NFL Week 15: Preview & Analysis

It’s Week 15 in the NFL so AccuScore’s Super computer has the best prediction machine in sports simulating every game 10,000 times to make player and team predictions for every game this upcoming weekend. The Super Computer also has Betting Picks Against the Spread and on Over/Unders for each game listed below. To see these award winning NFL picks, visit the NFL Expert Picks page

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CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The Bengals are expected to bounce back from their last play loss with a 61% chance of winning. The Eagles won on a dramatic last second win and Nick Foles is projected for a solid game -- 23-37, 62%, 250 YD, 1 TD. If Foles does not throw an interception then the Eagles have a 50% chance, if he also throws at least 1 TD the Eagles are 56% favorites. Bryce Brown had a poor Week 14, but is forecasted to bounce back with 88 yards. If Benjarvis Geen-Ellis rushes for more yards than Bryce Brown the Bengals are 83% favorites, but if Brown gets the edge the Eagles are the 56% favorite.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ CHICAGO BEARS

The Bears offense is struggling and the defense is banged up. As a result the Packers are 59% road favorites. In recent Packers-Bears matchups, Green Bay has pressured Cutler and forced multiple turnovers. Assuming Cutler plays there is a 42% chance that he gets sacked at least 3 times and throws an INT. If this happens the Bears only have a 24% chance. If Clay Matthews is not back and the Packers pass rush is ineffective (Cutler sacked 2 or less, no more than 1 INT) then the Bears have a 63% chance of winning. The Packers running game managed to have a big second half vs the Lions. If the Bears, without Urlacher, allow 100 or more Packers rushing yards then the Bears have only a 20% chance.

NEW YORK GIANTS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

The Falcons are clearly struggling but they are the slight 52% home favorites. Matt Ryan only passed for 199 yards with 0 TDs in the Falcons 2-24 loss to the Giants in the playoffs last year. He is forecasted for a huge game playing at home with 320 yards and 2 TDs. If he has more TD passes than INTs then Atlanta is the 64% favorite. But in the simulated Falcons losses Ryan throws 1.5 INTs and just 1.6 TD passes and is sacked 3 times on average. The Falcons are only averaging 82 rushing yards and 3.6 ypc in simulations. If they have 4.0+ ypc and at least 100 rushing yards the Falcons are heavy 75% favorites, but there is a 62% chance they have under 100 yards on under 4.0 ypc and in these sims the Falcons only win 43% of the time.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The Saints turnovers and lack of defense have resulted in their allowing 4 more points on the road (31) than at home (27), but because they are at home this week the Saints are the 66% favorites. Drew Brees has thrown 9 INTs in his past 3 games and there is a 31% chance he throws multiple INTs this week. If he does the Saints are the 47% underdog. If Brees throws no more than 1 INT then the Saints are the 75% favorites. Doug Martin is projected for a huge 117 yard on 20 carry performance. If he has over 100 rushing yards the Bucs are the slight 51% favorite, but if he is held under 100 then Tampa Bay only has a 13% chance.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ ST. LOUIS RAMS

The Rams run defense is ranked in the Top 10 based on yards per carry allowed, but Adrian Peterson is unstoppable at the moment even though the Vikings passing offense is nearly non-existent. Peterson is averaging 125 rushing yards per sim on 5.5 ypc. If the Rams can limit his big plays and hold him to under 5.0 ypc then the Rams are the solid 62% favorite but if Peterson has over 5.0 ypc the Vikings are 61% favorites. Sam Bradford is throwing half as many INTs in simulations as Christian Ponder. There is only an 18% chance that Ponder throws fewer INTs than Bradford and if he does the Vikings are 77% favorites, but if Ponder throws more picks the Rams are 65% favorites.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Even though Kirk Cousins delivered in the clutch vs the Ravens, Washington needs RGIII if they want to win this week. In simulations where RGIII plays the Redskins are 59% favorites, but when he doesn't play the Redskins are 47% underdogs. Cleveland's offense has been steady with at least 20 points the past 4 weeks. They are averaging 21 per sim. If Brandon Weeden has at least 220 passing yards and Trent Richardson has at least 80 rushing yards then the Browns average over 25 points per sim with a 62% chance of winning. If Alfred Morris rushes for more yards than Richardson then Washington is the heavy 78% favorite.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS

After a couple big weeks starting Chad Henne's performance has come back to earth and he returns to Miami as a the 35% underdog. Henne is only completing 50% of his passes for 198 yards. If he completes 60% of his passes for 250 or more yards then the Jaguars have a 50% chance, but there is a 53% chance he completes under 50% of his passes and the Jags win just 27% of these simulations. Ryan Tannehill is also passing for 198 yards but he is completing 60% of his passes. If he completes 60%+ and throws no more than 1 INT the Dolphins are heavy 78% favorites.

