Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Baltimore Ravens: Super Bowl Preview
It’s that time of year again. We will all get together this Sunday with friends and family to watch the newest and most entertaining commercials for essentially the entire day. Don’t forget, the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens will toss the ball around as well in between the commercial action. Are you ready?
AccuScore simulations project this game to be incredibly close. After 10,000 simulations, both teams end with an average of 22 points and 1.4 turnovers. While San Francisco is the betting favorite (-3.5), Baltimore is the slight 51.4 percent favorite based on the simulations. The Ravens have a 61.2 percent chance of covering +3.5. There is a 59 percent chance the total score stays under 47 points. The total has gone under in four of Baltimore’s last five games, and in four of their last six games against San Francisco. The Niners are 2-4 against the spread in their last six games against Baltimore.
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To really break things down from Baltimore’s point of view, there are a few match-ups to focus on: quarterback Joe Flacco vs. SF’s defense, Baltimore’s defense vs. quarterback Colin Kaepernick, and the Baltimore D vs. receiver Michael Crabtree.
Joe Flacco vs. San Francisco
After a subpar regular season, Flacco has been remarkable in the playoffs, leading all quarterbacks in touchdowns, yardage, and QB rating. Best of all, he has zero interceptions. He’s set to face a Niner defense that has allowed the fewest points (15.7) and second-fewest yards (301.3) on a per-game basis since Vic Fangio took over as defensive coordinator in 2011. Was Flacco possibly right in proclaiming himself as the best QB in the league?
I won’t take it quite that far, but he has been playing quite well. Not only does his postseason TD-to-INT ratio impress (8:0), but the advanced stats also tell a similar story. His total QBR is up to 77.5 in the playoffs, good for third best; most telling though is his QBR in the past never went over 41.9 and was even as low as 17.6.
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After watching Atlanta’s Matt Ryan connect on some big plays against San Francisco (Niners allowed 396 passing yards to ATL), expect something similar from Flacco. Deep routes have continued to be an issue for the San Francisco defense in the playoffs. In the regular season, the 49ers allowed just 36.3 percent of passes more than 15 yards to be completed; in the postseason, that percentage is up to 66.7. In the regular season, they picked off six such passes and allowed just two TDs; in the playoffs so far, they’ve allowed three TDs against just one interception.
The key for Flacco will be to try and stay patient. He has been this impressive not because he tries to throw it deep any chance he gets, but rather because he waits for one-on-one match-ups and exploits them. As a result, he hasn’t thrown an interception since Dec. 16 against Denver.
Wide receiver Anquan Boldin was huge in Baltimore’s win over New England producing 60 yards and finding the end zone twice. He doesn’t have the same speed as he once did nor the ability to get as much separation, but he continues to find a way to take advantage of one-on-one situations. In three playoff games this season, he has caught 15 passes for 276 yards and 3 TDs. Wide receiver Torrey Smith will have to challenge San Francisco’s defense as well, attacking a secondary that has proven itself to be vulnerable.
The numbers indicate that the Niners do not blitz much sending five or more pass rushers just 6.9 percent of the time in the last two games. Given what we’ve seen so far, we should expect a relatively safe pocket for Flacco. Baltimore’s offensive line has allowed just four sacks in three playoff games. How often Aldon Smith wins his match-up with left tackle Bryant McKinnie will be very telling. If Smith gets the upper hand in the pass rush battle, the ball will go to Ray Rice whom San Francisco should be ready to handle with the likes of Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman. Early success on the ground will be an indicator to how well Flacco’s play-action will work as the game progresses.
Joe Flacco is projected to throw for 267 yards with a touchdown and a QB rating of 87.5. Ray Rice is projected to get about 61 yards on 17 carries. He’s also projected to make 3 to 4 catches for another 32 yards. Receivers Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin are projected for approximately 70 yards each.
