Written by Shahan Ahmed
Follow @perfectpass

Last weekend, I went 2-1 with 214 units of profit (assuming 100 units were placed on each pick). Now, my soccer picks are 47-27 on the season with an overall profit of +2,706 units. Considering the 1st week only required 500 units (i.e. 5 picks) and we’ve never dipped into negative territory, all of you who have been following along religiously are +541% profit.

I’ve only made 1 official Champions League pick this season, and it was during the 2nd leg of the round of 16. I picked Inter Milan to win the match against Marseille. They did, although it was not as most imagined. With the Quarterfinals of the UEFA Champions League set to start on Tuesday night, I have one pick that I think is worth sharing for the 1st leg. AccuScore has forecasts and Expert picks made by the AccuScore simulation engine on every UEFA Champions League Match, but occasionally, I disagree with the computer. I mean, look at my record, and tell me I don’t know what I’m doing. That’s not a typo. I’m +541% profit this season on games I pick and choose.

My strategy is a combination of Value, expertise, and odds. If I determine there is value in the odds and I have expert knowledge of a team, I make a pick. My picks must pay out on even odds or pretty close to even odds, or it’s just not worth my value. You don’t go +2,706 & 500+% ROI by betting on Barcelona to beat Getafe at the Camp Nou. Every bet assumes only 100 units at stake. So, enough of the explanation, let’s get to my expert pick for the 1st leg of the UEFA Champions League Quarterfinals:

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Bayern Munich v Marseille: Bayern Munich to win at 1.840

This is about as low as I’ll go in terms of odds not offering value. However, 84 units for 100 unit wager is still worth it when I look at Bayern Munich winning against Marseille. Inter Milan were hardly the same caliber of side as Bayern Munich are, and Inter Milan were extremely unfortunate not to win the 1st leg. Bayern Munich have been on fire recently.

Since a loss to Bayer Leverkusen the 3rdof March, Bayern Munich have scored 22 goals and only conceded 2. Last weekend, the Bundesliga big boys decided to rest some key figures, including leading goal scorer Mario Gomez and forward Thomas Muller. Bayern still won 2-1 and with some key players getting rest, they should be up to the challenge of winning in France. Marseille, on the other hand, drew 1-1 on Saturday to Nice.

Incidentally, Marseille have not won a match since the 1st leg of the round of 16 versus Inter Milan, over a month ago. An inform side with better quality versus an out of sorts side that should never have progressed out of the Round of 16 means value for me. The computer doesn’t agree in a value sense, but often, I disagree with the computer, and I’m not doing too badly am I? The computer still has Bayern winning as the most likely result at 41%. Marseille won’t win, and Bayern Munich should win and score goals. Take Bayern at 1.840.