By Jonathan Lee
July 5, 2012

The first big domino of the NBA offseason fell when the Nets decided to acquire Joe Johnson and not wait for a potential deal for Dwight Howard.  Brooklyn acquired an All-Star shooting guard in Johnson to pair with the recently resigned Deron Williams in the backcourt.  The move was able to happen as Atlanta dumped the $90 million still remaining on Johnson’s contract for a bunch of expiring deals including Jordan Farmar, Johan Petro, Anthony Morrow, and Jordan Williams along with DeShawn Stevenson via sign-and-trade.

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This deal could turn into a massive problem down the line for the Nets given Johnson’s age and contract.  The same can be said of forward Gerald Wallace.  At least for next season however Williams, Johnson, and Wallace should form a formidable punch at the 1, 2, and 3 spots.

The trade improves the Nets by over 3 wins over a full 82-game schedule, but it still doesn’t push them into the playoffs according to the AccuScore computers.  Brooklyn makes the playoffs 26.5 percent of the time.  That represents a large 8.7 percent boost, but more moves will need to be made in order to surround the star backcourt with help particularly in the frontcourt.

In conjunction with the Johnson deal new Atlanta GM Danny Ferry sent underachieving small forward Marvin Williams to Utah in exchange for point guard Devin Harris.  Utah in turn reacquired guard Mo Williams for helping send Lamar Odom back to the Clippers.

These two moves alone prove that Ferry means business in molding Atlanta into a contender.  He traded away two productive players, but both had poor contracts.  Both players also had spent several years in Atlanta and the Hawks had never reached true title contention.  Sending away both Johnson and Williams still didn’t make the Hawks significantly worse on the court either according to simulations.  Atlanta still makes the playoffs 73 percent of the time, and are now in position to be serious players for free agents in 2013 and 2014.

Utah quite frankly surprised according to our computers this past season slipping into the 8th seed.  The Jazz were exposed as non-contenders however getting summarily swept out of the first round by the Thunder.  Adding Mo and Marvin Williams does improve the Jazz on the court, but the baseline projection is probably much lower than most fans might think.  AccuScore views Utah as a lottery team for the upcoming season, and while these trades actually improved the team by more than two wins that still makes them only 14 percent likely to make the playoffs again.

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NBA
Totals Pick

  Over 231

56.5%
Spread Pick

 CLE -5.5

52.0%
64.9%
64.9%
35.0%
35.0%
Side Value
 

Money Line
CLE  64.9%


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NBA

NBA2 Season Futures

Eastern SEASON-TO-DATE FORECAST POSTSEASON
WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN DIV PLAYOFF
ATL
Boston Celtics 61 21 61.7 21.3 100% 100%
New York Knicks 51 31 51.3 31.7 0% 100%
Toronto Raptors 30 52 30.0 52.0 0% 0%
Brooklyn Nets 26 56 26.0 56.0 0% 0%
Philadelphia 76ers 24 58 24.0 58.0 0% 0%
CEN
Cleveland Cavaliers 64 18 64.6 18.4 100% 100%
Indiana Pacers 50 32 50.4 32.6 0% 100%
Milwaukee Bucks 48 34 48.0 34.0 0% 100%
Detroit Pistons 44 38 44.0 38.0 0% 100%
Chicago Bulls 39 43 39.0 43.0 0% 100%
SE
Orlando Magic 41 41 41.0 41.0 100% 100%
Atlanta Hawks 40 42 40.0 42.0 0% 100%
Miami Heat 37 45 37.0 45.0 0% 100%
Charlotte Hornets 19 63 19.0 63.0 0% 0%
Washington Wizards 18 64 18.0 64.0 0% 0%

Western SEASON-TO-DATE FORECAST POSTSEASON
WIN LOSS WIN LOSS WIN DIV PLAYOFF
NW
Oklahoma City Thunder 68 14 68.7 14.3 100% 100%
Denver Nuggets 50 32 50.3 32.7 0% 100%
Minnesota Timberwolves 49 33 49.5 33.5 0% 100%
Portland Trail Blazers 36 46 36.0 46.0 0% 0%
Utah Jazz 17 65 17.0 65.0 0% 0%
PAC
Los Angeles Clippers 50 32 50.0 32.0 0% 100%
Los Angeles Lakers 50 32 50.0 32.0 0% 100%
Golden State Warriors 48 34 48.5 34.5 100% 100%
Sacramento Kings 40 42 40.0 42.0 0% 100%
Phoenix Suns 36 46 36.0 46.0 0% 0%
SW
Houston Rockets 52 30 52.0 30.0 100% 100%
Memphis Grizzlies 48 34 48.0 34.0 0% 100%
Dallas Mavericks 39 43 39.0 43.0 0% 100%
San Antonio Spurs 34 48 34.0 48.0 0% 0%
New Orleans Pelicans 21 61 21.0 61.0 0% 0%

Eastern, ATL

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Eastern, ATL

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Eastern, CEN

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Eastern, CEN

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Eastern, SE

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Eastern, SE

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Western, NW

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Western, NW

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Western, PAC

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Western, PAC

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF

Western, SW

SEASON-TO-DATE    WIN     LOSS   |   FORECAST    WIN     LOSS   

Western, SW

POSTSEASON    WIN DIV     PLAYOFF