Brazil vs. Germany: Brazil Without Neymar & Thiago Silva

Brazilian superstar Neymar’s fractured vertebrae shook the world and crushed the spirit of the host nation. With Brazilian captain Thiago Silva also suspended, Brazil’s hopes of winning a World Cup on home soil took a serious hit at the semifinal stage of the captain. How big of a hit?

The actual impact of the injury and suspension will be seen during Tuesday’s semifinal, but with AccuScore’s simulation engine, we can use statistical models to estimate the impact the injury and suspension will have on the semifinal.



With Neymar and Silva included in the starting lineup, AccuScore’s computer simulated the semifinal against Germany 10,000 times. With the unavailable duo, Brazil had a 50.4 percent probability of advancing to the final. Meaning, Brazil was the favorite to go through had Silva and Neymar both been about to play against Germany.

Removing only Silva, Brazil still managed to be the favorite at 50.1 percent probability of advancing to the final. That mainly has to do with Silva’s replacement, Dante, having strong experience as center back at Bayern Munich. Six of Germany’s starters against France were Bayern Munich players, so some may even take having Dante in the middle of the defense as a slight advantage against the Germans.

Without Neymar and Silva, however, Brazil’s chances to advance drop to 41 percent explaining how vital Neymar is to Brazil. When included in the simulations, Neymar has a 32 percent chance of scoring. That is level with Germany’s Thomas Muller for most likely scorer in the game. Without Neymar, the likes of Hulk and Fred become Brazil’s most likely scorers.



With Neymar, Brazil average 1.3 goals per game. Without Neymar, that number drops to 1.1 goals per game.

In conclusion, AccuScore’s computer calculates the effect of Neymar’s injury being far more detrimental to Brazil’s hopes than Siva’s suspension. In any case, Germany is now the favorite to advance.

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