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NFL Week 5 Preview and Analysis

Every Tuesday, AccuScore takes a look ahead at the NFL schedule and makes predictions on every game. After 4 weeks, the referees are back and the NFL picture is starting to come into focus. Our computer is beginning to warm up, too, and we’ve got a limited time special. Sign up now using the coupon code nflrefs (case sensitive) and get an annual ALL-Sports membership for 25% off! Sign Up Now!

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS
The Cardinals are slight 50.4% favorites. Both defenses are expected to pressure the QB. Both Kolb and Bradford are getting sacked more than 4 times per simulation. If the Rams sack Kolb more than the Cardinals sack Bradford then St. Louis is the 64% favorite. The defenses are also doing well against the run holding the opposition to 3.5 ypc. If St. Louis can average at least 4.0 ypc then the Rams are a 57% favorite, but if they are held under 4.0 tehn the Rams only have a 43% chance.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ WASHINGTON RAMS
The Falcons are 55% favorites thanks to another big Matt Ryan performance. Ryan is averaging nearly 300 passing yards, over 2 TDs and just 0.7 INTs vs the Redskins defense. Ryan was sacked 7 times last week but he is only getting sacked 1.6 times per sim. There is a 23% chance that Washington sacks Ryan at least 3 times and if they do the Redskins have a 58% chance of winning. RG III is averaging 265 passing yards and 68 rushing yards. If he has 250+ passing yards and 50+ rushing yards the Redskins have a 51% chance of winning.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Packers are 76% favorites. Aaron Rodgers is posting big numbers completing over 70% of his passes for 275 yards and nearly 3 TD passes per sim. Andrew Luck is posted for a strong 250 yards and 1.4 TDs. Rodgers is only averaging 0.5 INTs vs 1.5 for Luck. There is just a 12.5% chance that Luck throws fewer INTs than Rodgers and if he does the Colts actually get the 51% edge. If the Colts defense cannot pressure Rodgers and he is sacked no more than twice while throwing no INTs then the Packers are heavy 87% favorites.

To get AccuScore's award winning expert picks against the Spead, on Over/Unders, and on the money line rated on a trends-based start system, visit the NFL Expert Picks page

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants are heavy 77% favorites. There is only a 31% chance that Brandon Weeden throws more TD passes than INTs but if he does the Browns chances jump to 40%. If Weeden can also complete over 60% of his passes then Cleveland becomes the 53% favorite. Dropped passes have destroyed the Browns this year. The Browns need Trent Richardson to have a big game. In the simulations where the Browns win he averages 86 rushing yards and a TD but when they lose Richardson only averages 50 yards on 3.3 ypc.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Despite Chris Johnson finally having a big game in Week 4 he is only projected for 2.5 ypc vs the Vikings defense that is allowing just 3.3 ypc. The Vikings are the heavy 71% favorite because of their run defense and a forecasted huge game from Adrian Peterson. Peterson is averaging over 100 rushing yards per sim and 1 rushing TD. If the Titans hold Peterson under 80 yards and without a rushing TD while Chris Johnson averages at least 4.5 ypc then Tennessee is the 53% favorite.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Baltimore is winning nearly 70% of simluations. Joe Flacco is completing under 60% of his passes in simulations but he is passing for big chunks of yardage averaging 265 yards and 2 TD passes. If the Chiefs can stop big plays from Flacco to Torrey Smith (hold him to under 30 recyd), force at least 2 Ravens turnovers and Jamaal Charles cranks out 5+ ypc then the Chiefs are 59% favorites. But if the Ravens get the edge in turnover margin then Baltimore is the 75% favorite.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS
Cincinnati is the 62% favorite and they have dominated non-playoff teams since the start of 2011. The Dolphins defense is holding Andy Dalton to just 1 passing TD but Dalton is doing a good job limiting turnovers with just a 56% chance of throwing an INT. If Dalton throws at least 1 INT and Ryan Tannehill throws no more than 1 INT the Dolphins are the 59$ favorite. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is projected for 76 rushing yards. When he has 75+ yards the Bengals win 78% of the time, but if held under 75 the game is a virtual coin flip with both teams winning 50%.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Rashard Mendenhall is slated to come back this week and the Steelers are getting a boost with a 66% chance of winning. Mendenhall is averaging 4.5 ypc and LeSean McCoy is averaging just 3.7 ypc. If McCoy rushes for more than 70 yards on at least 4.5 ypc then the Eagles are 51% favorites. Michael Vick did not turn the ball over vs the Giants. If Vick has no INTs and Ben Roethlisberger has at least 1 INT then the Eagles are the 54% favorite. But if Vick throws more INTs than Roethlisberger then Pittsburgh is the heavy 83% favorite.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS
Cam Newton is averaging 225 passing yards nad 56 rushing yards per simulation and Carolina is the 59% favorite. This is a passing league but the team with greater success running the ball will likely win. In the 34% of simulations where Seattle runs for more yards the Seahawks win 79% of the time, but when Carolina gets the edge running the ball the Panthers win 79% of the time. Russell Wilson is averaging more INTs than TD passes. If he has more TD passes than INTs the Seahawks have a 60% chance of winning.

