Toronto Maple Leafs – Tampa Bay Lightning

Returning from a short break for New Year the NHL offers us a top notch matchup from the Eastern Conference: the NHL leading Tampa Bay Lightning head to Toronto to visit their divisional rivals Maple Leafs.

Tampa has been just as good as expected this season, collecting 58 points in 38 games, with a staggering 23 wins in regulation. They’ve done well in extra time & shootouts as well, with 5-2 record. With Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos both in scoring top-5, Tampa has banged in NHL-leading 144 goals – that’s 3.79 goals for per game. Their defense has been equally impressive, allowing only 93 goals (2.45/game) and bested only by Western Conference teams Kings and Sharks.

Toronto entered the season with high expectations but didn’t start too well. They’ve improved, however and are currently 5th in the East and stand firm 3rd in their division. Panthers are nine points behind, albeit two games in hand. Toronto has accumulated 48 points in 40 games. They’ve impressed offensively, with 3.38 goals per game for, but their defense is closer to average with 2.95 goals against.

Accuscore’s trends in picking Tampa Bay Lightning on the road is 12-6 with a profit of +462, while picking Toronto Maple Leafs at home is 12-4 with a profit of +379.

Accuscore’s simulations

Accuscore simulations indicate the game going for Tampa Bay all the way. The visitors win 61.6 % of the simulations, leaving the hosts with 38.4 %. With the odds only slightly favoring the NHL leaders, there’s nice side value for the visitors.

Tampa Bay outscores the Leafs in the simulations with 3.8 goals vs 3.0. The most likely to score a point are – of course – Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos, former with 57 % and latter 53 % likelihood to put up at least one point. However, the most likely scorer represents the home team: Toronto’s Auston Matthews is scoring 0.57 goals on average. He is also the most likely to score a point for Toronto, with 47 % likelihood.

Accuscore’s Side Value picks are 23-13 in past 7 days with a hefty profit of +753. In Eastern Conference games Side Value picks are 12-6 with a profit of +427.

Analyst Picks:

  • Tampa Bay ML win presents value of over 7% compared to odds
    • Odds limit is -160 | 1.62 (61.6 %)
  • Tampa wins most of their games in regulation and odds of +135 | 2.35 present value of a couple of percent
  • The game is likely to involve a lot of scoring
    • Over 5.5 goals 65.4 % - odds of -189 | 1.53 or better
    • Over 6.0 goals 54.8 % - odds of -121 | 1.83 or better
  • Goals and points:
  • Kucherov to score a point – odds of -133 | 1.76
  • Stamkos to score a point – odds of -111 |1.89
  • Matthews to score a goal – odds of +109 | 2.09
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