NFL Week 14: Preview & Analysis

Every week, AccuScore’s Super computer, the best prediction machine in sports, simulates every game for the upcoming Week in the NFL. With Week 14 of the 2012 NFL season here, each game was simulated 10,000 times to make predictions on teams and players. The Super Computer also has Betting Picks against the spread and on totals for each game listed below. To see these award winning NFL picks, visit the NFL Expert Picks page

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DENVER BRONCOS @ OAKLAND RAIDERS

The Raiders are heavy underdogs at home with Denver winning 70% of the simulations with a better than 40% chance of winning by double digits. Carson Palmer is projected for as many passing yards as Peyton Manning, but many of Palmer's yards are expected to come playing from behind. Palmer has 280 yards on 41 attempts vs 280 yards on 33 attempts for Manning. If Manning has more attempts than Palmer, Oakland is the 56% favorite because it means Denver is likely behind. If Darren McFadden is back and the Raiders have more rushing yards and Palmer throws no more than 1 INT then Oakland has a 53% chance. But there is a 35% chance that Palmer has more INTs than TDs and Denver is a heavy 90% favorite in these sims.

BALTIMORE RAVENS @ WASHINGTON REDSKINS

Joe Flacco has been extremely inconsistent and by and large he has struggled on the road. The Ravens are 48% underdogs as a result. The Redskins excellent running game is out-rushing Baltimore by over 40 yards per sim. If Ray Rice has more rushing yards than Alfred Morris then Baltimore is the 67% favorite. Ultimately the QBs are the key. If Flacco completes at least 60% of his passes and big play WR, Torrey Smith, has at least 50 receiving yards the Ravens are 60% favorites, but if Flacco completes under 60% then Baltimore has just a 41% chance. RG III is averaging 1.8 passing and rushing TDs. There is a 29% chance he has at least 1 rushing and receiving TD and if so the Redskins are solid 74% favorites.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS

Joe Flacco has been extremely inconsistent and by and large he has struggled on the road. The Ravens are 48% underdogs as a result. The Redskins excellent running game is out-rushing Baltimore by over 40 yards per sim. If Ray Rice has more rushing yards than Alfred Morris then Baltimore is the 67% favorite. Ultimately the QBs are the key. If Flacco completes at least 60% of his passes and big play WR, Torrey Smith, has at least 50 receiving yards the Ravens are 60% favorites, but if Flacco completes under 60% then Baltimore has just a 41% chance. RG III is averaging 1.8 passing and rushing TDs. There is a 29% chance he has at least 1 rushing and receiving TD and if so the Redskins are solid 74% favorites.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Charlie Batch played well vs the Ravens and even if Roethlisberger is not ready the Steelers are 60%+ favorites. The disappointing Chargers need Philip Rivers to not turn the ball over and disappointing RB, Ryan Mathews, needs to have a big game (for once). Rivers is averaging 1.6 INTs + Lost Fumbles per sim and Mathews just 2.9 ypc. If Rivers has no INTs and Ryan Mathews averages over 4.0 ypc then the Chargers are slight 51% favorites. But Jonathan Dwyer is projected for 20 more rushing TDs and if he has at least 60 rushing yards and the QBs have no more than 1 INT the Steelers are heavy 85% favorites.

TENNESSEE TITANS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Andrew Luck and Jake Locker are both averaging 1 INT per sim but Luck is completing a much higher percentage of his passes 64% vs 57% and is +35 in passing yards even though Locker is averaging more pass attempts. With greater passing efficiency the Colts are 66% favorites. There is a 27% chance that Jake Locker his a higher completion percentage than Luck and Tennessee wins 53% of these simulations. Chris Johnson had a good game with 99 rushing yards vs the Colts in Week 8. But like Week 8 a big game from Johnson is not a guarantee for a Titans win. In Johnson has 100+ rushing yards the Titans are favored, but only by 59% and 3 points per sim.

NEW YORK JETS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

The Jaguars are slight 53% favorites vs the Jets, but this assumes Maurice Jones-Drew is healthy enough to get 15 to 20 touches. If MJD is not healthy the Jets are 52% favorites. The Jets have not announced their starter, but regardless of who it is the Jets need to limit turnovers and run the ball. If the Jets rush for more yards than the Jags then they are heavy 78% favorites, but if the Jags get the edge they are 70% favorites. Chad Henne struggled in Week 13 and he is only completing 50% of his passes in simulations. If Henne completes 60%+ with no more than 1 INT then Jacksonville are 77% favorites. If the Jets defense allows under 60% completions by Henne with at least 1 INT then the Jets are 55% favorites.

CHICAGO BEARS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Adrian Peterson is forecasted for another phenomenal game with 5.5 ypc nearly 100 yards and a 55% chance of scoring at least one rushing TD. But even with these big rushing numbers the Bears are the 51% favorite. Christian Ponder simply commits too many costly turnovers to win consistently. Ponder is averaging 1.3 INTs vs just 0.8 TDs. If he has no more than 1 INT then the Vikings are 61% favorites, but if he has 2 or more INTs the Vikings have just a 28% chance. The Vikings defense is holding the Bears to just 3.0 ypc. If the Bears average over 4.0 ypc they are heavy 67% favorites, but under 4.0 the Vikings are the 52% favorite.