CHICAGO BEARS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The Jaguars offense is only averaging 13 points per sim vs the strong Bears defense. Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging a decent 82 rushing yards, but he is only rushing for a TD in 30% of simulations. The Bears are 71% favorites, but if MJD rushes for at least 1 TD the Jags improve their chances to 48%. If the Jags also get a passing TD from Blaine Gabbert then Jacksonville is the 59% favorite. Unfortunately for Jacksonville this only occurs in 13% of simulations.

DENVER BRONCOS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The Patriots are 70% home favorites despite Peyton Manning's 288 yards and 2 TD passes. Manning is averaging 1 INT per sim while Tom Brady is only averaging 0.5 INTs vs 2.3 TD passes. If Manning has no INTs and Tom Brady throws at least once then Denver is the 52% favorite, but if Manning has 1 or more INTs the Broncos only have a 23% chance. The passing numbers for both teams are virtually the same but the Patriots actually have a +40 yard edge running the ball which gives them the forecasted 1 TD advantage.

BUFFALO BILLS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The 49ers are 73% favorites. Alex Smith has a 3 to 1 TD to INT ratio (1.8 TDs vs 0.6 INTs per sim) while Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging as many INTs (1.5) as TDs. If Fitzpatrick has more TDs than INTs the Bills see their chances improve to 44%. If he has 2 or more TDs an 0 INTs then the Bills have the 58% edge, but there is only an 11% chance of this scenario. More likely the 49ers take care of the ball with no more than 1 Alex Smith INT and at least 125 team rushing yards. If this happens the 49ers are 88% favorites.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The Saints are 57% favorites despite allowing 28 points per simulation to the Chargers. The Saints offense is the key to this game with Drew Brees passing for over 300 yards and no more than 1 INT. If the Chargers can intercept Brees two or more times than San Diego is the 61% favorite. If Brees throws no more than 1 pick then the Saints are the 65% favorite. Philip Rivers is projected for 270 passing yards vs 313 for Brees. If Rivers passes for more yards than Brees and the Chargers have at least 80 rushing yards then San Diego is the 53% favorite.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ NEW YORK JETS
The Jets are winning just 27% of simulations. The Texans are absolutely dominating the Jets run defense which is 31st in the league allowing 4.9 ypc. Arian Foster is averaging 111 yards on 23 carries. There is a 35% chance the Texans run for over 180 team yards and if they do Houston is a whopping 92% favorite. There is a 33% chance that the Jets hold Houston under 125 rushing yards and if they can then the Jets actually have the 59% edge. Mark Sanchez is only completing 50% of his passes for under 1 TD pass per sim. If he completes over 60% of his passes with at least 2 TDs the Jets have a 64% chance of winning. If he completes under 50% the Jets have just a 23% chance.