NFL Week 9: Preview & Analysis

Every week, AccuScore’s computer simulates every game in the NFL 10,000 times to make predictions. After 8 weeks, AccuScore’s computer is back with analysis on every Week 9 game. The Super Computer also has Betting Picks against the spread and on totals for each of these games; to see these, visit the NFL Expert Picks page

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KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Both teams are struggling but some team has to win and the Chargers are the 71% favorites. In simulations where they win the Chiefs QB has 1.4 TDs and just 0.7 INTs, but in simulated Chiefs losses the team averages 1.4 INTs. Jamaal Charles averages 5.0 ypc and 70 rushing yards in simulated wins vs just 48 yards in losses. If Philip Rivers has 0 interceptions the Chiefs are 86% favorites, but there is a 33% chance he has 2 or more INTs and if he does the Chargers only have a 50/50 shot.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Washington is the 56% favorite with both Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton passing for 220+ yards and leading their team in rushing. In the 36% of simulations where Newton has more rushing yards than RGIII the Panthers go on to win 70% of the time, but when RGIII gets the edge rushing the ball Washington is the 71% favorite. Carolina's defense needs to step up to upset Washington. If the Panthers hold Griffin to under 60% completion percentage and intercept him at least once then Carolina is the 61% favorite. If Cam Newton throws no more than 1 INT and rushes for 50+ yards the Panthers are the 69% favorite.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Packers are heavy 83% favorite with Aaron Rodgers averaging over 300 passing yards, 2.3 TDs and under 1 INT. There is only an 8% chance that Rodgers has more INTs than TDs but if this happens the Cardinals pull even with a 50% chance of winning. Green Bay has not been able to run the wall but another ineffective game from Alex Green should not hurt GB too much. In simulated wins, Green only averages 2.1 ypc vs 1.5 in simulations where GB loses. The Cardinals need to dominate running the ball to win. They average 130 rushing yards on 5.0 ypc when they win, but only 80 on 4.2 ypc overall.

DETROIT LIONS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Matthew Stafford is projected for another strong game with a simulation average of 274 yards, 2.1 TDs and just 0.8 INTs. The Lions are 67% road favorites as a result. Maurice Jones-Drew is out again, but Rashad Jennings is averaging 84 yards per sim. There is a 30% chance he has 100+ rushing yards and if he does the Jaguars are 57% favorites, but if he has under 100 rushing yards the Jags only have a 22% chance. The Jaguars defense is 25th against the run, 23rd vs the pass, and 27th in points allowed. If the Lions have 275+ passing yards and 80+ rushing yards the Lions are projected to score 33 points and have an 89% chance of winning.

CHICAGO BEARS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

The Bears barely beat Carolina, but are 70% favorites vs the Titans. The Bears are expected to dominate in the running game vs the Titans who allow nearly 140 rushing yards per sim. There is a 25% chance that Matt Forte has over 75 rushing yards and Michael Bush 35+ and if they do the Bears are 93% favorites. But if Tennessee can hold the Bears under 100 rushing yards (a 33% chance) then Tennessee is the 55% favorite. Jay Cutler is only throwing an INT in 38% of simulations. If he does the Bears' chances drop from 70 to 60%. There is a 10% chance he has multiple INTs and if he does the Bears are 45% underdogs.

DENVER BRONCOS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

Peyton Manning is on a tear and is projected for 260+ yards and 2 TDs to give the Broncos a 62% chance of winning. There is only a 16% chance that Andy Dalton has more passing TDs than Manning, but if he does the Bengals are 69% favorites. If Dalton passes for more yards than Manning the Bengals' chances actually go down to 35% because it indicates the Bengals are playing from behind. If Dalton passes for more yards than Manning AND the Bengals rush for at least 100 yards then Cincinnati is the 53% favorite. There is an 11% chance Manning has 2 or more INTs and if he does the Bengals are the 62% favorite. There is a 58% chance Manning has no INTs and the Broncos win 72% of these simulations.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Joe Flacco's road problems have been a major issue and he is only completing 57% of his passes for just 1.1 TDs, but the Ravens are still the 65% road favorite. The key for Baltimore is Ray Rice putting up big rushing and receiving numbers. In the simulations where Rice has 75+ rushing and 35+ receiving yards Baltimore wins 79% of the time. When he has under 60 rushing yards and under 30 receiving yards the Ravens only win 43% of the simulations. If the Ravens defense struggles again and Trent Richardson rushes for more yards than Ray Rice the Browns win 64% of the simulations.

