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Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl 2018: Arizona State versus Fresno State

College Football bowl season is here! 41 games, including the playoffs and the CFP National Championship start on Saturday. Accuscore has predictions for ALL bowl games, and we’ll start with Fresno State (11-2) against Arizona State (7-5) at Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl.

Las Vegas Bowl 2018

Fresno State is the only ranked team (No. 25) playing on opening day of the bowl season. They are a solid favorite with a 69% chance to beat Arizona State according to AccuScore.

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Fresno State’s sophomore RB Ronnie Rivers is projected for 53 rushing yards and a 48% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. He has earned the number one running back role during the second part of the season and has recorder around 500 yards in his last 7 starts. In particular, Fresno State has relied heavily on their passing attack. QB Marcus McMariyon has completed 3,453 yards with 25 TDs and only 3 interceptions. Simulations project close to 250 passing yards for McMariyon on Saturday.

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In the 31% of simulations where Arizona State wins, their QB Manny Wilkins averages 1.57 TD passes vs 0.3 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.79 TDs to 0.49 interceptions. He hasn’t been able to put similar numbers as McMariyon or even replicate last season's statistics. The last two games, especially, against Oregon and Arizona haven’t been very good for him as the completion % dropped to 47% and 58% respectively.

In 12 games of the season Arizona State RB Eno Benjamin has been able to gather over 1,500 rushing yards, but he may need to surpass his average per game so far for a win as simulations predict averages 125 rushing yards and 1.16 rushing TDs when Arizona State wins and 115 yards and 0.68 TDs in losses.

Fresno State has a 26% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 81% of the time. Based on Accuscore simulations Fresno State has 58% probability to cover -4 line set up by Vegas.

College Football expert picks Arizona State football Fresno State NCAA football expert picks College football top trends Las Vegas Bowl 2018

NCAAF PREDICTIONS

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NCAAF

NCAAF

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NCAAF - Top Free Betting Trends

No data available

TREND RECORD UNITS
TOTALS (Past 2 Weeks) 63-45, 58.3% 1350
SEC CONF Totals (Season) 19-11, 63.3% 690
2 STAR O/U Past 2 Weeks 19-12, 61.3% 580
Total Betting Line 60 to 64.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 9-4, 69.2% 460
O/U: Sim vs Vegas Diff 3 to 3.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 15-10, 60% 400
SUN BELT CONF Totals (Past 2 Weeks) 6-2, 75% 380
PAC 12 CONF Totals (Past 2 Weeks) 7-3, 70% 370
Total Betting Line 57 to 59.5 (Season) 34-28, 54.8% 320
Total Betting Line 47 to 49.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 13-9, 59.1% 310
O/U: Sim vs Vegas Diff 5 to 5.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 5-2, 71.4% 280
Total Betting Line 44 to 46.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 6-3, 66.7% 270
Total Betting Line 54 to 56.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 6-3, 66.7% 270
3 STAR O/U Past 2 Weeks 7-4, 63.6% 260
BIG 12 CONF Totals (Past 2 Weeks) 8-5, 61.5% 250
Total Betting Line 50 to 53.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 10-7, 58.8% 230
CONF USA NON-CONF Totals (Past 2 Weeks) 3-1, 75% 190
INDEPENDENT NON-CONF Totals (Past 2 Weeks) 3-1, 75% 190
O/U: Sim vs Vegas Diff 2 to 2.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 3-1, 75% 190
SUN BELT NON-CONF Totals (Past 2 Weeks) 3-1, 75% 190
Total Betting Line 65 or More (Past 2 Weeks) 3-1, 75% 190
O/U: Sim vs Vegas Diff 4 to 4.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 26-22, 54.2% 180
O/U: Sim vs Vegas Diff 0.5 TO 1.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 5-3, 62.5% 170
ACC CONF Totals (Past 2 Weeks) 8-6, 57.1% 140
O/U: Sim vs Vegas Diff 6 or More (Past 2 Weeks) 9-7, 56.2% 130

No data available

TREND RECORD UNITS
PS: (Past 2 Weeks) 78-63, 55.3% 870
Spread of -4 to +4 (Past 2 Weeks) 36-25, 59% 850
AAC CONF PS (Past 2 Weeks) 12-4, 75% 760
Home Favored by 10 to 13.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 7-0, 100% 700
PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 4 to 4.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 34-25, 57.6% 650
2 STAR PS Past 2 Weeks 30-22, 57.7% 580
BIG 12 CONF PS (Season) 24-17, 58.5% 530
SUN BELT CONF PS (Season) 12-7, 63.2% 430
Home Favored by 7 to 9.5 (Season) 26-20, 56.5% 400
Home Favored by 20 or More (Past 2 Weeks) 5-1, 83.3% 390
MWC CONF PS (Past 2 Weeks) 7-3, 70% 370
BIG 10 CONF PS (Past 2 Weeks) 10-6, 62.5% 340
INDEPENDENT NON-CONF PS (Season) 12-9, 57.1% 210
PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 5 to 5.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 2-0, 100% 200
MAC CONF PS (Past 2 Weeks) 6-4, 60% 160
PS: Sim vs Vegas Diff 2 to 2.5 (Past 2 Weeks) 9-7, 56.2% 130
File Name Sile Size Creation Date
NCAAF_ARCH
IVE.xls		 3.05 MB 11.06.23