DENVER BRONCOS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Ravens are on a two game losing streak and the Broncos are cruising, but the Ravens are still the slightest 50.1% favorite. The Ravens fired Cam Cameron, and it will be interesting what changes the Ravens offense implement this week. But if Joe Flacco completes 60% or more of his passes and Ray Rice averages at least 4.5 ypc the Ravens re 71% favorites. But if the Broncos pass rush sacks Flacco at least 3 times and forces at least 1 INT then Denver is the 65% favorite. Peyton Manning is putting up big numbers with 280 yards and 2 TDs. If the Ravens intercept Manning at least once the Ravens are the 54% favorites, but if Manning throws no INTs the Broncos are 67% favorites.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

The Colts keep winning even though their run defense is one of the worst in the league allowing 4.7 ypc. Arian Foster is forecasted for a big 135+ yard rushing game and the Texans are 79% favorites as a result. The Texans defense is expected to rebound after getting mauled by the Patriots. They are intercepting Andrew Luck 1.5 times per sim vs allowing 1.2 TDs and holding him to just a 51% completion percentage. If Luck throws more TD passes than INTs the Colts chances improve from 20 to 37% and if the Colts also rush for 100 or more yards then Indianapolis is the 58% favorite.

DETROIT LIONS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

The Lions may have lost 5 in a row, but they are big 67% favorites against the reeling Cardinals. If Kevin Kolb is not back the Cardinals QBs are averaging nearly twice as many INTs than TD passes. There is under a 10% chance that the Cardinals QB completes over 60% for more TD passes than INTs, but if this happens the Cardinal are 66% favorites. Matthew Stafford is having a decent game with 270 yards and 1.5 TDs per sim. If Stafford has a great game with 60%+ completions and 2+ TDs and no more than 1 INT then Detroit is the 89% favorite, but if he struggles, completing under 60% with more INTs than TDs, then Detroit is the 39% underdog.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Both the Panthers and Chargers have the talent to be playoff teams but they are a combined 9-17. The Chargers are 64% favorites in this match-up of underachievers despite the fact that Cam Newton is passing for 245 yards and rushing for 55 yards. In simulations where Newton has 250+ passing, 50+ rushing and no more than 1 INT the Panthers go on to win 53% of the time. Philip Rivers only completed 51% of his passes vs the Steelers but he also threw no INTs. If Rivers throws no INTs the Chargers have an 80% chance of winning, but if he throws 2 or more the Chargers only have a 43% chance.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Seattle is the 59% favorite vs the Bills with Russell Wilson posting a better than 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio in simulations and Marshawn Lynch averaging 4.7 ypc and a TD average of 0.7 per sim. If CJ Spiller rushes for more yards than Marshawn Lynch then the Bills chances jump to 65%. If Lynch out-rushes Spiller the Seahawks are 80% favorites. Wilson is posting a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio but Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging 1.2 INTs and 1.2 TDs. If Fitzpatrick has more TDs than INTs (a 39% chance) then Buffalo is the 60% favorite.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS

The Steelers are 54% road favorites because Ben Roethlisberger is playing slightly better than Tony Romo. In simulations both are passing for over 280 yards and 2 TDs, but there is a 37% chance that Romo throws more INTs (Steelers win 73% of these sims) and a 27% chance Roethlisberger throws more INTs (Cowboys win 67% of these sims). Both offenses are struggling running the ball. The Steelers are averaging just 3.2 ypc and the Cowboys 3.3. If the Steelers run for more yards Pittsburgh is the 73% favorite, but if Dallas gets the edge the Cowboys are the 68% favorite.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

The Chiefs 31st ranked passing offense will be without Dwayne Bowe and even though Oakland's defense is 28th vs the pass the Chiefs are only forecasted for 187 passing yards and a 60% chance of scoring 1 or more TD passes. The key for the Chiefs will be Jamaal Charles. If Charles has another 100+ rushing yard game the Chiefs are 62% favorites, but if he is held under 100 the Chiefs have just a 30% chance. Carson Palmer's costly turnovers have killed Oakland all season. He is averaging as many INTs as TDs and is responsible for 1.5 turnovers (INTs + Lost Fumbles) per sim. If Palmer turns it over two or more times the Raiders only have a 45% chance.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The Patriots high powered offense is being held to 25 points per sim but New England is still the 62% favorite. Tom Brady is only getting sacked 1.7 times per sim and as a result is completing a high 65% and posting a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio. If the 49ers sack Brady 3 or more times and intercept him at least once then SF is the 66% favorite, but if Brady is not sacked more than twice and Brady completes at least 65% of his passes the Patriots are 67% favorites. San Francisco will look to dominate running the ball. They are averaging 130 rushing yards on 4.6 ypc in simulations. If the 49ers have at least 125 yards on at least 4.5 ypc then SF is the 62% favorite, but if they are held under 4.0 ypc the 49ers only have a 33% chance.

NEW YORK JETS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

Mark Sanchez only passed for 97 yards but the Jets still won last week and they are 56% favorites this week. Sanchez is facing the Titans pass defense which is worst in the league in allowing opposing QBs to complete nearly 68% for 25 TDs and just 12 INTs. Sanchez is averaging 196 passing yards with just a 54% chance of throwing an INT. If he does throw an INT the Jets chances drop to 43%. The Jets are favored because of their 133 yards rushing per sim vs 112 for the Titans. If Tennessee rushes for more yards the Titans become heavy 76% favorites.