Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers: Preview
Having each lost 7 of their last 12 games, both the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat enter Wednesday night’s matchup on a bit of a slump. For Miami, the culprit has been its defense that has uncharacteristically given up more than 100 points to opponents in five of those seven losses. Indiana has struggled offensively as of late, scoring less than 80 points in three straight games. Can Indiana get the win at home to create some space between themselves and Miami in the standings? Or will Miami get the win to force a tie in the loss column?
AccuScore has the Pacers as 69.4 percent favorites to win. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 93-88, with Indiana having 63 percent chance of covering the -2 spread. Miami is currently on a two-game against the spread (ATS) losing streak versus Indiana.
Projected Leaders
LeBron James: 22 points (48% FG), 8 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 TOs
Dwyane Wade: 14 points (42% FG), 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 block
Paul George: 20 points (40% FG), 7 rebounds, 2 steals
David West: 15 points (49% FG), 8 rebounds, 1 block
What to Watch For
Indiana’s biggest advantage in this matchup is in the rebounding advantage. Miami is last in the league (No. 30) with just 36.65 rebounds per game while Indiana is No. 4 in that category. The size of Roy Hibbert and David West are a big part of this advantage, but Miami has been historically successful attacking the paint and getting those guys in early foul trouble. Indiana can control the tempo of the game by dominating the boards, but that’s hard to do when the bigs are in foul trouble.
Miami’s advantage comes from beyond the arc as Indiana averages below seven three-pointers made per game (No. 24). As of this morning, Ray Allen was listed as doubtful for tonight’s game due to flu-like symptoms. With Allen out, Miami will rely more heavily on attacking the paint, where they lead the league in field goal percentage (68.4). Indiana is No. 1 in the league in defending the paint, holding opponents to about 52 percent shooting from that area.
In Indiana’s loss at Chicago on Monday, the team finished with a season-low 11 assists. Indiana is No. 27 in the league in assists per game with an average of 20 per game. With an aggressive perimeter defense like that of Miami, ball movement is critical - especially for a team that is struggling to score.
Betting Trends
• Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
• Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. East teams
• Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games vs. Central division teams
• Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games at home
• Indiana is 2-10-1 ATS in their last 23 games vs. East teams
AccuScore has a 4-star pick against the spread for tonight's game. See Miami Heat v Indiana Pacers pick. Pssst...Use coupon code 20NBA and get 20% off membership. Join Today!
