NHL on Friday Night features Winnipeg Jets hosting Detroit Red Wings in an inter-conference showdown. The hosts are currently standing strong at third in the west and second in their division. The visiting Red Wings are 12th in the east and fifth in their division.
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The young and ambitious Jets team have taken many by surprise. They’ve played way better than expected and look like a serious contender already, especially after adding much needed quality in the center in Paul Stastny. Jets’ offense has been top notch all season and they rank 2nd in the western conference in goals scored with 3.38 on average. While the defense has looked suspect at times, statistically they’ve done well there too, ranking 4th in the west defensively, allowing 2.7 goals on average. At home, Jets’ numbers are even better: they’ve gone 23-2-7 with 48 points in 32 games, averaging 3.88 goals per game and allowing 2.53.
Accuscore is 20-12 in predicting Winnipeg Jets home game side value with a profit of +292. In predicting over/under in Winnipeg Jets home games, Accuscore record is 18-7 with a profit of +1030. (100 unit stake)
Detroit Red Wings are in the middle of something of a rebuild or at least a retool. They’re not exactly tanking, but hanging by the skin of their teeth in the playoffs race – especially now that the last wild card spot seems to be up for grabs with Blue Jackets’ decline. It’s still a long shot for the Wings to make it to the playoffs. They only have 62 points in 63 games, with a record of 26-10-27. They’re 3rd last in goals scored in the east, with 2.63, while defensively they’ve done well being 7th in goals allowed in the east with 2.94. Red Wings have been in similar form at home and on the road, posting an away record of 13-2-14 and 28 points in 29 games with 2.72 goals scored and 2.97 allowed on average.
The Jets have lost two of their past seven games, both at home against conference rivals Predators and Kings. They’ve been on a bit of a decline over the last 10 home games, only collecting 11 points with five wins and straight up losses. Detroit’s away form has been better as of late, with 13 points in 10 games. They’ve won four straight up and lost three, with 2-1 record overtime. Red Wings have, however, only won three of their last eight overall.
Accuscore’s simulations
In Accuscore’s simulations Winnipeg Jets are overwhelming favorites, despite their recent stumbles. The Jets win 68.7% of the simulations, leaving Red Wings with only 31.3%. Despite inter-conference matchup usually having a higher probability for a draw, this time it’s less than likely as Jets are too strong a favorite.
The score is likely to go high in a free-flowing game. Home team is scoring 3.6 goals on average and the visitors manage to put the puck past Connor Hellebuyck 2.5 times on average. Total of 6.1 goals indicates the score will go over 5.5 with 56.1% probability and over 6.5 with 44.4% likelihood.
Rather interestingly Detroit Red Wings top scorer Dylan Larkin is only 66th overall in the NHL with 47 points. In simulations, Detroit’s scoring is divided with wide group of players, none of which have more than 22.5% probability to score a point. Henrik Zetterberg is the most likely to mark up at least one point with 44.8% likelihood.
The Jets are a completely different story. Heavy scoring team has three players scoring over 50 points, with both Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele scoring more than a point per game. Patrik Laine has scored 31 goals and Nikolaj Ehlers 25 goals, 7th and 30th in the NHL. In simulations, Scheifele, Wheeler and Laine are the most likely to add at least a point with more than 60% probability, while Laine is the most likely goal scorer with 42.8% probability.
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Analyst Picks
The Jets are likely to plow through Red Wings in their home ice after a disappointing loss to Predators last game. The offensive prowess is too much for Red Wings to handle and it’s likely that we see quite a bit of goals from the home side.
- Winnipeg Jets ML win should be played with odds of -219 | 1.46
- 3-way bet for home win is worth a shot with odds of -142 | 1.70
- The goal total goes over 5.5 in 56.1% of the simulations, so take the over with -127 | 1.79
- The goal total goes over 6.5 in 44.4% of the simulations, so take the over with +126 | 2.26
- Home team scores over 3.5 goals in 50.8% of the simulations, so take the over with -103 | 1.97
- Scores a goal: Patrik Laine, odds limit of +134 | 2.34
- Scores a point: Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler, Patrik Laine, odds limit of -150 | 1.67
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