MLB
Chicago Cubs
0
Baltimore Orioles
0

Accuscore Probability

-0.5
0.5

Over/Under

N/A

Accuscore Probability

 
 
-0.5
under
0.5
over
Money Line
BAL  62.2%
Side Value
BAL  5.6%
37.8%
62.2%
Game Projection
  • Chicago Cubs
    3.5 Points
  • Baltimore Orioles
    4.3 Points
Big Win
  • CHC
    11.1%
  • BAL
    21.2%
Close Win
  • CHC
    21.0%
  • BAL
    31.9%

Game Prediction

MLB: Chicago Cubs vs. Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles are 30-17 at home this season and are solid favorites to beat the Chicago Cubs who are 18-28 on the road this season. The Orioles have a better than 55% chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Orioles starter Corbin Burnes is forecasted to have a better game than Cubs starter Shota Imanaga. Corbin Burnes has a 62% chance of having a Quality Start (QS) while Shota Imanaga has a 50% chance of a QS. If Corbin Burnes has a quality start the Orioles has a 77% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 5.1 and he has a 38% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Orioles win 61%. In Shota Imanaga quality starts the Cubs win 57%. He has a 53% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio and if he does his team wins 57% of simulations. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Baltimore Orioles is Gunnar Henderson who averaged 2.07 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 33% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Orioles have a 75% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Chicago Cubs is Seiya Suzuki who averaged 1.85 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 28% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Cubs have a 55% chance of winning.
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Chicago Cubs

Batting AB R H RBI BB K HR
Nico Hoerner 4.2 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.05
Seiya Suzuki 4.1 0.5 1.1 0.4 0.3 1.6 0.14
Cody Bellinger 4.1 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.2 1.3 0.14
Christopher Morel 3.8 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 1.6 0.14
Patrick Wisdom 3.8 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.4 2.0 0.16
Dansby Swanson 3.8 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.3 1.5 0.12
Ian Happ 3.5 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.4 1.5 0.11
David Bote 3.6 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.2 1.6 0.07
Miguel Amaya 3.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 1.2 0.04

Pitching IP R H ER BB K HR W L
Shota Imanaga 6.1 3.0 6.5 3.0 1.3 8.2 1.10 0.34 0.52
Relievers 1.9 1.3 2.3 1.2 0.9 2.8 0.40 0.04 0.10

Batting

Pitching

Baltimore Orioles

Batting AB R H RBI BB K HR
Gunnar Henderson 4.0 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.4 1.5 0.27
Adley Rutschman 4.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.3 1.2 0.17
Ryan Mountcastle 4.0 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.2 1.4 0.17
Ryan O'Hearn 3.9 0.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.14
Anthony Santander 3.7 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.3 1.1 0.23
Jordan Westburg 3.7 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 1.2 0.15
Colton Cowser 3.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 1.7 0.15
Cedric Mullins 3.5 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 1.1 0.09
Ramon Urias 3.4 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 1.0 0.13

Pitching IP R H ER BB K HR W L
Corbin Burnes 6.6 2.6 6.1 2.5 1.9 9.9 0.76 0.53 0.33
Relievers 1.9 0.9 1.9 0.8 0.8 3.1 0.21 0.09 0.05

Batting

Pitching

Trends

  • Chicago Cubs
  • Baltimore Orioles
  • Chicago Cubs
  • Baltimore Orioles
CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Baltimore Orioles
Chicago Cubs RECORD Baltimore Orioles RECORD UNITS EDGE
Record on the Road 18-28, 39% -879 Record at Home 30-17, 64% 500 Baltimore Orioles
VS Baltimore Orioles 1-0, 100% 126 VS Chicago Cubs 0-1, 0% -100 Chicago Cubs
vs Team .500 or Better 25-32, 44% -652 vs Team .500 or Better 27-19, 59% 301 Baltimore Orioles
Record As Road Underdog 13-22, 37% -697 Record As Home Favorite 25-17, 60% -110 Baltimore Orioles
When Shota Imanaga Starts 12-4, 75% 489 When Corbin Burnes Starts 11-6, 65% 73 Chicago Cubs
PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Baltimore Orioles
Chicago Cubs RECORD Baltimore Orioles RECORD UNITS EDGE
Record on the Road 4-7, 36% -294 Record at Home 8-6, 57% -45 Baltimore Orioles
VS Baltimore Orioles 1-0, 100% 126 VS Chicago Cubs 0-1, 0% -100 Chicago Cubs
vs Team .500 or Better 9-14, 39% -572 vs Team Under .500 7-4, 64% 146 Baltimore Orioles
Record As Road Underdog 4-6, 40% -194 Record As Home Favorite 7-6, 54% -159 Baltimore Orioles
When Shota Imanaga Starts 2-2, 50% -51 When Corbin Burnes Starts 2-2, 50% -54 Chicago Cubs
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
Chicago Cubs RECORD Baltimore Orioles RECORD O-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD 18-26, 41% Over OVER-UNDER AT HOME 23-21, 52% Over UNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS 3-7, 30% Over ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS 7-6, 54% Over UNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON 39-40, 49% Over ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON 38-39, 49% Over OVER
OVER-UNDER IN Shota Imanaga STARTS 6-8, 43% Over OVER-UNDER IN Corbin Burnes STARTS 8-8, 50% Over N/A
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