Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Spurs vs Mavericks: NBA Thursday Preview
With a spot in the playoffs on the line, the Dallas Mavericks head into Thursday night’s game against the San Antonio Spurs with a win or go home mentality. Following the Memphis Grizzlies Wednesday night win over the Miami Heat, Dallas can’t afford to drop any of its final three games. A win would also end the Mavericks’ eight-game losing streak to the Spurs and potentially keep the Spurs from having home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.
AccuScore has the Spurs as slight 56.2 percent favorites to win Thursday night’s matchup. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 106-103, with San Antonio having a 58.8 percent chance of covering the +2 spread. There is a 60.5 percent chance the total score goes OVER 202.5.
Betting Trends
• The Spurs are 24-14-0 against the spread (ATS) on the road this season.
• The Spurs are 22-16-0 against the over/under on the road this season.
• The Mavs are 17-22-0 ATS at home this season.
• The Mavs are 23-16-0 against the over/under at home this season.
AccuScore has expert picks against the spread and on Over/Unders for this game and every other NBA game on the board tonight...take a look at AccuScore's star-rated NBA Expert Picks for tonight.
Key Stats
• When these two teams last met in March, the Spurs won the home contest 112-106, failing to cover the -6.5 spread. The total combined score went OVER the set total (208.5).
• Over the last decade, the average points scored per game for the home team is 97.8 ppg while the visitor has put up 95.2 ppg. The home team has had an average margin of victory of about 2.6 points.
• In 39 games on the road this season (29-10), the Spurs have an average margin of victory of +6.8 points.
• In 39 games at home this season (25-14), the Mavericks have an average margin of victory of +4.1 points.
Projected Leaders
Tim Duncan: 20 points (46% FG), 13 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal
Kawhi Leonard: 17 points (48% FG), 8 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal
Dirk Nowitzki: 21 points (46% FG), 8 rebounds, 2 assists
Monta Ellis: 18 points (43% FG), 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals
What to Watch For
Thursday night’s matchup comes down to how often the Mavericks can hit the long ball, and if they can force the Spurs to take shots they don’t want. The Spurs rank No. 2 in the league in opponents three-point field goals made, giving up just 6.4 makes on average per game. Dallas is No. 10 in the league in percent of points from three-pointers, getting about 25.2 percent of the total points per game from beyond the arc. Dallas makes close to nine three-pointers per game, averaging 26.5 points per game from the three-point line. AccuScore projects the Mavericks to shoot 7-20 from the three-point line Thursday.
The Mavericks can counter San Antonio’s three-point defense by attacking the basket early and often. Dallas is No. 3 in the NBA in free-throw percentage. Despite the high efficiency, the Mavericks are fifth worst in the league in getting points from the free-throw line.
The Mavericks’ biggest weakness all season has been defending the paint. They rank in the bottom third of the league in opponent points per game in the paint, giving up close to 44 points per game. The Spurs are No. 6 in the league in getting points in the paint (46.4 pts/game). Some of the potential damage in the paint will be offset with Tony Parker sitting the game out due to a back injury. Parker gets a majority of his points in the paint, specifically at the rim where he shoots over 56 percent from the field.
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