By Tomi Rantanen
NHL playoffs up to speed
The NHL playoffs are rolling ahead on Wednesday with three games on the agenda. After a long and sometimes tedious regular season the real games are here and 16 of the best teams remain. Not too many surprise inclusions or exclusions, except maybe for the youthful Florida Panthers who took the Atlantic division by storm. But Detroit is in, barely, for the 25th time in the row and the usual suspects are enjoying the golf and speculating on draft lottery.
We are more than ready for the playoff push and with help from our supercomputer, already know what’s going to happen! Oh well, not quite but here come the Accuscore predictions for NHL Playoffs 2016:
Western Conference
QUARTER FINALS
Dallas Stars (1.) – Minnesota Wild (8.)
Dallas will progress with 64.7% probability. The most probable result of series is 4-1 (18.8%)
St. Louis Blues (2.) – Chicago Blackhawks (3.)
Chicago will progress with 59.8% probability. The most likely result of the series is 4-2 (18.5%)
Anaheim Ducks (4.) – Nashville Predators (7.)
Anaheim will progress with 52.7% probability. The most likely result of the series is 4-3 (18.7%)
Los Angeles Kings (5.) – San Jose Sharks (6.)
Sharks will progress with 57.2% probability. The most likely result of the series is 2-4 (18.7%)
The western conference playoffs include some of the fiercest rivalries in the NHL already on the first playoff-round. St. Louis Blues is facing it’s nemesis for several years as the Blackhawks come to town, while Sharks and Kings battle over the kingdom of California. The biggest surprise in the simulations is arguably the Sharks beating Kings in six games. San Jose is not exactly known as a playoff-team, whereas Kings is exactly that. However, this year is as good as any for the Sharks to banish their demons. Not everyone should be so lucky, as the Blues are still playing the blues after series loss to Blackhawks – again. Wild’s close escapade into post-season will not keep the cold out for long as Stars run them over. The closest fought battle ensues between the Ducks and Predators, but the defensive duel will eventually turn into Ducks favor with home advantage.
CONFERENCE SEMI-FINALS
Dallas Stars (1.) – Chicago Blackhawks (3.)
Dallas will progress to Conference Finals with 54% probability. The most likely result of the series is 4-3 (16.9%)
Anaheim Ducks (4.) – San Jose Sharks (6.)
Ducks will progress to Conference Finals with 53.2% probability. The most likely result of the series is 4-3 (19.2%)
According to the simulations the playoffs second round is extremely close and practically anyone’s game. It’s hardly a surprise as the western conference is remarkably even at the top. The small margins matter: whose powerplay is more clinical, who is able to keep their cool, which goalkeeper will make the gamesaver? The semi-final series dip neatly towards the teams with the home advantage. Ducks will take the reins in California by the smallest of margins, while Star’s firepower is too much to handle for the reigning champions. But it’s all very, very close.
CONFERENCE FINAL
Dallas Stars (1.) – Anaheim Ducks (4.)
Stars will go to the Stanley Cup Finals with 66.7% probability. The most likely result of the series is 4-1 (19.6%)
Rather surprisingly after all even semi-finals, the conference final is deemed to go to Stars in five. They dominate from start to finish and give Ducks no chance what so ever. It’s the battle of Ducks defense and Stars offense and according to simulations, the offense will prevail this time. At this point Ducks wearing playing style might be showing and Stars might have lighter feet. If Stars progress to the Stanley Cup finals, it will be their first since year 2000.
Eastern Conference:
QUARTERFINALS
Washington Capitals (1.) – Philadelphia Flyers (8.)
Capitals will progress with 66.9% probability. The most likely result of the series is 4-1 (19.8%)
Pittsburgh Penguins (2.) – New York Rangers (4.)
Penguins will progress with 68.3% probability. The most likely result of the series is 4-1 (20.2%)
Florida Panthers (3.) – New York Islanders (5.)
Panthers will progress with 60.5% probability. The most likely result of the series is 4-2 (18%)
Tampa Bay Lightning (6.) – Detroit Red Wings (8.)
Lightning will progress with 64% probability. The most likely result of the series is 4-1 (18.7%)
As expected the pairings in the east are more uneven than in the west – at least according to the simulations. Washington ruled the regular season with an iron fist and are likely to demolish Flyers, who have succumbed to mediocrity after a spell of excellence on their way to the wild card spot. Penguins have flown high since the coaching change and are likely to progress through, even if they’re facing a team which has ended their season twice in a row, as New York Rangers and Henrik Lundqvist look to continue the tradition. Having reached their 25th consecutive post season, Detroit can’t cope with the last years finalists Lightning, who should get some much needed reinforcement from their sickbay. Youthful and hungry Panthers (and Jaromir Jagr) appear to continue their magical season, leaving Brooklyn’s finest far behind.
CONFERENCE SEMI-FINALS
Washington Capitals (1.) – Pittsburgh Penguins (2.)
Capitals will progress to Conference Finals with 59.7% probability. The most likely result of the series is 4-3 (19.3%)
Florida Panthers (3.) – Tampa Bay Lightning (6.)
Lightning will progress to Conference Finals with 62.1% probability. The most likely result of the series is 2-4 (20.3%)
The second round in the east will witness interesting rivalries, with Capitals and Ovechkin taking on Penguins and Crosby, while couple of thousand miles south Panthers and Lightning commence in a truf war over Florida. The reborn Capitals will beat the reborn Penguins in an extremely close series, with Barry Trotz getting one over Mike Sullivan. Panthers’ strong push will finally halt in the hands of Lightning, who will progress to their second consecutive conference final.
CONFERENCE FINALS
Washington Capitals (1.) – Tampa Bay Lightning (6.)
Capitals goes to Stanley Cup Finals with 66.8% probability. The most likely result of the series is 4-1 (19.6%)
Washington Capitals are big favorites to progress to Stanley Cup finals and Tampa Bay is only a small bump on the road. According to the simulations Capitals will take the series rather easily, but the games are remarkably close calls. Capitals has the ability to turn these one goal games to their favor along the way, while Lightning is faltering under heavy pressure and better roster depth of the Capitals.
STANLEY CUP FINAL
Washington Capitals (1.) – Dallas Stars (1.)
Capitals will win the Stanley Cup with 59.6% probability. The most likely result of the series is 4-3 (18.5%)
It is not surprising that the simulation will pit two of the best teams in the regular season against each other in the finals. Capitals dominated the regular season and looked unstoppable at times, with Braden Holtby a strong candidate for Vezina, Alex Ovechkin banging in another 50 goals and Barry Trotz finally kicking some discipline into the talented but flamboyant roster. Stars on the other hand showed remarkable attacking prowess and scored at will with four lines and the defense as well. Winning the western conference is no small feat and time and time again Stars showed that they are real contenders by shutting down the top teams. According to the simulations the finals are likely to be heavy scoring and offensive battles with plenty of physical play. Each and every game appears extremely close and the series will only end after game seven. The first Stanley Cup of the franchise will go to Washington, with the smallest of margins.
