Champions League final

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Bayern Munich got thrashed in the DfB Pokal Final (German Cup) to Borussia Dortmund. The Bavarians were handled quite easily and suffered their 5th straight defeat to Dortmund, a club record. Chelsea, on the other hand, won the FA Cup two weeks ago. After the FA Cup victory, Chelsea went on to finish the Premier League in 6th place with a 4-1 loss to Liverpool and a 2-1 win against Blackburn. In the win against Blackburn, John Terry and Raul Miereles scored, but both are suspended for the final.

AccuScore Computer Prediction:

Bayern Munich 2-1 Chelsea


AccuScore has game forecasts for every major European football league
Note:these results assume Olic and Torres come on as subs

Probable Lineups

Bayern Munich
4-2-3-1
Neuer, Contento, Boateng, Tymoshchuk, Lahm, Kroos, Schweinsteiger, Ribery, Muller, Robben, Gomez

Chelsea
4-3-3 but really a 4-5-1 (Drogba alone up top)
Cech, Cole, Luiz, Cahill, Bosingwa, Lampard, Mikel, Essien, Mata, Kalou, Drogba

Suspended Players:

Due to the accumulation of yellow cards and an idiotic knee from John Terry, several key players are suspended for both sides.

Be sure to check out my less technical and more colorful Champions League Preview

Chelsea

Chelsea has 4 suspended players: Ramires, John Terry, Branislav Ivanovic, and Raul Miereles. These key players pose a real problem for Chelsea’s squad.

David Luiz and Gary Cahill look set to recover from their respective injuries in time for the final, so the middle of Chelsea’s defense will not be in complete shambles due to John Terry’s idiotic red card in the semi-finals. If either of the two is not good to go, Jose Bosingwa would move into the middle of the Chelsea defense from the right back position.

Bosingwa is currently expected to start at right back for the suspended Branislav Ivanovic. However, Roberto Di Matteo has the option of employing the 33 year-old Portuguese full back Paulo Ferreira. At the moment, Chelsea’s back four looks to be Cole, Cahill, Luiz, and Bosingwa.

The suspensions of Ramires and Raul Miereles pose a serious problem. Solomon Kalou will likely start in the more attacking role that Ramires was playing since Di Matteo took over, but Chelsea will lose something defensively from the change. Miereles would likely have been Ramires’ replacement if the Portuguese midfielder wasn’t also suspended.

Ramires was the key to Chelsea’s only goal at Stamford Bridge against Barcelona, and he scored a tremendously important short-handed goal in the 2nd leg at the Camp Nou. Both goals relied on the Brazilian’s speed on the counter attack. Unfortunately, Chelsea doesn’t have a midfield replacement that can offer the constant hard work Ramires brings to every match. More than likely, the likes of Florent Malouda or Michael Essien will have to enter the fray.

Malouda was the most likely replacement, but he was not able to complete a half against Blackburn last weekend, so Essien is set to feature with Lampard and Mikel in a defensive look for Chelsea. Sturridge and Romeu are options, but Di Matteo has sided with experience over youth since taking over and neither has featured. Also, there is the option of playing Torres and Drogba in tandem, but starting an extra attacker may be suicide. Torres will likely come on to join Drogba later in the match as a replacement for Mata.

Added Tactics:

Unfortunately for Chelsea, Bayern’s strength is attacking the wings, and Chelsea do not have pace available on the wings. Rather than expecting Chelsea to come out in a 4-2-3-1, expect the Blues to play a 4-5-1 and use Mata and Kalou to help support in the wide areas. This match may not be pretty to watch, but Chelsea will hope to pack in the middle and launch Kalou and Mata on quick counters fed by Lampard. Bayern’s defense is weak due to suspensions, and even when it is at full strength, it’s not that great against a pacey counter. Dortmund proved that fact with a 5-2 drubbing last weekend against a “full strength” Bayern back 4 (that’s why Dante is expected to join Bayern before next season).

Bayern Munich

Bayern has 3 suspended players for the Final: David Alaba, Holger Badstuber, and Luis Gustavo Dias. However, Bayern is better equipped to deal with the missing players than Chelsea is.

Alaba will likely be replaced by Diego Contento, a 22 year-old German left back. The 19 year-old Alaba was converted into the left back position and sparked Bayern to a late run in the domestic and European competitions. Bayern also has the option to switch Philip Lahm to left back and start Rafinha, but manager Jupp Heynches showed his hands in the final Bundesliga match of the season by starting Contento rather than Rafinha. Contento played well in the Bundesliga finale, so the Munich native expects to start in the biggest match of his life.

Holger Badstuber’s suspension is a bit more hurtful for the German club with Daniel Van Buyten not having made an appearance since January due to injury. Anatoliy Tymoshchuk is expected to fill the role in the heart of the defense, but the Ukrainian captain certainly did not impress in Bayern’s 4-1 Bundesliga finale against Cologne. Although Cologne only scored once, Tymo was caught out on more than a couple occasions. The likes of Didier Drogba may not be as kind as Cologne was. Still, Tymo has played in this role several times over the past two seasons, so Bayern should be comfortable with the change in personnel.

The suspension of Luis Gustavo Dias will likely move Toni Kroos back into the holding midfielder role alongside Bastian Schweinsteiger in Bayern’s preferred 4-2-3-1 set up. This should allow Thomas Muller to return into the starting lineup in an attacking position between Ribery and Robben. Muller started in this role for most of the season, so Bayern, overall, are equipped to deal with the forced changes.

Added Tactics:

With Chelsea likely packing it in and playing on the counter, expect Schweinsteiger to get forward and support the attack. Since returning from injury, Schweinsteiger has strayed a bit further forward than he did earlier in the season. He has even been spotted playing on the attacking wing, as he did when he first broke into the German national team. Also, with the right side of Chelsea’s defense exposed, expect Ribery and Bayern to focus on exploiting Bosingwa.