Written by Rohit Ghosh
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Seahawks vs Falcons: Monday Night Football - Analyst Pick
Week 11 of the NFL wraps up Monday night in Seattle as the Seahawks host the Atlanta Falcons in a matchup that has a direct impact on the NFC playoff picture. The Falcons sit seventh in the NFC right now, behind the Seahawks, so this game could have a larger meaning should a tiebreaker come into play.
Vegas Odds
There has been very little movement on the total since it opened at 45, but the spread dropped from -3 to -1.5 in most books.
Betting Line: Seattle Seahawks -1.5/-2
Total: 45.5
At the time of publication, about 54 percent of the public were taking the points on the road and taking Atlanta.
62 percent of the wagers on the total have been on the OVER.
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Betting Trends
The total has gone OVER in four of the Falcons' last five games when playing on the road vs the Seahawks.
The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road.
The Seahawks have covered eight of their last 11 on MNF.
What to Watch For
This is the second straight year the Seattle secondary has had to battle major injuries, but Seattle does benefit from the fact that they last played on a Thursday (22-16 win over Arizona). All-pro cornerback Richard Sherman is done for the season with a ruptured achilles, but the defense -- given the extra rest -- projects to still be a difference maker.
Seattle is projected to force one turnover Monday night, with there being an even chance of the Falcons either throwing an INT or fumbling the ball
Last season these two sides split their meetings, with Falcons QB Matt Ryan throwing for three TDs and 300+ yards in each game.
Ryan is projected to finish with 281 passing yards and 2 TDs. His TD-to-INT ratio in sims is about 3:1.
Atlanta will be without RB Devonta Freeman due to concussion protocol, so it'll be up to Tevin Coleman to make up for the lost production. He's more than serviceable against most teams, but it'll be a much tougher task against a Seattle defense.
Coleman has a good chance of seeing the end-zone, averaging 0.5 TDs per sim to go along with 63 yards on 14 carries. Terron Ward is projected to chip in with 27 yards on 8 carries.
Julio Jones just hasn't been his expected self this season, recording only 1 TD so far this season.
Jones is projected to finish with 71 yards on 7 receptions, but averages just 0.3 TDs per sim.
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FREE Analyst's Pick
Seahawks covering, and the OVER.
Atlanta's only road cover this year has been against Detroit -- which doesn't provide a whole lot of confidence. Seattle has the extra rest and gets a couple points at home -- that's good enough for us.
The total has gone OVER in six of the Falcons' last seven games against the Seahawks.
