NHL on Tuesday: Washington Capitals @ Anaheim Ducks
The last game late on Tuesday night features two quite evenly matched teams from both conferences, when Washington Capitals and Anaheim Ducks face-off in California.
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The visiting Capitals have taken the lead in the Metropolitan division with 81 points in 65 games. They’ve two games in hand compared to chasing Penguins with 80 points. In the eastern conference, the Capitals are fourth behind Tampa Bay, Boston and Toronto. Capitals have recorded 28 wins and 21 losses in regulations, while the overtime/shootout record stands at 9-7. On the road they’ve been less successful, placing sixth in the east with 33 points in 31 games and a record of 10-4-5-12. Their goal difference in road games is not remarkably good, with 2.9 goals scored and 3.58 goals allowed. Safe to say defensively they’re a lot better at home, where they’ve only allowed 2.41 goals per game.
The Ducks are in the middle of the playoff-battle in the all-even western conference. Currently 3rd in Pacific division, they’ve gathered 78 points in 66 games, with 27 wins and 21 losses in regulation. They’ve struggled in overtime/shootout games, with a record of 6-12. Sharks are one win behind San Jose Sharks in their division and one point ahead of Los Angeles Kings. It’s all wide open in the west, with Colorado Avalanche and Calgary Flames pushing for playoffs and St. Louis Blues in the mix as well.
The Ducks are a better home team than on the road, as usual. At home, they have 18 wins and 14 losses, five of which in overtime or shootout. They’ve scored 3.0 goals on average at home, while allowing 2.72.
Accuscore’s NHL Side Value record in Anaheim Ducks home games is 19-13 with a profit of +442 for the season and NHL Side Value record in Washington Capitals road games is magnificent 22-9 with a hefty profit of +1304. (100 unit stake on each bet)
The Ducks have been in good form lately, winning seven of their ten home games. They beat both Chicago and Columbus in regulation during their current home stand and lost to Edmonton in shootout. Capitals won their tow last games, but at home. On the road, they’ve lost two in a row against Columbus and Florida, and six out of their last ten.
Accuscore’s simulations
In Accuscore’s simulations Anaheim Ducks is 60.6% favorite to take two points. The Capitals win with 39.4% probability. With an inter-conference game comes an added probability of overtime, but since Ducks have a horrendous record from those games, the home team is likely to push for a win in regulation.
The hosts manage to score on average 3.4 goals in simulations, while the Capitals score 2.8. The goaltender battle goes for the home team, with visitors Branden Holtby somewhat struggling with a saving percentage of only 89.3.
The most likely player to score, however is the Capitals’ NHL leading goal scorer Alex Ovechkin. Ovie scores in simulations with 44.7% probability, leaving others far behind. The next most likely scorer is Ducks’ Richard Rakell with 30%. Ovechkin is also the most likely player to score a point, with 61.5% probability. Ryan Getzlaf of Ducks follows suit with 57.5% probability and Ryan Kesler supports with 50.1%. For the Capitals, Nicklas Bäckström is the 2nd most likely to mark up a point with 54.7%.
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Analyst Picks
Even with Ducks bad record in overtime/shootouts and this being an inter-conference game, we have to go with the home team. Capitals are not as good on the road and Ducks start to be in a desperation mode – which they always thrive in.
- Anaheim Ducks ML win should be played with odds of -153 | 1.66
- 3-way bet for home win is risky, but worth a shot with odds of -104 | 1.97
- The goal total goes over 5.5 in 56.8% of the simulations, so take the over with -132 | 1.77
- Goals & Points:
- Ovechkin to score a goal: odds of +124 | 2.24
- Rakell to scorea goal: odds of +233 | 3.33
- Getzlaf, Kesler, Bäckström to score a point: odds of +100 | 2.00
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