Who'd be the next Monaco?

Last season saw Ligue 1 finally provide a new champion as AS Monaco repeated their deed from year 2000 and showing PSG aside from the throne. Monaco’s magical run both domestically and in Europe will definitely encourage other teams to walk in their footsteps by acquiring and nurturing rejects from top clubs – and then selling them back with a hefty profit.

As PSG is once again a heavy favorite to win it – now with the world record transfer of Neymar all but complete, last season proved that money can’t always buy titles. In addition to Monaco, the trio of Lyon, Marseille and Nice are once again there to make things difficult for the Parisians. On the downside, Lyon and Monaco both lost a handful of key players after successful seasons, but their systems should produce enough talent to stay competitive. In addition, LOSC Lille has splurged some £60M in the transfer market and brought in heaps of talent, including Brazilian wonderkid Thiago Maia.

Behind the top-6, Ligue 1 is as close as ever, with most of the teams possessing enough raw talent to surprise their superiors. It remains to be seen which teams have found the next Mbappes, Lemars and Fabinhos.

With Accuscore’s season simulations, we can predict the course of the Ligue 1 season based on current lineups. As there's still about a month of transfer window left, teams might yet go through some transformations but the relative strength is likely to stay the same.

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Here’s how Ligue 1 will look like after it’s all said and done:

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In Accuscore simulations, we are returning to the rule of Paris Saint-Germain. They have, by far, the best quality team in Ligue 1 but it remains to be seen will they rather put their efforts in continental football tha domestic league, like they did last year. It didn’t work out, but now the team is even better – at least on paper. They are the clear favorites, but this time the challengers know the throne can be usurped.

The departures of Monaco’s key players will be felt and their element of surprise has passed as well. They’ve managed to fill the holes in the lineup with quality replacements, but it’s unlikely they can pull off another heist like last season. Still, they are in contest as is Marseille. Fallen out of their former glory, Marseille has managed to grow stronger from last season, when they were lacking especially in goal scoring department. Full season of midfield masterminds Dmitri Payet and Florian Thauvin with Valeré Germain up front just might be enough to fix the issues in the final 3^rd.

Lyon suffered similar losses as Monaco, but already they’ve produced young talent to take bigger roles and they’re hungry after last season’s close call. Nice, on the other hand has been able to hold on to their key players, with a couple of additions. They’re definitely in the mix, if not challenging for the title at least going for Europe.

At the bottom it’s anyone’s game, but according to simulations newly promoted Troyes will be the bottom feeder. Troyes seems to be making the exact same mistake as last time they won promotion – and won all of three Ligue 1 games that season. They’ve barely strengthened their squad at all and with experienced Ligue 1 sides fighting for their lives by the relegation zone, the quality of 2^nd tier players is just not enough. The other two candidates for relegation are Starsburg and Amiens, who also got promoted for this season. They have managed to acquire some much needed quality and are likely to put up a serious fight before going down.