By Jonathan Lee
Chris Bosh left Game 1 with a lower abdominal strain, and was scheduled for an MRI Monday. Most guesses have Bosh out for at least the rest of the Pacers series, and possibly up to a month. For now AccuScore projects him to be out, and Miami’s per game win percentage drops by -4.9 percentage points.
|
MIAMI WIN %
|
IN MIA
|
@IND
|
AVG
|
|
w/ Bosh Healthy
|
72.2%
|
47.1%
|
59.7%
|
|
w/o Bosh
|
66.5%
|
43.1%
|
54.8%
|
|
IMPACT
|
-5.7%
|
-4.0%
|
-4.9%
|
Overall the probability of the Heat winning the series drops from 82 percent with Bosh down to 74 percent without him. Erik Spoelstra has said that every option would be explored to replace Bosh which could range from dusting off Eddy Curry or Dexter Pittman to playing LeBron James at power forward regularly. The latter option is probably better for Miami as the roster has more capable players on the wings (Mike Miller, Shane Battier, James Jones) rather than in the post (Udonis Haslem, Ronny Turiaf).
|
MIAMI HEAT
|
VS IND
|
EAST
|
CHAMP
|
|
w/ Bosh Healthy
|
82.3%
|
64.3%
|
40.6%
|
|
w/o Bosh
|
74.1%
|
52.3%
|
28.2%
|
|
IMPACT
|
-8.2%
|
-12.0%
|
-12.4%
|
In the worst case scenario where Bosh missed the rest of the playoffs completely, Miami would be 12 percent less likely to win both the Eastern Conference and the Championship.
