MLB
Texas Rangers
0
Houston Astros
0

Accuscore Probability

-0.5
0.5

Over/Under

8.5

Accuscore Probability

0
19
8
under
9
over
Money Line
HOU  51.4%
Side Value
TEX  1.3%
48.6%
51.4%
Game Projection
  • Texas Rangers
    5.3 Points
  • Houston Astros
    5.2 Points
Big Win
  • TEX
    21.9%
  • HOU
    19.9%
Close Win
  • TEX
    20.6%
  • HOU
    23.9%

Game Prediction

MLB: Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
The Houston Astros are 40-44 at home this season and the Texas Rangers are 45-41 on the road this season. This is a close match-up with both teams having a 45 to 55 percent chance of winning based on 10,000 game simulations generated one play at a time by the AccuScore Simulation Supercomputer. Both starters have a relatively low chance of having a quality start. Framber Valdez has a 42% chance of a QS and Nathan Eovaldi a 41% chance. If Framber Valdez has a quality start the Astros has a 75% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 3.2 and he has a 20% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Astros win 51%. If Nathan Eovaldi has a quality start the Rangers has a 74% chance of winning. His simulated strikeout to walk ratio is 2.6 and he has a 20% chance of having a 5 to 1 K/BB ratio. When he has a 5/1 ratio the Rangers win 55%. In simulations we tracked the batter for each team that was most productive based his average hits, walks and RBI per simulation. The most productive batter for the Houston Astros is Yordan Alvarez who averaged 2.68 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 47% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Astros have a 64% chance of winning. The most productive batter for the Texas Rangers is Corey Seager who averaged 2.57 hits+walks+RBI. He has a 45% chance of having a big game with 3+ Hits, Walks, RBI and if he has a big game the Rangers have a 62% chance of winning.
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Texas Rangers

Batting AB R H RBI BB K HR
Marcus Semien 4.4 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.5 1.1 0.18
Corey Seager 4.2 0.7 1.3 0.8 0.5 1.2 0.28
Mitch Garver 4.0 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.6 1.5 0.26
Adolis Garcia 4.1 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.4 1.8 0.25
Nathaniel Lowe 3.9 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.5 1.5 0.10
Josh Jung 4.1 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 1.8 0.19
Jonah Heim 3.9 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.13
Leody Taveras 3.8 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.2 1.3 0.08
Evan Carter 3.1 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.8 1.6 0.22

Pitching IP R H ER BB K HR W L
Nathan Eovaldi 5.8 3.4 6.4 3.3 2.5 6.6 1.10 0.41 0.45
Relievers 2.3 1.7 3.0 1.7 1.2 3.0 0.58 0.08 0.06

Batting

Pitching

Houston Astros

Batting AB R H RBI BB K HR
Jose Altuve 4.1 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.21
Alex Bregman 3.9 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.17
Yordan Alvarez 3.8 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.6 1.2 0.33
Kyle Tucker 3.8 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.19
Jose Abreu 3.9 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.3 1.2 0.15
Michael Brantley 3.9 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.20
Chas McCormick 3.6 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.4 1.4 0.21
Jeremy Pena 3.6 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.3 1.1 0.09
Martin Maldonado 3.5 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 1.7 0.13

Pitching IP R H ER BB K HR W L
Framber Valdez 6.1 3.5 6.5 3.4 2.8 8.9 1.15 0.43 0.42
Relievers 2.4 1.6 2.7 1.6 1.3 3.9 0.54 0.08 0.07

Batting

Pitching

Trends

  • Texas Rangers
  • Houston Astros
  • Texas Rangers
  • Houston Astros
CURRENT SEASON: We advise relying on these trends after the first 6 to 8 weeks of the season. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers RECORD Houston Astros RECORD UNITS EDGE
Record on the Road 45-41, 52% 244 Record at Home 40-44, 48% -1963 Texas Rangers
VS Houston Astros 5-9, 36% -221 VS Texas Rangers 9-5, 64% 378 Houston Astros
vs Team .500 or Better 48-45, 52% 250 vs Team .500 or Better 45-45, 50% -420 Texas Rangers
Record As Road Underdog 23-23, 50% 516 Record As Home Favorite 37-42, 47% -2057 Texas Rangers
When Nathan Eovaldi Starts 19-9, 68% 595 When Framber Valdez Starts 20-16, 56% -262 Texas Rangers
PAST 30 DAYS: We advise incorporating these trends along with the current Season after the first 6 to 8 weeks. UNITS EDGE FAVORS: Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers RECORD Houston Astros RECORD UNITS EDGE
Record on the Road 8-6, 57% 233 Record at Home 2-7, 22% -547 Texas Rangers
VS Houston Astros 1-0, 100% 120 VS Texas Rangers 0-1, 0% -100 Texas Rangers
vs Team .500 or Better 4-0, 100% 412 vs Team .500 or Better 8-8, 50% -137 Texas Rangers
Record As Road Underdog 6-5, 55% 218 Record As Home Favorite 2-7, 22% -547 Texas Rangers
When Nathan Eovaldi Starts 4-1, 80% 244 When Framber Valdez Starts 2-3, 40% -179 Texas Rangers
OVER-UNDER TRENDS
Texas Rangers RECORD Houston Astros RECORD O-U EDGE
OVER-UNDER ON ROAD 38-45, 46% Over OVER-UNDER AT HOME 46-37, 55% Over OVER
ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS 4-9, 31% Over ROAD OVER-UNDER PAST 30 DAYS 6-3, 67% Over UNDER
ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON 38-40, 49% Over ROAD OVER-UNDER LAST SEASON 35-51, 41% Over OVER
OVER-UNDER IN Nathan Eovaldi STARTS 14-13, 52% Over OVER-UNDER IN Framber Valdez STARTS 18-18, 50% Over N/A
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