By Tomi Rantanen

Ronaldo fit to play - or not?

Madrid derby in Champions League final is undoubtedly the highlight of the European club football. Both clubs missed out on the domestic title, as Barcelona snatched it before their eyes on the last rounds. Winning the Champions League would definitely ease the pain.

Real Madrid heads to the final as favorites, but there might be some dark clouds looming over the horizon: reports tell that Real’s leading goal scorer Cristiano Ronaldo took a knock last week and limped off the ground. While various sources claim the Portuguese striker is well and fine, his fitness might cause some concern.

Ronaldo scored 16 goals and assisted on 4 in this year’s Champions League campaign, hence being part of almost 70% of Real’s 29 goals scored. But just how important can one player be, especially for a club of Real’s stature?

According to Accuscore’s simulations, crucial. With Ronaldo in the lineup Real Madrid is a clear favorite, with a 53.2% chance to lift the trophy already after 90 minutes of play and ~73% probability to win it eventually, taking overtime and/or penalties into consideration. In simulated games the Galacticos score 1.66 goals on average, while Atletico bangs in 0.90.

Without Ronaldo, however, things start getting hairy for Zidane’s underlings. The lack of prolific scorer, all due respect to Karim Benzema and Jese, might turn out to be a massive problem against Atletico’s concrete defensive wall. With Ronaldo’s absence the goals scored estimate for Real drops to 0.99 while Atletico still finds the net on average 0.80 times.

If Ronaldo is unable to play, according to Accuscore’s simulations Real is still favorite to win after it’s all settled – but with remarkably lower probability of 52.5%.