Written by Rohit Ghosh
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NBA: Lakers-Celtics & Bulls-Nuggets Preview
AccuScore is providing detailed previews of the nationally televised games in the NBA. For Thursday, we have coverage of the NBA on TNT. The Lakers and Celtics renew their classic rivalry in the first game while the Nuggets take on the Bulls in the nightcap. See detailed previews below.
AccuScore has expert picks for every NBA game against the spread and on totals on the NBA Picks Page.
Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Both of tonight's games are projected to very close, but there is one thing in common: AccuScore forecasts both home teams to come out on top. In the first match-up, the Celtics are the slight 52.9 percent favorites with an average score of 95.3-95.2. Talk about close! While both teams have comparable chances at a big win (10 points or more) or a close win (4 points or less), Boston has a slightly higher probability in each category.
Boston is currently favored by 2.5 points, but has just 46.4 percent chance of covering that number. There is nearly a 60 percent chance the total score stays under 196 points. Both teams, even with injuries, are playing well; the safest bet to take, given the history, might just be on the over/under. The total has gone under in 4 of L.A.'s last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston.
Much of tonight's outcome depends on whether or not Dwight Howard plays. AccuScore has him in the simulations, but with limited minutes and a projection of 11 points and 9 rebounds. Boston doesn't have a crazy quick or athletic guard, and are almost as depleted in the paint as the Lakers are. Tonight's game should come down to two things: how effective Paul Pierce is and the battle between Jeff Green and Earl Clark. Assuming Metta World Peace can somewhat contain Pierce, something I'm fairly confident he can do, the difference in the game will be either Clark's or Green's rebounding. Clark is projected to grab 3+ offensive rebounds tonight compared to less than 1 for Green. Boston has been a poor rebounding team for some time now, and it could be their ticket to a loss tonight. L.A. is projected to outrebound Boston tonight by approximately 6 total rebounds.
Kobe Bryant is projected to lead the way for the Lakers with 25 points, 7 rebounds, and 9 assists. For the Celtics, Paul Pierce is projected to get 20 points, 7 rebounds, and 5 assists.
Boston hasn't had too much time to rest for this game after winning a close one last night in Toronto. The homecourt advantage should help allay any sort of fatigue though, at least for a couple quarters. Not having Gasol is a big handicap, but I think L.A. takes this one tonight by 5. They need it more.
Denver Nuggets vs. Chicago Bulls
In the second game of the doubleheader, the Bulls look to get back on track against the Nuggets. Just like the first game, AccuScore projects a close win for the home team giving the Nuggets a 57.4 percent chance at the win with an average score of 102-100. Denver is 5-0 straight up in its last five games. They are favored by 6.5 points, but the better bet is easily the Bulls and the points. Chicago covers the +6.5 spread in over 62 percent of the simulations. There is a 61.7 percent chance the total goes over 195.5 points. The total has gone over in six of Chicago's last eight games on the road, and in Denver's last five games.
The Bulls are 9-1 after a loss this season. They lost 111-101 against the Indiana Pacers in their previous game, one where they uncharacteristically let Indiana shoot nearly 53 percent from the field. Normally they hold teams to approximately 43 percent shooting. Denver, being at home, should win the game, but I'd be surprised if it was not close until the final buzzer. Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau won't accept another poor defensive performance and will probably do everything in his power to prevent back-to-back losses. Denver is projected to shoot 45 percent from the field tonight.
I can't see the Bulls coming into Denver and taking this one tonight, but definitely expect the game to stay close. I would take the points and Chicago if I were to bet on this game. Keep in mind though, the Nuggets are 29-20 against the spread this season while the Bulls are 20-28. Even then, I'd say Denver wins by 6.
Nate Robinson is projected to lead Chicago in scoring with 18 points. Luol Deng is projected to put up 17 points and grab 8 rebounds. For Denver, Danilo Gallinari is projected to get 16 points and 5 rebounds.
