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Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl 2018: Arizona State versus Fresno State

College Football bowl season is here! 41 games, including the playoffs and the CFP National Championship start on Saturday. Accuscore has predictions for ALL bowl games, and we’ll start with Fresno State (11-2) against Arizona State (7-5) at Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl.

Las Vegas Bowl 2018

Fresno State is the only ranked team (No. 25) playing on opening day of the bowl season. They are a solid favorite with a 69% chance to beat Arizona State according to AccuScore.

All of AccuScore's College Football Bowl Picks

Fresno State’s sophomore RB Ronnie Rivers is projected for 53 rushing yards and a 48% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. He has earned the number one running back role during the second part of the season and has recorder around 500 yards in his last 7 starts. In particular, Fresno State has relied heavily on their passing attack. QB Marcus McMariyon has completed 3,453 yards with 25 TDs and only 3 interceptions. Simulations project close to 250 passing yards for McMariyon on Saturday.

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In the 31% of simulations where Arizona State wins, their QB Manny Wilkins averages 1.57 TD passes vs 0.3 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.79 TDs to 0.49 interceptions. He hasn’t been able to put similar numbers as McMariyon or even replicate last season's statistics. The last two games, especially, against Oregon and Arizona haven’t been very good for him as the completion % dropped to 47% and 58% respectively.

In 12 games of the season Arizona State RB Eno Benjamin has been able to gather over 1,500 rushing yards, but he may need to surpass his average per game so far for a win as simulations predict averages 125 rushing yards and 1.16 rushing TDs when Arizona State wins and 115 yards and 0.68 TDs in losses.

Fresno State has a 26% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 81% of the time. Based on Accuscore simulations Fresno State has 58% probability to cover -4 line set up by Vegas.

NCAAF PREDICTIONS

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NCAAF
Totals Pick

  Over 55

65.2%
Spread Pick

 LOU -3.5

69.2%
76.0%
76.0%
23.9%
23.9%
Side Value
LOU  11.46%

Money Line
LOU  76.0%


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NCAAF
NCAAF - Top Free Betting Trends

No data available

TREND RECORD UNITS
O/U: Sim vs Vegas Diff 4 to 4.5 (Last Season) 130-112, 53.7% 680
Total Betting Line 50 to 53.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 14-7, 66.7% 630
SUN BELT NON-CONF Totals (Past 2 Weeks) 10-4, 71.4% 560
Total Betting Line 65 or More (Season) 8-3, 72.7% 470
PAC 12 CONF Totals (Last Season) 30-24, 55.6% 360
AAC NON-CONF Totals (Past 2 Weeks) 10-6, 62.5% 340
AAC CONF Totals (Last Season) 23-18, 56.1% 320
CONF USA CONF Totals (Season) 3-0, 100% 300
O/U: Sim vs Vegas Diff 5 to 5.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 5-2, 71.4% 280
SUN BELT CONF Totals (Last Season) 16-12, 57.1% 280
O/U: Sim vs Vegas Diff 3 to 3.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 11-8, 57.9% 220
Total Betting Line 57 to 59.5 (Season) 12-9, 57.1% 210
ACC CONF Totals (Past 2 Weeks) 2-0, 100% 200
Total Betting Line 60 to 64.5 (Last Season) 57-50, 53.3% 200
INDEPENDENT NON-CONF Totals (Past 2 Weeks) 3-1, 75% 190
Total Betting Line 40.5 or Less (Past 2 Weeks) 3-1, 75% 190
3 STAR O/U Past Month 15-12, 55.6% 180
Total Betting Line 44 to 46.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 5-3, 62.5% 170
O/U: Sim vs Vegas Diff 0.5 TO 1.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 7-5, 58.3% 150
ACC NON-CONF Totals (Past 2 Weeks) 10-8, 55.6% 120

No data available

TREND RECORD UNITS
PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 6 or More (Last Season) 32-17, 65.3% 1330
Road Favored by 7 to 9.5 (Last Season) 33-20, 62.3% 1100
SUN BELT NON-CONF PS (Last Season) 36-23, 61% 1070
MAC CONF PS (Last Season) 26-14, 65% 1060
PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 3 to 3.5 (Last Season) 114-94, 54.8% 1060
Road Favored by 10 or More (Last Season) 53-42, 55.8% 680
MWC CONF PS (Last Season) 27-19, 58.7% 610
Home Favored by 14 to 19.5 (Last Season) 42-33, 56% 570
PS: (Last Season) 359-322, 52.7% 480
Home Favored by 7 to 9.5 (Last Season) 33-26, 55.9% 440
AAC CONF PS (Last Season) 24-18, 57.1% 420
INDEPENDENT NON-CONF PS (Past 2 Weeks) 4-0, 100% 400
PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 5 to 5.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 5-1, 83.3% 390
CONF USA CONF PS (Season) 3-0, 100% 300
Home Favored by 10 to 13.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 5-2, 71.4% 280
MWC NON-CONF PS (Past 2 Weeks) 7-4, 63.6% 260
MAC NON-CONF PS (Last Season) 19-16, 54.3% 140
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