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Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl 2018: Arizona State versus Fresno State

College Football bowl season is here! 41 games, including the playoffs and the CFP National Championship start on Saturday. Accuscore has predictions for ALL bowl games, and we’ll start with Fresno State (11-2) against Arizona State (7-5) at Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl.

Las Vegas Bowl 2018

Fresno State is the only ranked team (No. 25) playing on opening day of the bowl season. They are a solid favorite with a 69% chance to beat Arizona State according to AccuScore.

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Fresno State’s sophomore RB Ronnie Rivers is projected for 53 rushing yards and a 48% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. He has earned the number one running back role during the second part of the season and has recorder around 500 yards in his last 7 starts. In particular, Fresno State has relied heavily on their passing attack. QB Marcus McMariyon has completed 3,453 yards with 25 TDs and only 3 interceptions. Simulations project close to 250 passing yards for McMariyon on Saturday.

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In the 31% of simulations where Arizona State wins, their QB Manny Wilkins averages 1.57 TD passes vs 0.3 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.79 TDs to 0.49 interceptions. He hasn’t been able to put similar numbers as McMariyon or even replicate last season's statistics. The last two games, especially, against Oregon and Arizona haven’t been very good for him as the completion % dropped to 47% and 58% respectively.

In 12 games of the season Arizona State RB Eno Benjamin has been able to gather over 1,500 rushing yards, but he may need to surpass his average per game so far for a win as simulations predict averages 125 rushing yards and 1.16 rushing TDs when Arizona State wins and 115 yards and 0.68 TDs in losses.

Fresno State has a 26% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 81% of the time. Based on Accuscore simulations Fresno State has 58% probability to cover -4 line set up by Vegas.

NCAAF Picks

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NCAAF
NCAAF - Top Free Betting Trends

No data available

TREND RECORD UNITS
CONF USA NON-CONF Totals (Last Season) 32-11, 74.4% 1990
SEC NON-CONF Totals (Last Season) 27-13, 67.5% 1270
Total Betting Line 54 to 56.5 (Last Season) 62-45, 57.9% 1250
ACC NON-CONF Totals (Last Season) 28-16, 63.6% 1040
AAC NON-CONF Totals (Last Season) 24-14, 63.2% 860
MAC NON-CONF Totals (Last Season) 26-17, 60.5% 730
MWC NON-CONF Totals (Past 2 Weeks) 6-0, 100% 600
Total Betting Line 50 to 53.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 6-0, 100% 600
O/U: Sim vs Vegas Diff 2 to 2.5 (Last Season) 32-25, 56.1% 450
BIG 10 NON-CONF Totals (Last Season) 24-18, 57.1% 420
O/U: Sim vs Vegas Diff 3 to 3.5 (Last Season) 106-94, 53% 260
ACC CONF Totals (Last Season) 30-25, 54.5% 250
BIG 12 NON-CONF Totals (Last Season) 14-11, 56% 190
SUN BELT NON-CONF Totals (Past 2 Weeks) 5-3, 62.5% 170
Total Betting Line 65 or More (Last Season) 62-55, 53% 150
O/U: Sim vs Vegas Diff 0.5 TO 1.5 (Last Season) 31-27, 53.4% 130

No data available

TREND RECORD UNITS
PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 3 to 3.5 (Last Season) 129-97, 57.1% 2230
Home Favored by 10 to 13.5 (Last Season) 39-26, 60% 1040
Home Favored by 14 to 19.5 (Last Season) 41-28, 59.4% 1020
SEC CONF PS (Last Season) 31-20, 60.8% 900
Home Favored by 20 or More (Past 2 Weeks) 12-3, 80% 870
Home Favored by 7 to 9.5 (Last Season) 33-23, 58.9% 770
Spread of -4 to +4 (Last Season) 93-78, 54.4% 720
PS: (Past 2 Weeks) 25-17, 59.5% 630
ACC NON-CONF PS (Last Season) 27-19, 58.7% 610
BIG 12 NON-CONF PS (Last Season) 16-9, 64% 610
SEC NON-CONF PS (Last Season) 24-17, 58.5% 530
MAC CONF PS (Last Season) 27-21, 56.2% 390
BIG 10 NON-CONF PS (Past 2 Weeks) 7-3, 70% 370
PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 4 to 4.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 8-4, 66.7% 360
ACC CONF PS (Past 2 Weeks) 3-0, 100% 300
CONF USA NON-CONF PS (Last Season) 25-20, 55.6% 300
PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 0.5 TO 1.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 5-2, 71.4% 280
2 STAR PS Past 2 Weeks 8-5, 61.5% 250
3 STAR PS Past 2 Weeks 8-5, 61.5% 250
AAC NON-CONF PS (Last Season) 21-17, 55.3% 230
Road Favored by 10 or More (Last Season) 56-49, 53.3% 210
Road Favored by 4.5 to 6.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 2-0, 100% 200
AAC CONF PS (Last Season) 25-21, 54.3% 190
Home Favored by 4.5 to 6.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 3-1, 75% 190
MAC NON-CONF PS (Past 2 Weeks) 4-2, 66.7% 180
MWC NON-CONF PS (Past 2 Weeks) 4-2, 66.7% 180
SUN BELT NON-CONF PS (Past 2 Weeks) 5-3, 62.5% 170

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