ATLANTA FALCONS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS

The Falcons are 56% favorites with Matt Ryan bouncing back from a subpar game last week. He is averaging 300 passing yards and 2 TDs per sim. There is a 50% chance that Matt Ryan throws at least 1 INT and if he does the Panthers become the 54% favorite. Cam Newton is averaging more INTs than TD passes. If Newton has more pass TDs than INTs the Panthers have a 62% chance of winning, but more INTs than TDs the Panthers only have a 27% chance. The Panthers do have a big edge running the ball. If Carolina has over 130 rushing yards they have a 65% chance of winning, but if under 130 yards the Panthers only have a 21% chance.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Bryce Brown is projected for another strong rushing game with nearly 100 yards per sim but this high fumbling rate is resulting in Tampa Bay committing 0.5 fewer turnovers per sim and TB is the 66% favorite. If Brown rushes for more yards than Doug Martin then the Eagles are the 57% favorite, but if Martin outgains Brown (a 55% chance) then Tampa Bay is the 84% favorite. Josh Freeman is putting up very solid numbers with 2 TDs and just 0.8 INTs per sim. If the Eagles defense steps up with 3 or more sacks and at lesat one Freeman interception then Philly has a 60% chance of winning.

ST. LOUIS RAMS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Sam Bradford and Ryan Fitzpatrick are putting up similar passing numbers but the Bills are getting the edge rushing the ball with 5.4 ypc vs 4.5 for St. Louis. The rushing edge is why Buffalois the 63% favorite. If the Rams defense holds Buffalo to 4.5 ypc or less then St. Louis is the slight 51% favorite. If the Rams rush for more yards they are they heavy 71% favorite. Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging just over 1 INT. In simulations where the Bills lose Fitzpatrick averages 1.6 INTs, but in simulations where the Bills win he averages just 0.8 INTs.

DALLAS COWBOYS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS

DeMarco Murray's return revitalized the Cowboys running game and with Murray the Cowboys are just 48% underdogs. If Murray has at least 70 rushing yards on 4.5+ ypc Dallas is actually the 66% favorite. But if Murray is held under 4.5 ypc the Cowboys only have a 44% chance. Cincinnati is getting a big game from Andy Dalton who is projected for 250 yards and 2 TDs. There is a 47% chance he has 2 or more TDs and no more than 1 INT and if he does the Bengals are heavy 65% favorites. If Dez Bryant has another big game with 100+ yards and 1+ TDs the Cowboys are the 56% favorite.

MIAMI DOLPHINS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The 49ers defense is the reason why SF is a 71% favorite vs the Dolphins. They are limiting Ryan Tannehill to just a 54% completion percentage and without a pass TD in half of the simulations. They are also holding the Dolphins to just 3.2 ypc and 80 total rushing yards. If Miami's offense has 250+ passing yards, at least 1 pass TD and 100 or more rushing yards the Dolphins are 52% favorites. Colin Kaepernick is only averaging 0.5 INTs and the 49ers are averaging over 140 rushing yards per sim. If Kaepernick throws no more than 1 INT and the team has at least 125 rushing yards then the 49ers are heavy 88% favorites.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ NEW YORK GIANTS

Drew Brees is averaging nearly 1.5 INTs per sim and is getting sacked 3 or more times in 51% of the simulations. With a lot of pressure the Giants are 56% favorites. There is a 30% chance that Brees does not get sacked more than twice and throws no more than 1 INT and in these cases the Saints win 63%. The Giants offense is putting up a balanced effort with 280 passing yards and 125 rushing yards on nearly 5 ypc. If the Saints lowly rated defense can hold the Giants below 100 rushing yards then the Saints have a 65% chance of winning.

ARIZONA CARDINALS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The Seahawks are on a high winning at Chicago and have been terrific at home. The Seahawks aer heavy 82% favorites winning by nearly 13 points per simulation. Russell Wilson is only averaging 0.7 INTs vs Ryan Lindley's 1.7 INTs (if Lindley starts again). There is only a 15% chance that Wilson throws more INTs than Lindley but if this happens Arizona sees their chances more than double from 17 to 42%. There is also only an 8% chance that Lindley completes a higher percentage of his passes than Wilson. For Arizona to win they need to out rush Seattle and they need to be at least +1 in turnover margin.

DETROIT LIONS @ GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Lions have allowed opposing QBs to complete 63% of their passes for 23 TDs and just 8 INTs so it's not a surprise to see the efficient Aaron Rodgers completing 73% for 3 TDs and just 0.7 INTs per sim. As a result GB is the heavy 77% favorite. If the Lions can limit Rodgers to no more than 2 TDs, force at least 1 INT, and sack him at least 3 times then Detroit is the 53% favorite. Green Bay's defense has held opposing QBs to just 55% completion for 18 TDs and 14 INTs. Matthew Stafford is only completing 55% for 1.8 TDs and 1.2 INTs per sim. In simulation wins Stafford completes 60% for 2.3 TDs and just 0.7 INTs.

HOUSTON TEXANS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

The Patriots are 58% favorites at home and both QBs are putting up nearly identical numbers ~ 270 yards, 1.6 TDs, 0.8 INTs per sim. The Texans and Patriots both average right around 140 rushing yards on a shade over 4.0 ypc. In simulations the Patriots have the surprising 145 to 125 edge gaining nearly 1.0 more yard per carry. This edge rushing the ball is why New England is favored. If the Texans out rush the Patriots they are the heavy 72% favorite. The Texans will look to pressure Tom Brady and if they sack him 3 or more times Houston is the 51% favorite. But there is a 70% chance that Houston sacks Brady under 3 times and in these simulations New England wins 62% of the time.