by Aaron Fischman
Follow @aaronhartf on Twitter

2013 WildCard – Seattle at Washington

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Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Redskins: for the Playoffs

The hottest teams in the NFC must play each other in the Wild Card round. Naturally, one of these teams will continue its momentum and advance to the Divisional Round, while the other will be forced to take an early vacation.

It was a wild season for both the Redskins and Seahawks. Each team was led by a stellar rookie quarterback (Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson) and ranked in the top three in rushing yards per game (Washington 1st, Seattle 3rd).

After losing to the Panthers on November 4, the Redskins fell to 3-6 and found themselves in a dire situation. Fortunately for Mike Shanahan’s squad, the team took full advantage of its Week 10 bye and has not lost since. The Redskins won each of their final seven regular-season games to get into the playoffs. Most importantly, those seven wins included five against NFC East opponents including two victories over the Cowboys to seal the divisional crown.

Much like the Redskins, the Seahawks were nowhere close to an elite team through the first half of the season. Seattle won half of its first eight contests, but earned the reputation (and rightly so) of only being able to win at home. Through eight games, the Seahawks were 4-4, including a perfect 3-0 at home with wins over the Cowboys, Packers and Patriots, but also a 1-4 road record. Seattle finished the season winning seven of its final eight games, just barely failing to catch the 49ers for the NFC West title. As a result, the Seahawks must begin the postseason on the road where they went 3-5 this season.

Despite the Seahawks’ road struggles and the Redskins’ seven-game winning streak, Seattle is the only road team projected by AccuScore to advance past the Wild Card round. In more than 10,000 simulations, the Seahawks won 52.7 percent of the time by an average score of 25.1 to 23.9.

Although Washington allows the third-most passing yards in the NFL (281.9 per game), its opportunistic pass defense has intercepted 21 passes, second-most in the NFL. Fortunately for Seattle, Wilson has been very careful with the ball throwing just two interceptions over the last eight games. Over that same stretch, the rookie threw for 16 touchdowns.

Neither Wilson nor Griffin throws that often relative to the current pass-happy NFL environment. Both are extremely mobile (especially RGIII), and have talented running backs at their disposal. Marshawn Lynch is projected to rush for nearly 90 yards on Sunday. This season, Lynch ran for a career-best 1,590 yards on 5.0 yards per carry.

Griffin’s backfield buddy, Alfred Morris, doesn’t garner near the attention his rookie teammate does, but the sixth-round pick from Florida Atlantic has gashed opponents to the tune of 1,613 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. The 5-foot-9, 218-pound workhorse carried the ball 335 times for an average of 4.8 yards per rush. Morris is projected to rush for 92.9 yards in this game. The rookie has been red-hot over his last six games, rushing for an average of 124.0 yards per contest.


Washington Redskins’ RB Alred Morris just kickin’ it and sittin’ on the hood of his car

My prediction

Seattle is the more complete team with the better overall defense, but Washington will likely win this game and here’s why: the Seahawks’ offense doesn’t throw often enough to fully take advantage of Washington’s weak secondary. Washington rarely turns the ball over (even less than Seattle), and Morris is running like a beast.

Seattle is also not as effective on the road. While it’s true that Seattle has allowed an average of 12.0 points during their current five-game winning streak, the Seahawks’ defense faced weak offenses such as the Bears, Cardinals and Bills. Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore and the Dolphins’ Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas ran exceedingly well against Seattle. So will Morris. In this close game between two momentum-fueled teams, Washington’s slightly superior run game will ultimately give them the 27-21 win.