Baltimore’s Defense vs. Colin Kaepernick
While there are dozens of match-ups we can say will decide this game, none will be as important as 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick vs. Baltimore’s defense. Ed Reed and Ray Lewis have been successful their entire careers not just because they are athletic or possess some sort of super-human strength, but mostly because they have outsmarted the QBs they’ve faced. Their experience and knowledge of the game has led them to correctly predict what quarterbacks will do. Can they have the same type of success against Kaepernick?
Kaepernick is a unique player among his NFL peers. His arm is bigger, stronger and more precise than any QB who runs like him, and he’s much more mobile than any QB with an arm like his. He has completed 136 of 218 passes for 1,814 yards and 10 TDs (3 INTs). Taking away all the numbers, his demeanor during the comeback victory in the NFC Championship Game was more than enough to instill confidence in the 49ers faithful.
Baltimore has to – and I mean HAS to – contain tight end Vernon Davis right from kickoff. We know receiver Michael Crabtree is the primary threat in the passing game, but the chemistry that Kaepernick and Davis have established might give Baltimore nightmares. The Ravens linebackers are not known to pass cover well, a bad sign since Davis caught five passes for 106 yards and a TD against Atlanta. He could regress a bit and go back with more blocking responsibilities, but given how much yardage he picks up after the catch, you know Davis is going to make an impact this weekend. Davis is projected for four catches for 53 yards.
Before getting into the Crabtree match-up, let’s first look at why Kaepernick is such a nightmare for oppositions. When the Ravens have all the routes covered and nothing downfield is open, that’s surprisingly when Kaepernick is the deadliest. Baltimore’s pass rush isn’t anything to be proud of either recording zero sacks against Tom Brady and the Patriots.
What stood out in the 49ers game against the Falcons was how little Kaepernick ran. He only rushed twice for 21 yards as offensive coordinator Greg Roman changed things up a bit knowing Atlanta had prepared for the threat of a running Kaepernick. The game was a testament to not only the confidence the coaching staff has in their quarterback, but also to how versatile and mature Kaepernick already is. Stopping San Francisco’s pistol offense is a much different monster than containing Manning or Brady, potentially even more difficult.
Baltimore has to keep Kaepernick between the tackles, and in front of their defense; they can’t hope to run with him so it will be a matter of keeping him in front and forcing him to throw into their coverage. The Baltimore defense is projected to tally 2 sacks, and has a high probability of forcing either a fumble or interception. In fact, the simulation data practically guarantees one or the other happening. Unfortunately for Baltimore, San Francisco is projected to have better defensive stats in all categories.
Baltimore’s Defense vs. Michael Crabtree
In the last month, the Ravens have faced a combination of top wide receivers including A.J. Green, Demaryius Thomas, Reggie Wayne, and Wes Welker. While they were able to contain Green and Thomas, both Wayne and Welker topped 100 receiving yards against Baltimore. The Ravens know they can’t let San Francisco’s Michael Crabtree get that kind of production this Sunday.
First and foremost, Baltimore has to get Crabtree to the ground the moment he catches a pass. He is fourth in the NFL in yards after the catch (543), and averages 6.4 yards after the catch (12th best in the NFL). He’s a big, strong guy who breaks tackles.
Baltimore will look for a team effort to slow Crabtree down. The Ravens don’t match up well on individual receivers and will need everyone from cornerbacks Cary Williams to Corey Graham to Chykie Brown to do their part. Green Bay got into trouble doubling Crabtree and letting Kaepernick run; I expect Baltimore to lay back, force Kaepernick throw into coverage, and try to force a mistake. In three games, the Ravens picked off Andrew Luck, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady a total of five times. Keep an eye out for Williams to spend most of his time on Crabtree; he had two interceptions on Brady and Luck.
Crabtree is projected 5 receptions for 69 yards. Against Atlanta he was targeted seven times, and caught six balls for 57 yards. He did have that one critical fumble near the goal line.
Game Prediction
All signs point to a SF victory, but I’m going to take Baltimore by 3. 24-21.
