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Western Conference Finals: Warriors Heavy Favorites

The Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors kick off the Western Conference Finals on Monday, and many people consider this series effectively the NBA championship. Well, AccuScore’s computer has a pretty strong stance on who will win this series with the Golden State Warriors winning 70.1% of AccuScore’s simulations.

The Houston Rockets aren’t exactly hopeless, but they’re facing long odds.

To put into perspective the gulf between the Warriors and the Rockets, the latter of whom finished the season with the best record in the NBA, the Warriors have a 39.1% chance of winning the series in either four or five games. As a reminder, the Rockets only have 29.9% chance to win the series in any manner.

In fact, the longer the series goes, the better the chances for Houston to pull off the upset.

AccuScore has spread, totals and side value picks for every game in both conference finals and in the NBA Finals: NBA Playoffs Picks

The Rockets have a 14.2% chance of winning in 7 games versus the Warriors’ 13.5% chance to win if the series goes the distance. Effectively, the Rockets’ best chance to advance to the NBA Finals involves playing the Warriors seven times and banking on the home court advantage to carry them through. That said, the Warriors are most likely to win in 5 games at 26.3% with the next most likely outcome as the Dubs winning in six games at 17.4%.

To open the series, the Rockets won 52.4% of Game 1 simulations, so Houston is not exactly expected to be a pushover. All the games in Houston expect to be close contests with the Warriors afforded opportunities to win games, while the contests in Oakland fall in an entirely different category. Beating the Warriors four times in seven games with Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson all healthy is going to take some doing.

Ultimately, AccuScore calculates that the probability of Houston beating the Warriors four times in a series is about a 30-70 split, with Golden State the clear favorite.

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