AccuScore Week 4 Pick'em Analysis

Every Tuesday, AccuScore puts together early analysis for every game in the upcoming week. For week 4 of the 2012 NFL referee lockout season, the marquee matchups are Giants vs Eagles and Cowboys vs Bears. For expert picks for each of these game against the spread, over/unders, or on the moneyline, go to NFL Picks.

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS
In the past the Ravens had a bad tendency to play down to their level of competition, but from a purely statistical simulation perspective the Ravens are heavy 86% home favorites. Joe Flacco is projected for 250 yards, 2 TDs while Ray Rice is averaging 5.0 ypc and has a 55% chance of scoring at least 1 rushing TD. When Rice has 75+ rushing yards and 1+ TDs the Ravens win a whopping 96% of simulations. If Trent Richardson can out-rush Ray Rice and Joe Flacco throws two or more interceptions then Cleveland becomes the 57% favorite.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ BUFFALO BILLS
Fred Jackson may be ready to play this week and CJ Spiller has an outside shot at playing. In simulations where Jackson is 70% and Spiller is out the Patriots are 66% favorites. Tom Brady moved the ball relatively easily vs the Ravens and is projected for 290 yards and is averaging over 2 TD passes per sim. If Buffalo's 'new' defense can pressure Brady, force at least 1 INT while allowing no more than 1 TD pass then Buffalo is the 55% favorite. If the Bills cannot pressure Brady and have 2 sacks or less then New England is the heavy 72% favorite.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Chargers are 59% favorites and the key is turnovers. Philip Rivers is throwing 0.7 interceptions per simulated Chargers win, but he averages 1.5 interceptions in simulation losses. Jamal Charles exploded vs the Saints. The Chargers are allowing just 67 rushing yards per game this year. If Charles has at leat 70 rushing yards on 4.5+ ypc then Kansas City is the 55% favorite. If the Chargers stop Charles' explosive runs and limits him to under 4.5 ypc then San Diego is the 66% favorite.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ DETROIT LIONS
Detroit's defense is allowing 31 points per game and the Vikings are a surprising 2-1 with a defense allowing under 20 points per game. The Lions are 70% favorites because the defense is holding the Vikings to just 21 points per simulation. In simulations where the Vikings win they average 32 points with Adrian Peterson averaging 107 yards and 1.2 rushing TDs. When the Vikings lose Peterson is averaging just 71 yards and 0.6 rushing TDs. Matthew Stafford has struggled with INTs early this year. If he has 2 or more INTs the Lions chances drop to 49%, but if he has no more than 1 INT then Detroit is the 74% favorite.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS
Seattle is the 54% road favorite. Sam Bradford was sacked 6 times by Chicago and 12 times on the year. There is a 40% chance that Seattle sacks Bradford at least 4 times and if they do the Seahawks are 64% favorites winning by 5 points. If the Rams allow no more than 2 sacks then Bradford only averages 0.7 INTs and the Rams win 54% of these simulations. The Rams defense has 5 interceptions this season. If the Rams defense gets 2 or more interceptions then St. Louis is a heavy 69% favorite winning by 6 points per sim.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ NEW YORK JETS
The 49ers are the slightest of favorites winning 50.2% of simulations. Alex Smith's stretch of passes without an INT ended last week vs Minnesota. Even without Darrelle Revis, the Jets are intercepting Smith nearly 1 time per simulation. If the Jets intercept Smith at leat once then the Jets are 59% favorites, but if the Jets do not intercept Smith then San Francisco is the 61% favorite. The Jets offense is averaging just 3.3 ypc. Against the stout 49ers run defense Shonn Greene is averaging just 3.1 ypc and Bilal Powell just 2.5 ypc. If the Jets RBs each averaging at least 4 ypc then NY has a 68% chance of winning. If they are held under 3.5 ypc then SF has the 56% edge.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
The Falcons are 75% favorites with Matt Ryan averaging 280 yards, 2.2 TDs and just 0.7 INTs per sim. The Panthers defense only has 2 INTs this season. If they can intercept Matt Ryan at least once and Cam Newton throws no more than 1 INT then Carolina improves their chances from 25 to 47%. If the Panthers can also average 4.5 ypc then Carolina is the 56% favorite. However, if the Panthers running game is shut down again and they have under 80 rushing yards then Carolina only has a 6.6% chance of winning.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ HOUSTON TEXANS
The Texans are heavy 82% favorites. Arian Foster is averaging 137 yards per simulation which is by far the highest simulation average of the year for any RB. It is also more than 3 times as many yards as Chris Johnson is averaging. There is only a 12% chance that Johnson has more rushing yards than Arian Foster but if he does the Titans have the 63% edge. If Jake Locker has at least 1 passing TD with no more than 1 INT and Johnson has 75 or more rushing yards then Tennessee is the 55% favorite, but if Foster has 100+ rushing yards then Houston is the 90% favorite.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS
Arizona is 3-0 and are 58% favorites vs the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are two missed FGs away from being 2-1 and are only losing by 3 points per simulation. Ryan Tannehill is completing just 47% of his passes and is averaging 0.6 TD passes. If he completes 55% or more of his passes and has at least 1 passing TD then Miami actually is the 65% favorite. If Tannehill completes under 50% of his passes then Miami only has a 35% chance. Reggie Bush has a chance of playing and the Dolphins are averaging just 3.5 ypc in sims. If the Dolphins average over 4.0 ypc then Miami is the 52.5% favorite. If the Cardinals hold them under 4.0 ypc then Arizona is the 63% favorite.

