By Pete Kaenmaki

One often hears hobby punters tell their facts - for instance a certain team would collapse completely without their big star. Sometimes that might be the truth, especially when we talk about amateur leagues or smalltime clubs in bigger leagues. We at Accuscore can use our statistical models and calculate different kind of probabilities for different kind of scenarios. On Saturday evening Atalanta will host AS Roma in their Serie A clash and the true Giallorossi icon Francesco Totti will be sidelined due to a suspension. Alessandro Florenzi is most likely to stunt. Now, let’s set the records straight and run our engine.

Reminder: For every Serie A match, AccuScore has Serie A Betting Picks and updated Odds

Roma – without Totti

After 10,000 simulations Accuscore’s computer tells us that without Totti Roma are big favorites even at away pitch with a 62.2 percent chance of winning the match. Notable thing is that market offers slightly over 50 percent probability for the same event… According to our magic machine La Maggica will net 1.29 goals.

Roma – with Totti

Now, let’s see if our hobby punter friends have it right. How wounded AS Roma actually are without Il Maestro? Well, the truth is Accuscore’s computer says that with Totti Roma would score 1.17 goals, which is a good 0.12 goals less(!) than without him. Probability for away win drops also to 59.7 percent! Our models also calculated the likelihood for Totti to score in this match-up, if he would be able to join the action. Totti would find the net with a probability of 23 percent.

In conclusion, one shouldn’t always put too much weight on one injury or suspension in football, especially when we talk about bigger leagues and teams. Totti is a fantastic football artist and a true legend, but even he, at his age, is fully replaceable in AS Roma.