Western Conference Showdown: St. Louis Blues @ San Jose Sharks
The Western Conference showdown on Thursday night features two playoff hopefuls St. Louis Blues and San Jose Sharks. The hosts are currently 7th in the west, while St.Louis are hanging back at 10th.
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The visiting Blues have been riddled by injuries and seem to have lost all faith in being a serious contenders. Letting Paul Stastny go at the deadline sent a wrong kind of message, even if the team was only one point removed from the playoffs at the time. The battle for the final spots in the west is fierce and the wild card spots are still up for grabs. With 75 points in 66 games Blues are still only one win behind Colorado Avalanche and Los Angeles Kings fighting for the last wild card.
The Sharks went all the way to the Stanley Cup finals two season ago, but were out of gas last season. This time around they look more competitive, though dropping easy points here and there. They’ve collected 79 points in 66 games and are 3rd in the Pacific division one win ahead of chasing Kings.
Accuscore’s NHL Side Value record in San Jose Sharks home games is 19-13 with a profit of +245 for the season and NHL Side Value record in St. Louis Blues road games is a magnificent 21-11 with a hefty profit of +836. (100 unit stake on each bet)
The Sharks have been in good form lately, after returning from their four game road trip finishing with only three points – only win from St. Louis. Their current home stand of three games include regular time victories over Chicago, 7-2 and Edmonton, 5-2. They did lose in inter-conference matchup against Columbus, so it’s likely they’ll bounce back against conference rivals Blues.
Blues on the other hand have been simply awful as of late. They’ve only won two in last 10 games and collected six points. Blues have lost five in a row on the road, including being mauled 8-3 by Wild and 4-0 by Nashville.
Accuscore’s simulations
In Accuscore’s simulations the home team San Jose Sharks is 65.1% favorite to take two points. St. Louis Blues then only win with 34.9% probability. San Jose took the spoils in St. Louis just two weeks ago and are more than likely to do so on home ice as well.
The Sharks take more shots on goal in the simulations and also score more than their opponents. In the simulations, the hosts manage to put the puck past Jake Allen 3.1 times on average, while visiting Blues only score 2.3 goals on Martin Jones. The total is 5.4 and goes under the line of 5.5 with 57.9% probability.
Neither of the teams have players in top-40 of the NHL scoring race – San Jose doesn’t have a player in top-50. Still the home team is such a clear favorite, their players are the most likely to score points. Leading the line for the hosts is defenseman Brent Burns, with 58.8% probability of scoring at least one point, followed by Joe Pavelski with 56.9%, Logan Couture with 55.9% and new boy Evander Kane with 48.4%. The most probable point scorers for the visitors are Vladimir Tarasenko with 49.1% and Brayden Schenn with 47.3%. In simulations, it’s Evander Kane who is the most likely to score a goal with 33.2%, followed closely by Logan Couture, 33% and Tarasenko with 30.3%.
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Analyst Picks
San Jose has a lot more fight in them at the moment than the Blues. While Blues still have a quality team, that final push is missing due to injuries and sending away Paul Stastny. The team responded accordingly and are sliding down the standings. Sharks smell blood and will take the points in the pond.
- San Jose Sharks ML win should be played with odds of -186 | 1.54
- 3-way bet for home win is risky, but worth a shot with odds of -118 | 1.85
- The goal total stays under 5.5 in 57.9% of the simulations, so take the under with -137 | 1.73
- Goals & Points:
- To score at least 1 goal: Evander Kane, Logan Couture odds of +203 | 3.03
- To score at least 1 goal: Vladimir Tarasenko: odds of +233 | 3.33
- To score at least 1 point: Burns, Pavelski, Couture : odds of -122 | 1.82
Not a member? This is the best time to join! Sign up now and you'll get ALL of AccuScore's 2018 NHL regular season picks and the playoffs predictions... and much more! JOIN ACCUSCORE TODAY!*
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