Will Chicago be still a contender?

It is likely that one of the leading scorers in the NHL, Patrick Kane, will be done for the season. The estimated time of absence is 12 weeks, which would put Kane back in the lineup around the time of the Western Conference Finals – if Chicago ever makes it that far.

Even if Kane is undoubtedly irreplaceable by any one player, the dark cloud has a silver lining. With trade deadline looming on Monday, Chicago can still make some moves to plug the hole left by their star forward. Missing a key player such as Kane would be disastrous for almost any organization, but is it really for Chicago?

With AccuScore simulation engine we can simulate the rest of the regular season, roughly 20 matches remaining per team. Let’s take a look how Chicago’s season would play out from now on.

First we run the simulation with Kane in the lineup:
48 wins – 29 losses – 5 ot-losses = 101 points
And then simulations without Kane, and more remarkably without the potential trades Chicago might yet do:
46 wins – 30 losses – 6 ot-losses = 98 points

As the simulations suggest, even without Patrick Kane the Blackhawks have enough quality to win most of their remaining matches – but that is in the regular season. It remains to be seen what’s the reaction in Windy City come the deadline – there are some big skates to be filled. Veteran defenseman Kimmo Timonen could get some company as a new team member.

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