CINCINNATI BENGALS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Maurice Jones-Drew is averaging nearly 100 rushing yards but the Bengals are still 60% favorites. There is a 36% chance that MJD has at least 80 rushing yards and 1 or more rushing TDs and if he does the Jags are 60% favorites. But if he is held under 80 total rushing yards the Jags only have a 24% chance of winning. Andy Dalton has thrown 1 INT in each game this year. He is averaging 0.9 per sim. If he has 1 or more INTs then the Bengals are the slight 49% underdog, but if he has no more than 1 INT then Cincinnati is the 64% favorite.

OAKLAND RAIDERS @ DENVER BRONCOS
Darren McFadden is averaging over 115 rushing and receiving yards on 20 touches (16 carries, 4 receptions), but the Broncos are the 65% home favorite. If McFadden has 80+ rushing yards and 40 or more receiving yards the Raiders are 51% favorites. Peyton Manning is expected to have a good game against the Raiders who have allowed 6 passing TDs and have 0 interceptions. If Manning has another multiple INT game then Oakland is the 52% favorite, but if he has 2+ TDs and no more than 1 INT then Denver is the heavy 78% favorite.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Saints have just a 20% chance of avoiding a dreadful 0-4 start. The Packers are averaging 35 points per simulation which is only 1 point more than what the Saints are allowing per game. There is only a 35% chance the Saints hold the Packers under 30 points but if they do the Saints have a 47% chance. If New Orleans holds Green Bay under 30 and Drew Brees has no more than 1 INT then the Saints are 54% favorites. However, there is a 50% chance that Drew Brees has two or more INTs and if he does then the Saints only have a 13% chance of winning.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Both pass defenses have struggled. They are 31st and 32nd in the league in pass yards allowed. There is a 15% chance that both Robert Griffin and Josh Freeman have at least 250 passing yards each and if they do Tampa Bay is the slight 50% favorite. The Redskins are actually the slight 51% favorite overall because Robert Griffin is having a big game scrambling. If Griffin has 40 or more rushing yards the Redskins are 65% favorites. But if the Bucs keep RGIII in the pocket and he has under 25 rushing yards then Washington only has a 28% chance of winning.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Michael Vick is averaging nearly 2 turnovers (1.3 INTs and 0.6 lost fumbles) himself and as a result the Giants are the 54% favorite. If Vick and the Eagles have no more than 1 turnover then Philadelphia is the 53% favorite. Eli Manning is averaging nearly 2 pass TDs vs 1 INT. In simulations where the Giants win Eli Manning averages 2.1 TDs and 0.8 INTs but in simulations where the Giants lose Eli averages 1.5 TDs and 1.5 INTs.

CHICAGO BEARS @ DALLAS COWBOYS
Dallas has only scored 23 points in their past 2 games and Chicago gave up just 6 points vs the Rams. That said, the Cowboys are favored by 63% with 24 points per simulation. In simulations where the Cowboys lose they only score 17.5 points per sim and Tony Romo passes nearly as many INTs (1.3) as TD passes (1.4). Obviously, Jay Cutler needs to avoid sacks and INTs. If Cutler has no more than 1 INT and Dallas does not sack him more than twice then Chicago is a 60% favorite, but when Cutler has 1 or more INTs and is sacked 4 or more times then Chicago only has a 21% chance.