NFL OVERRATED AND UNDERRATED TEAMS

Everyone knows how bad the Buffalo Bills defense has been this year despite their off-season spending. They allow 32.4 points per game (2nd worst in the league). The league average is 23.1 points allowed. As bad as 32.4 sounds it actually doesn’t reflect just how bad the defense has been.

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Buffalo has played the Jets, Chiefs, Browns, Patriots, 49ers, Cardinals and Titans this season. We took a look at how many points these 7 teams scored against their other opponents (excluding their points scored vs the Bills). The Bills allowed these teams to score 12.2 points more than they scored against the rest of their opponents. So while their 32.4 points is 9.3 points worse than the League Avg, their +12.2 allowed by their Opponents is even worst. The horribly bad Bills defense is actually overrated based on points allowed alone.

On the flip side, the 49ers are #2 in the league at 14.3 points allowed per game (-8.8 better than the league avg of 23.1). The 49ers allowed -11 points less than their opponents scored against the rest of the league. So the highly rated 49ers defense is still significantly underrated by this metric. Using a somewhat arbitrary differential of +/- 2.0 points we identify three underrated defenses (49ers, Chiefs, and Broncos) and the overrated Bills defense.

Even though there are teams that are not given an Overrated or Underrated designation, there are a few notable teams that are slightly over/underrated worth mentioning. The Cincinnati Bengals were a Top 10 defense in 2011 based on points allowed and now they are in the bottom 3rd of the league. As disappointing as they have been they are actually even worse than the raw numbers indicate (+5.3 for opponents). As a playoff team from last year they have a much tougher schedule in 2012 and it looks like this team does not have what it takes to make a playoff run this season.

Heading into Week 8 here are how the 32 NFL teams rank in Points Allowed:

*One note about the Chiefs, we show them as underrated but just because their +5.3 is not as bad as their +7.4 over the league average would indicate. Whenever you allow +5.3 more than your opponents typically average it’s never good so they should not be considered a truly underrated defense.





We did the same type of analysis for Points Scored. The New York Giants score 29.3 points per game (an impressive +6.2 above league avg), but the opposing teams they have played only allowed 21.1 per game to the rest of the league giving the Giants a +8.2 vs Opp Avg. The Giants offense has been great and are still underrated.

The Packers got off to a slow start offensively but that is due to the quality defenses they faced. The Packers are averaging ‘just’ 26.3 points per game but this is a whopping +8.1 above what their opponents have allowed to the rest of the league. Green Bay is well on its way to being the top scoring offense again this season.

Robert Griffin III and Peyton Manning have made big splashes on their new teams and both Washington and Denver are on this list as underrated. While both score well above the league average, they have been even better than you might have realized. The Falcons are the only undefeated team in the league and while their offense is good scoring +5.4 points above the league average, it has shown signs of stalling (ex. Oakland) and they have only scored +2.6 more than their opponents have allowed to the rest of the league. Atlanta’s offense has been good, but not great.

Dallas has frustrated its fan base with its inconsistent offense that is scoring just 18.8 points per game, but they have played teams that have allowed just 19.6 points per game so their offense, while not good, has not been as bad as you might think.

Many expect the Steelers to start surging after a big win over the Bengals in Week 7 but their offense is overrated. The Steelers are averaging a respectable 23.3 points per game, but given the defensive weakness of their opponents they ‘should be’ averaging 26+. Same can be said about the San Diego Chargers. While Denver is notably underrated the Chargers’ 24.7 points per game is not a good number. It is 3.6 less than what Denver’s opponents have allowed to the rest of the league. San Diego does not look like a team ready to make a playoff run.

Here how teams rank in Points Scored: