Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Miami Heat vs Brooklyn Nets: Game 5
After dominating Miami in game 3 with their hot outside shooting, the Brooklyn Nets came up short 102-96 in game 4 as LeBron James led the way with 49 points (16-24 FG). While Brooklyn was unable to cover their -2 spread, it was the third OVER in the series (in 4 games). The difference all series has been Miami’s ability to get the shots they want, whenever they want. It helps to have the best player in the game, but Brooklyn’s inability to protect the paint hasn’t helped either. If the Nets hope to extend this series, they’ll have to get out to an early lead in game 5. Unless Brooklyn both sets and dictates the tempo from tipoff, Miami will punch their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals once again.
AccuScore has the Miami Heat as solid 78.2 percent favorites to win Wednesday night’s game 5 against the Brooklyn Nets. The average score after 10,000 simulations is 101-93, with Miami having nearly a 56 percent chance to covering the -7 spread. There is a 60 percent chance the total combined score goes over 188.5.
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Betting Trends
Miami is 61-29 so far this season (including regular season and playoffs) and 45-44-1 against the spread (ATS). Brooklyn is 49-44 and 47-45-1 ATS.
• The Nets are 5-10-1 ATS in their last 16 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Nets’ last 5 games.
• The Nets are 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 games on the road.
• The Nets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road.
• The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
• The Heat are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of the Heat’s last 5 games.
• The Heat are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games at home.
Projected Leaders
Joe Johnson: 17 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists
Deron Williams: 13 points, 7 assists, 3 rebounds
LeBron James: 30 points, 8 rebounds, 7 assists
Dwyane Wade: 17 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists
What to Watch For
What was most dominating about LeBron James’ performance monday night was that 36 of his 49 points came either at the rim or at the free-throw line. James knows he can get what he wants and Monday night clearly showed that. James did shoot just 5-12 on jump shots, a glimmer of hope for the Brooklyn defense. Keep an eye on whether or not the Nets can force LeBron to stay out of the paint - he was 11-12 by the rim in game 4.
With this potentially being the last game of the season for the Nets, expect Paul Pierce to redeem himself after being torched by James in game 4 and in the whole series in general. Prior to game 4, Pierce “asked” to guard LeBron. James has scored 45 or more points 7 times in the NBA Playoffs in his career, with 3 of those performances coming against Pierce. Pierce might have to accept he’s physically just not able to guard James. He still has the skillset on offense to be a problem for the Heat - AccuScore projects 13 points and 5 rebounds for Pierce.
