NHL on Tuesday – Accuscore Expert Analyst Pick
Carolina Hurricanes @ Toronto Maple Leafs
The early Tuesday faceoff in the Eastern conference pits together two young and promising teams, Toronto Maple Leafs and Carolina Hurricanes. Toronto already impressed last year with a playoff-run and Carolina has been in retool phase for a while with a plethora of young talent available.
Both teams are looking at a playoff-spot in all-so-even NHL Eastern Conference. Toronto is currently 4th in the Conference and second in their Atlantic division with 41 points in 34 games. Carolina is chasing the playoff-spot, being 10th in the East and only 7th in the Metropolitan division – but with only 32 games played with 35 points to show. The season is still young, but it looks as close as ever with nearly every team within a shouting distance to each other.
Accuscore is 10-5 picking the moneyline winner and 6-4 in picking the correct over/under in all Toronto Maple Leafs home games this season.
While Toronto has managed to garner enough points to rise to top four of the conference, they’ve not played all that well all season – especially at home. Their home record is 5-5-0-5 (Wins, OT-wins, OT-losses, losses), which gives them 20 points in 15 games and puts them 9th in the East at home. Their goal difference is +2 at home, while on the road it’s +10. However, the overtime record at home is impressive with no losses in games being decided after the 60 minutes of play.
Carolina, on the other hand, have struggled at home but been better on the road. Their season has gone up and down, with the young team still finding their bearings. At times especially the offense has shown some magic. Hurricanes post a record of 5-2-4-7 on the road and they’re 4th in the East, if only road games are considered with 18 points in 18 games.
Tonight Toronto return home from a three-game road trip, which yielded no points and only three goals scored altogether. The Maple Leafs are struggling without their talisman center Auston Matthews, who’s been sidelined due to an injury. At home, their goal scoring has slumped already before, with only five regular time goals scored in the past five home games.
The Hurricanes have won three straight, albeit two of them were decided after the regular time. Both of those ot-wins came on the road, with Carolina profiting in Buffalo and Las Vegas. In the past five meeting between these teams the visiting team has taken the win and two points.
Accuscore simulations indicate the Maple Leafs are favorites at home, but only slightly. The oddsmakers have much more faith in the hosts, setting the odds at around 61 % for the home team. In Accuscore simulations, Toronto wins only with 51.8 % probability.
The Maple Leafs outscore Hurricanes with 2.9 goals against 2.7 goals. The margin being small, there’s a great chance for an upset by the visitors and it’s highly likely they’re able to at least snatch a point. The most likely scorer is, with Auston Matthews missing, Toronto’s Nazem Kadri, with 0.47 goals scored per simulation. Patrick Marleau and Hurricanes’ Jeff Skinner follow with 0.38 goals scored. Most likely player to gain at least one point is Jordan Staal of the visiting team, with 42 % probability. Toronto’s Nazem Kadri and William Nylander as well as Hurricanes’ Sebastian Aho and Jeff Skinner mark a point with ~40 % likelihood.
- Hurricanes moneyline win presents value here, with odds of +108 | 2.08 or better playable
- In a close game there’s a high chance of overtime (27%), so the draw with odds of +270 | 3.70 or better should be considered
- Goals and points:
- Staal to score a point – odds of +139 | 2.39 or better
- Kadri, Aho, Skinner, Nylander to score a point – odds of +156 | 2.56