Written By Shahan Ahmed
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Simulation Analysis
The forecast calls for Barcelona to average 1.92 goals to Chelsea's 1.46 goals. Barcelona win 48% of simulations at Stamford Bridge, so a Barcelona win is the most likely outcome. They draw 23.3% and lose 28.7%. Messi is 59% to score and averages 0.89 goals per match across 10,000 simulations. If he scores, which AccuScore deems likely, Barcelona's likelihood of winning barely increases to 63%. According to the computer, the value is on Chelsea to win at 5.43 and the draw. It's hard to argue considering the odds, but it's also hard to bet against Barcelona. The computer was right about Bayern Munich winning 2-1 (also a hard bet to make), so I'm not one to argue with the computer. Personally, I'm not picking against Barcelona; the computer is.
Part 1: This is NOT a Messi Love-fest
Let’s ignore the fact that Messi has 63 goals this season. Let’s also pretend that he isn’t Barcelona’s leading all-time goal scorer at the tender age of 24. Sure, he’s got 41 goals in La Liga, and he’s already set the single-season Champions League mark at 14, but Messi‘s specialty is using his individual talent to score the ball with his team, not individually.
When Barcelona embarrassed Real Madrid 5-0 at the Camp Nou, Messi didn’t score. However, Messi did have 2 exquisite assists and played an integral role in that match. Messi and Barcelona won. Lionel Messi makes it his task to score the ball, but that does not mean he has to be the one getting the final touch. This season, Messi has 13 assists in La Liga, only trailing Mesut Ozil (15) and Angel Di Maria (14), and the little magician should have plenty more but for some horrific misses by his teammates. Believe it or not, Messi’s 63 goals could be a great deal higher if he was a bit more selfish.
Messi’s greatness is not simply that he touches, chips, curls, and smashes the ball into the back of the net. His true greatness is that he wills, caresses, cradles, and passes the ball in the perfect position for it to be scored. Whether it is from his luscious left foot or a fine finish off a teammate is of no consequence to him. Rarely does one see Messi blast a shot from 30 yards because Messi knows he can get closer, and he does get closer.
He certainly isn't as pretty as Cristiano Ronaldo
This is not the place to come for a Messi love-fest, but he is magic, that little one. He recently surpassed a meaningful 50 goal mark in the UEFA Champions League. At 24, he has already bettered Thierry Henry in goals. Consider how incredible Henry was with Arsenal (and Barcelona). Yes, at 24 years, Messi has eclipsed the legendary Thierry Henry’s career Champions League mark. That thought hurts my head too. Messi’s brilliance is both mind-boggling and head-hurting.
Is that a hoodie?!
This is the point when this could turn into a Messi love-fest, but no, that isn’t necessary. Instead, I’ll simply reflect on my favorite Messi performance in the historic 51:
On April 6, 2010, Lionel Messi hit Arsenal for 4 at the Camp Nou. It was a special set. Messi was spectacular. He was incredible. It was vintage Messi. I’ll never forget watching that match because Messi made me laugh out loud. I laughed because there were no words to describe what I was watching. Messi’s individual domination was ineffable.
[Contrary to what my name may suggest, I don’t speak a lick of Arabic. However, even I know what the commentator in the following link is saying every time Messi bangs one home: on the first, he screams “God” over and over again in hysterics; on the second, the disbelief concludes that Messi must be a video game; on the third, Theo Walcott’s face and hands say it all; and on Messi’s magical fourth against Arsenal, “Super Hat-trick.”]
Part 2: Chelsea Must Win at the Bridge…and Win BIG!
As much as every Blues fan would consider him or herself lucky with a 1-0 or a 0-0 at Stamford Bridge against Barcelona, watching that clip should remind everyone that Barcelona at the Camp Nou is a nightmare for opponents. Barca rarely disappoints on a big night in Catalonia. The last time Barcelona disappointed at home was in the 2nd leg of a Champions League semi-final against Inter Milan, 2010. Even on that night, Barcelona won. The score was 1-0 on the night, but Messi and company failed to advance to the final.
A Champions League night at the Camp Nou
To find Barcelona’s last European loss at home, one would have to go back to a 2-1 group stage defeat to Rubin Kazan in October 2009. Currently, we are in April of 2012. Since the loss Rubin Kazan—some two and a half years ago—the defending European Champions have played 15, won 11, and drawn 4 in European contests at the Camp Nou. During this stretch, they have defeated their opponents by an average of 2.13 goals per game. This year’s average margin of victory is even higher.
This season, Barcelona out-scored their opponents by 14 goals in 5 European contests at the Camp Nou. Let me reiterate that Barcelona did not score 14 goals in 5 matches; Barca outscored their opponents by 14 goals in 5 matches. Messi and friends have scored 18 goals, and never less than 2, in 5 matches at the Camp Nou during the 2011-12 Champions League campaign. Barcelona will score in the second leg.
What this means is that Chelsea must attack Barcelona on Wednesday night. If the Blues don’t take a (healthy) lead into the second leg, Chelsea will enter the Camp Nou as a sacrificial lamb for 99,000 bloodthirsty fans. In that position, few (if any) avoid humiliation and decapitation. Barcelona are not perfect. Even the best team in the world can be rattled, as Arsenal showed last season at the Emirates.
Click the image to see Essien's wonder goal in 2009
Chelsea, however, have a couple matchup advantages that they can exploit in order to potentially rock Barcelona in the first leg. Barcelona will likely win possession, so Chelsea will have to attack on the counter, but they must attack with purpose and direction.
Regardless of who leads the line for Chelsea, the Blues have a matchup advantage. Didier Drogba’s physical size and strength should be too much for the Gerard Pique, who is not having the best season of his career, and Javier Mascherano, who is not a natural central defender. If Torres gets the nod, he should grow even more confident and comfortable facing a familiar opponent; Pique and Torres trained against each other for years with the Spanish National Team.
As much as Chelsea’s “Old Guard” continues to perform in big matches, one of the best matchups for the Blues derives from their young Brazilian workhorse. Ramires, playing as the right attacking midfielder in a 4-2-3-1 formation, has the pace to attack an older and slower Carles Puyol at left back. The former Benfica man runs tirelessly with pace until the final whistle, and Puyol should not be able to keep up with him on quick counters up the right side. If Chelsea hope to earn a result, launching attacks through Ramires will be key. Chelsea have a fighting chance, but let’s not be fooled into thinking they’re favorites. They’re not.
This image gives Blues fans instant nightmares
It’s finally here: another Barcelona and Chelsea semi-final. History and controversy aside, this should be a special match pitting two contrasting styles: power against finesse. Barcelona can redeem their tainted 2009 semi-final victory, and Chelsea can redeem their current campaign. With Torres involved, redemption is always on offer. More likely, though, Barcelona will enter Stamford Bridge and draw blood only to complete the slaughter at the Camp Nou. Regardless, the drama and characters involved promise to deliver a football feast on Wednesday night.
Probable Lineups:
Chelsea:
Cech- Cole, Terry, Cahill, Ivanovic - Lampard, Mikel- Kalou, Mata, Ramires- Torres
Barcelona:
Valdes-Puyol, Pique, Mascherano, Alves- Xavi, Busquets, Fabregas-Iniests, Messi,Alexis
Segments of this article appeared at Champions League . CA
