The Oklahoma City Thunder will return to the NBA Finals for the first time since the Durant-Westbrook era. It was not written in the stars – it never is in sports – yet it felt predictable right through the season that OKC would make it to the NBA Finals.

It was predictable before the season started. OKC ticked every box bettors look for going into a season: An upward trajectory, valuable Playoff experience from the previous season, smarting roster additions, players at their peak, and players ready to improve.

They were favorites in the NBA Playoff odds to conquer the Western Conference, and they will be favorites to take the first NBA Championship since the franchise was located in Seattle in 1979. It feels like a clockwork season, where everything goes as planned. Of course, that doesn’t mean they will win, but there has been a logical pathway for the best team in the NBA (backed up by the stats) to get over the final hurdle.

Similarities with the dominance of the 2024 Celtics

There are certainly similarities with the Boston Celtics of last year in terms of expectations. The two teams are vastly different – OKC is young, rising out of a rebuilt, high-scoring, whereas the Celtics’ championship run of 2024 was characterized by vet experience and a multi-year push for a title – yet the feeling around them was pretty similar. Everyone – or at least most pundits – expected the Celtics to go all the way in 2024, and there’s a similar consensus around OKC today.

So, why does this matter? In sports and sports betting, there are times when the obvious pick is the correct one. The Lakers in 2001, Miami Heat in 2013, GSW in 2017, and the Celtics last year were all teams nailed on for championships. You can point to other sports, too: The New England Patriots at Super Bowl LI and Barcelona in the 2011 UEFA Champions League.



There are times when sportsbooks get it wrong. Look how badly the Philadelphia 76ers flopped this season despite being among the favorites for the 2025 NBA Championship. Yet, it was abundantly clear that things were not right earlier in the season. You can point to a similar story for the San Francisco 49ers in the NFL the season past—a bad season, which became apparent straight out of the blocks.

OKC quickly silenced any doubters

OKC, meanwhile, came roaring out of the gates in the 2024/25 NBA season. By the end of December, the team was 27-5. Arguably, that was the point where hesitant bettors should have struck. Yes, you can argue that plenty of bettors would have backed OKC during the offseason, and a fair few did, but the logical evidence that OKC was the best team in the NBA was clear by the end of 2024.

As the winter turned to spring, OKC continued to showcase why everyone now believed the team had supplanted the Celtics as the team most likely to win it all. The odds have shortened steadily since then, and today, they are priced at -750 to win the NBA Championship (one of the shortest prices we have seen in years). Again, it is not guaranteed to happen, but it feels highly logical that it will.