By Rohit Ghosh
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Bulls vs Rockets: Preview
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Mostly due to a lack of weapons, the Chicago Bulls (35-29) hope what some are referring to as their ‘consistently inconsistent’ offense shows up Thursday night against the Houston Rockets (44-20). After defeating the Miami Heat earlier this week 95-88 in an overtime thriller, the Bulls lost embarrassingly to the San Antonio Spurs, falling behind 51-19 in the second quarter. Houston starts a mini road-trip that has them facing the Bulls followed by the Miami Heat. Houston defeated Chicago 109-94 at home in mid-December, covering the -8 spread.
The Rockets being favored by 3 points isn’t really all that surprising. Houston – most of the time – is the better team, but Chicago gets a few points just for the home-court advantage. AccuScore expects the matchup to be a close on, just barely favoring Houston (51.9 %). Chicago has a slightly higher probability at a close win (4 points or less), Houston a much higher probability at a big win (10 points or more). The average score after 10,000 simulations is 95.1 – 93.4.
Projected Leaders
Dwight Howard: 15 points (52% FG), 11 rebounds, 2 blocks
James Harden: 22 points (40% FG), 6 assists, 4 rebounds
Joakim Noah: 13 points (48%), 11 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks
Carlos Boozer: 13 points (47% FG), 8 rebounds
What to Watch For
While the matchup features a Chicago defense that holds its opponents to an average of 92.3 points per game and a Houston offense that’s no. 3 in the league in scoring (106.5 points per game), the game will without a doubt be one of those grind-it-out games. Chicago is coming off a game in which they allowed 38 points to the Spurs in the opening period. A game like that almost guarantees a playoff-like defensive performance from the Bulls the following game.
Nearly 63 percent of AccuScore simulations had the total combined score stay under 195.5.
When these two teams last met, Dwight Howard led the way with 23 points as the Rockets finished the game with 66 points in the paint. It is the highest points in the paint total the Bulls have given up all season. In 17 regular season games against Joakim Noah, Howard averages 19 points (61.5% FG), 13 rebounds and 2 blocks.
Betting Trends
• Houston is 10-4 in its last 14 games on the road
• The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Houston's last 17 games on the road
• Houston is 5-0 ATS (against the spread) in its last 5 games vs Chicago
• Chicago is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
