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2016 NBA Playoffs: San Antonio Spurs projected to win NBA Title
AccuScore has star-rated expert picks: Spread and Totals: ALL NBA Playoffs Expert Picks and odds
AccuScore’s simulation engine simulated every NBA Playoffs series 10,000 times to predict the entire 2016 NBA post season. Surprisingly, the computer picked a couple of upsets in the conference finals, with the Toronto Raptors knocking off the Cleveland Cavaliers, and the San Antonio Spurs beating the defending champion Golden State Warriors. Below are AccuScore’s predictions for every 2016 NBA Playoffs series:
2016 NBA Playoffs - Round 1: Eastern Conference Predictions
Toronto vs Indiana:
Toronto is a 59.7% favorite with its backcourt duo of DeMar DeRozen and Kyle Lowry leading the Raptors. The Raptors have a 26.1% likelihood of finishing the Pacers off in five games, which is the most likely outcome. The Raptors winning in six games is the next most likely outcome, and the sweep is 16.9% likely.
Atlanta vs Boston:
Atlanta is a 67.3% favorite, which seems a bit high. The Hawks’ won 67.3% of their home games in simulations versus Boston winning only 54.5% of its home games at the TD Garden. Atlanta winning in five games is the most likely outcome, and there’s a 30.6% chance this series goes seven games.
Cleveland vs Detroit:
The Cleveland Cavaliers are 71% favorites to make it out of the first round, though the computer is not entirely impressed with the Cavs in the later rounds.
Miami vs Charlotte:
The Charlotte Hornets edged out the Miami Heat by a 56.0% margin over 10,000 simulations. This series has a 63.8% chance of going six or seven games, with Miami most likely to pull the upset in Game Six—this occurred in 21.6% of simulations.
2016 NBA Playoffs - Round 1: Western Conference Predictions
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Golden State vs Houston:
The Warriors hold a healthy 90.7% advantage over James Harden, Dwight Howard and the Houston Rockets. Golden State has a 58.0% chance of winning in five games or fewer. Houston, we have a problem, which is that the Warriors are really good at basketball and set the regular season record with a new record of 73-9.
San Antonio vs Memphis:
At some level, we think the computer is taking Memphis’ injured, D-League roster too lightly. However, the Spurs winning with 98.2% efficiency sounds like Coach Pop level efficiency. The Spurs will win, nd they have a 44.4% chance of sweeping, which is the highest in the first round.
Oklahoma City vs Dallas:
Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant don’t seem happy about being left out of the discussion with the Spurs and the Warriors. They play better when they’re angry, which is not a good sign for the Mavs. OKC won 87.4% of AccuScore’s 10,000 simulations.
Los Angeles vs Portland:
The LA Clippers match up surprisingly well against the Portland Trail Blazers by winning the series with 92% proficiency. That may sound high, but the Clippers have been rather consistent and look solid entering the post season. The computer still rates Blake Griffin highly based on his earlier stats, which is a factor in why the Clippers are heavily favored.
2016 NBA Playoffs – Conference Semifinals
We’ll keep this round short and sweet in the Eastern Conference. Cleveland moves past Atlanta with a 56.8% edge, which only makes Cleveland a favorite by a small margin. Toronto moves past Charlotte with a 71% probability of smashing.
In the West, the Spurs dominate at home and move past the Thunder with 77.7% confidence. The computer projects this series to be more likely to end within five games than to end in six or seven games. The Spurs simply play superior basketball according to the computer’s calculations.
Golden State and the LA Clippers hate one another with a passion. However, the Clippers failing to keep the Warriors’ fans from taking over the home arena combined with the Warriors being a 73-win team results in this series ending with Golden State moving on 61.6% of series.
2016 NBA Playoffs – Conference Finals
This is the round where the computer seemed a bit loopy. The Raptors beat the Cavs with roughly a 55-45 split. That’s not entirely unimaginable, but the fact that the Spurs edged the Warriors by the same margin had us scratching our heads. Apparently, the computer is making a big call. Ok, computer, you’re only this one on your own. Spurs versus Raptors.
2016 NBA Playoffs – Finals
We checked, and regardless of whether it’s the Warriors or the Spurs, the West beats the East. The Spurs come into the NBA Finals as 80% favorites over the Raptors, with San Antonio holding a 27.7% probability of winning in Game 5.
