Spurs vs. Heat: NBA Finals Rematch
By Rohit Ghosh
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After winning eight of its last 10 games, San Antonio – a roster that’s finally healthy – is once again proving that success in the NBA is all about timing. After beating the Cleveland Cavaliers 122-101 Tuesday, the Spurs (44-16) get set to host the defending champs in a game that should feature a playoff-like atmosphere. The Heat (43-15) are coming off a loss at Houston and can’t afford to lose too many more if they want to compete with Indiana for the No. 1 spot in the East.
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While Miami’s season has been largely dictated by the play of LeBron James, San Antonio’s has been a team effort as usual. Throughout injuries to Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker, Coach Gregg Popovich has masterfully manipulated his rotations to not only finish with a top record, but also make sure his players are healthy come playoff time. The Spurs have been officially ‘healthy’ for two games and the chemistry is getting back to championship form. Against the Cavs on Tuesday, the Spurs finished with a season-high 39 assists on 43 made field-goals.
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AccuScore has the Spurs as solid 60.2 percent favorites to win Thursday night. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 103-101, with the Spurs covering the -2.5 spread in 53.1 percent of simulations. For more projection data on tonight’s game, members, click here
Betting Trends
Miami Heat: 43-15 SU | 27-29-2 ATS
San Antonio Spurs: 44-16 SU| 29-31 ATS
• MIA is 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
• MIA is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
• SA is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
• SA has an Over record of 8-2 in their last 10 games.
Projected Leaders
LeBron James: 25 points (54% FG), 8 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 turnovers
Dwyane Wade: 16 points (47% FG), 5 rebounds, 4 assists
Tony Parker: 16 points (50% FG), 6 assists
Tim Duncan: 14 points (47% FG), 10 rebounds, 2 blocks
What to Watch For
While San Antonio isn’t known for its rebounding prowess, ranking No. 25 in the league, Miami is even worse, ranking 30th in rebounds per game. AccuScore simulations project a fairly even rebounding battle between the two sides, but given the probability of this being a close game, rebounding margin will play a big factor in determining the final outcome. Keep an eye on Chris Bosh to be extra-aggressive on the boards tonight.
Fun Fact: San Antonio is 13-0 when holding opponents under 90 points and 11-0 when opponents shoot below 40 percent from the field.
Heat Regular Season vs former Finals Teams
W-L (Met in)
Mavs 6-0 ('11)
OKC 3-1 ('12)
Spurs 1-0 ('13)
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