BUFFALO BILLS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging a decent 1.5 TDs per sim, but his 1.5 INTs combined with just a 54% completion percentage makes the Bills heavy 28% underdogs. Houston is averaging nearly 10 more points per sim with Arian Foster putting up a monstrous 136 rushing yards per sim. There is only a 32% chance Arian Foster has under 100 rushing yards and if he does the Bills become the 52% favorite. There is a higher chance (38%) Foster has 150+ rushing yards and if he dominates Houston is the 91% favorite.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

If he is healthy enough to play Ryan Tannehill's Dolphins are getting the edge winning 57% of simulations even though Andrew Luck is putting up the bigger numbers. Luck is projected for 250 yards and a TD. If Luck has 250+ yards and 2 or more TDs the Colts are 60% favorites, but if he has 0 or just 1 TD pass the Colts are 39% underdogs. Miami should run well against the Colts who allow 4.8 ypc (29th in the league). The Dolphins are averaging over 120 rushing yards per sim. If the Dolphins have over 120 yards they are 77% favorites, but there is a 39% chance the Dolphins rush for under 100 yards and if they do the Colts are 68% favorites.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Before Doug Martin ran wild over the Vikings defense, Minnesota was doing very well defending against the run and they still allow just 3.9 ypc even after the debacle vs Tampa Bay. The Vikings are 42% underdogs, but if they can hold Marshawn Lynch to under 3.5 ypc then the Vikings have a 50% chance. But if Marshawn Lynch rushes for more yards than Adrian Peterson then Seattle is the 74% favorite. After a strong start to the season Christian Ponder has thrown 7 INTs in his last 4 games. There is a 69% chance he has no more than 1 INT and if so the Viking are slight 51% favorites, but in the 31% of simuations where he has 2 or more INTs the Vikings only win 22%.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

This is an extremely close game with Oakland winning 50.5% of simulations. The RBs, Darren McFadden and Doug Martin, are both averaging 3.9 ypc with McFadden averaging 3 more yards per sim than Martin. If Martin out-rushes McFadden then Tampa Bay is the 69% favorite, but when McFadden gets the edge Oakland wins 73% of the time. Josh Freeman has 3 TDs in each of his past 3 games. While he only has a 10% chance of passing for 3 or more again this week, if he does the Bucs win 74% of the time. There is a 45% chance Freeman has more TD passes than INTs and if he does Tampa Bay is the 61% favorite, but if he has more INTs than TDs the Bucs only have a 25% chance.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

The Steelers have struggled on the road this year but they are in a virtual tie in simulations winning 49% of the time. Jonathan Dwyer has filled in for the injured Rashard Mendenhall with back-to-back 100 yard games. Dwyer may not get the touches to rush for 100+ yards, but if he averages at least 4.5 ypc then the Steelers get the 58% edge. If the Giants defense holds Pittsburgh under 4.0 ypc and sacks Ben Roethlisberger 4 or more times then NY is the sizable 67% favorite. If Ben Roethlisberger is sacked no more than two times then he is projected for 290 yards, 2 TDs and the Steelers have a 61% chance.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

The Cowboys have suffered painful losses and are 39% underdogs vs Atlanta. Not surprisingly, turnovers play a huge role. Tony Romo is averaging 1.4 INTS which is twice as many as Matt Ryan. There is a 22% chance that Matt Ryan throws more INTs than Tony Romo and if he does then Dallas is the 62% favorite. If Ryan has fewer INTs then Atlanta is the 76% favorite. If DeMarco Murray can play and play well with 5.0+ ypc and at least 50 yards then Dallas has a 50% chance, but if Dallas has under 100 team rushing yards then the Cowboys only have a 27% chance.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Whether Nick Foles or Michael Vick starts for Philadelphia, the Saints are still 67% favorites with Drew Brees putting up big numbers like Atlanta did last week. There is nearly a 50% chance that Brees has 275+ yards, 2+ TDs and no more than 1 INT and if so the Saints are 79% favorites. If Philadelphia can get a dominant 100+ rushing yard game from LeSean McCoy and intercept Brees at least once then Philadelphia is the 61% favorite. If McCoy has under 100 rushing yards then the Saints are heavy 80% favorites.