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2016 NFL Season Futures - Value Picks
The start of the NFL season is full of previews, predictions and all kinds of comments from experts and Joe Smiths. We have listed the best value season total bets after we simulated a full season for every NFL team (Season forecasts for every team are visible on our NFL Picks page, if you just scroll down past the Week 1 Game picks).
Based on AccuScore’s supercomputer there seems to be great parity in the league, which is what makes the NFL so exciting. Based on probabilities, there won’t be any 15 wins teams or one-win teams, so there is no Warriors in the NFL. Vegas oddsmakers tend to agree, as they very rarely set a season totals' line at 11 wins. For 2016, the highest season totals line is 10.5 wins.
So, taking a look at the computer's simulations and taking a look at the Vegas lines, AccuScore has picked out three value picks are...
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1. Tennessee OVER 5.5 wins
Last season‘s three-win season was one more win than 2014, but generally, the 2015 season was just an awful year for Tennessee. A rookie quarterback and the fired head coach during the season don't usually results in a winning season.
This time, things should be more stabilized. Mike Mularkey continues as a head coach, Marcus Mariota has one season of NFL football under his belt and a running back position is boosted by the addition of DeMarco Murray.
Accuscore predicts that Tennessee will climb out of the the bottom place of AFC South and will take seven wins that put them comfortably over Vegas line 5.5 wins.
2. Washington over 7.5 wins
Washington surprised many experts and intelligent machines a year ago by taking 9 wins and winning the NFC East. There haven't been too many changes in Washington, so this season projects for similar results. Tony Romo’s injury will also benefit the Redskins, as Dallas will visit Washington in the second week of the season.
AccuScore predicts that Washington will repeat a nine win season and will take NFC East again, so the pick is OVER.
3. Indianapolis under 9.5
The Colt’s season in 2015 took a big hit due to Andrew Luck’s injuries. Even though they had a chance to clinch playoffs spot in the last game of the season, Indianapolis missed out. During the offseason, Luck got his paycheck and is now the highest paid player of NFL. More importantly, he's a heck of a quarterback.
Based on Accuscore’s season forecast, though, Indianapolis will jump back to the top of the AFC South. However, teams that have been not so great during last seasons - Tennessee and Jacksonville - have improved quite a bit. This impacts Indianapolis’ win totals, which face a tough 9.5-win line. Indy doesn't have much of a margin for error, and AccuScore predicts that Indianapolis will go finish 8-8 in a close division race.
